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Where Will Your Solar Installation Go?

By Drew Torbin, ProLogis
January 26, 2009   |   14 Comments

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14 Reader Comments
Comment
1 of 14
January 26, 2009
1MW does not even come close to meeting the needs of 1,000 homes, at least not in the US. According to the EIA the average monthly household consumption in California is 580kWh. Assuming 5.5 peak sun hours per day and a performance factor of .75 a 1MW system will produce 4,125kWh per day or 125,400 per month - enough for around 220 homes. And California has relatively low electricity consumption; according to the EIA the national average is 936kWh per month which would translate to around 135 households served by 1MW of PV (assuming 5.5 peak sun hours).
Comment
2 of 14
January 26, 2009
Roof top solar installations make a lot of sense, but it will take very, very long time before they become popular, or profitable, in the US. Most likely just after chicken coops in the suburbia back yards become popular, or profitable.

And rightly so. A low-profile roof top solar installation owner in France gets approx. $0.75/kW for his surplus electricity, while in the US we'll be lucky to get 1/10 of that. So why bother?
Comment
3 of 14
January 26, 2009
It will take a long time before they become popular, but in California, with the state rebates added on to 30% federal investment tax credit, and the tiered electricity rates that can reach as high as 50 cents per KWH during peak demand hours in the summer, it is already profitable for some companies.

http://www.treehugger.com/files/2009/01/oldest-organic-produce-company-us-solar-powered-upgrade.php
"the solar system will have the added benefit of saving the company around $60,000 a year. Which means the system should pay for itself in 5 years, and supply free electricity for at least an additional 25—good news for Veritable's bottom line."
Comment
4 of 14
January 26, 2009
Yes, there are many examples of small size solar installations, private and business, but with 50% of the working people and businesses in California having hard time paying rent and salaries, I don't see how they would be able to justify additional $25K, or as in the above example $250K, solar panels on the roof. And at $0.08/kW ROI. Not easy, I'd say.

Generally speaking, small size roof installations are not the solution to the world energy crisis. Only when the Governments and private capital get serious and start investing seriously in large scale solar installations will we be able to see some serious results. And we see signs of this happening in the EU, but in the US we are still forced to look the other way.
Comment
5 of 14
January 26, 2009
Not easy, but not impossible (to calc an acceptable ROI). Agreed that the ROI would be easier to calculate and more attractive at a $0.75/kWh buyback rate. However, Calif, Oregon, NJ, NY, and many other states have incentives and tax credits that add significantly to the $0.08/kWh rate. Your analysis here is simply too simple; ROI must account for true realized payback rates, including tax credits and incentives. What must be clarified here is the difference between the payback of net energy metered systems and the payback of Independent Power Producer systems. The current US system pays better for Net Metered Systems unless the system pays a premium for excess energy. It would streamline the process, and possibly accelerate installation if the feds created programs that enables utilities to pay a higher rate for energy, but I wouldn't say that we are still forced to look the other way. We, en mass, CHOOSE to look the other way.
Comment
6 of 14
why is this a question for utilities? this should be a question for PROPERTY OWNERS and the government's role in all this should be to supply the LOAN FUNDS for property owners who want to install rooftop solar and pay it back (via property tax assessment, ideally) over 20 years, while reaping all the benefits, including feeding excess power to the grid for a feed in tariff of at least 50 cents/kwh.

either we are serious enough about global warming to loan money (guaranteed payback because property tax creates first lien), and offer a modest FIT incentive, or we are not serious enough to slaughter millions of acres of wilderness for remote, centralized "renewable" (ha!) power.

if utilities want in on the game, they are in luck 90% of the US' electricity could be generated if we installed cheap thin-film PV only on brownfields within urban load centers. 90%. 100% if we used existing rooftops.

don't believe the hype, solar is already where it needs to be, in terms of efficiency and potential for rapid scaling. only a few policies need to change - loans and FITs. the FIT incremental incentive would be MUCH cheaper for ratepayers to absorb than paying for utilities' infrastructure (which they will own, in a cruel irony, and will use to hijack us). and the jobs? improved property values? civic engagement? priceless.

oh, and of course, we might end up actually having some open spaces that are not dynamited, bulldozed, poisoned, depleted, and paved into oblivion, while massive GHG emissions warm the planet. and i'm just talking about Big Wind, Big Solar, and Big Transmission - not even getting into coal, oil, or gas!

come on, FITs and loans repayable through the property tax system. it's a total win!
Comment
7 of 14
January 27, 2009
Bingo! You've got the kernel of truth above: Either we are serious about the current global warming and pending energy problems, or we are not. Right now it is definite MAYBE. So we talk...and we talk...but not much happens and not much will happen until and unless we all--including governments, investors, users and vendors--we all agree that this is our priority. Our responsibility. Until then it will be just talk.
Comment
8 of 14
January 27, 2009
#6
"paying for utilities' infrastructure (which they will own, in a cruel irony, and will use to hijack us)"

Look into Smart Grid in this newsletter and other sources for possible confirmation of your claim. Perhaps up to $16 billion in the energy bill specifically for Smart Grid improvements. Think about "demand-side control" and time-of-day metering in one second increments. Add nationwide "decoupling" and it is clear that you are correct.
OK, try to get over it.

The Smart Grid and decoupling will do more to promote the expansion of small solar than seems immediately apparent. By allowing easy integration into the grid, small sources will no longer be just a nuisance. The utilities may even provide those loans for PV and other efficiency equipment as a sweetener for imposing new billing and service practices associated with Smart Grid technology.

I am sometimes thankful for my local Public Utility District
Compromise and pragmatism.
Comment
9 of 14
January 28, 2009
Can I just pick up on the energy consumption of the average US household? WTF?!?! Over 900kWh/MONTH? I live in a 2 bedroom flat in central London (UK) and use approx 2200kWh PER YEAR! The average US household uses 3.5 times more energy than the average UK household (US = 11232/ UK = 3551) . No wonder you all think solar is a pipe dream. You really need to look to your energy consumption.
Comment
10 of 14
January 28, 2009
Country like India where Sunlight available for almost 300 days out of 365/366 days & almost 12 hours/day ,does Solar Power will be economical than Electric Power available from Thermal Power Stations,without Subsidy from Governments?
Comment
11 of 14
January 28, 2009
Anco, you're right: until in the USA it's been mostly talk. But don't forget: money talks, too. Once Germany enacted it's feed-in tariff law in 2004, homeowners could finance a PV system for their roof, cover the loan payments from selling their PV electricity, and be cash-positive from day one. The payback time for PV systems in Germany (depending on the size of the system) is about 10 years. The payments are guaranteed by law for 20 years. The systems last 25-30 years. That's a guaranteed break-even, 10 years of guaranteed profits and then the potential for 5-10 years of reduced costs through net-metering.

The result? PV systems got popular in Germany FAST: in just 4 years. The government reduces the payment level for new systems every year and still the popularity grows. The government recently changed the law to reduce those payment levels even faster and STILL the popularity grows. Why? Because electricity costs (and prices) keep going up...just like in the USA. The model works: PV production increases every year, PV system prices decrease every year; within 5 years PV electricity will be cheaper than power from the utilities and PV will no longer need subsidies. As it is, the monthly burden to rate payers is less than 2.50 Euros ($4) per month about what I pay for a coffee at Starbuck's.

Now consider the USA. We have many states with TWICE the sunshine levels of Germany. Those states can easily replicate or even surpass the success Germany has had with payment levels HALF as high.

So folks, please don't believe that PV mainstream is impossible. It isn't -- it isn't even difficult. It's just a matter of getting started and sticking with it.

YES WE CAN!!
Comment
12 of 14
January 28, 2009
Natasha Long's comment on her 2200kWh average annual electrical use struck a chord with me. My Upper Midwest home's estimated annual use is 3,300kWh in a U.S. state that runs near the national average of 4,591kWh.

That said, it was -4 degrees fahrenheit when I was working outside this morning.

In checking the London weather, it was 45 degrees fahrenheit / 7 degrees celsius. Having spent some time in London, the weather is moderated and mild compared to most of the United States climatologically.

I would prefer that condemnations be based on like scenarios, not drastically unequal comparisons.
Comment
13 of 14
January 29, 2009
"I would prefer that condemnations be based on like scenarios, not drastically unequal comparisons."

Fair comment Peter. I remember being in NY in November a few years ago and surprised at the bitterness of the cold. And -20C is COLD so I can understand that extra heating would be required. Equally, I know that some US states are way hotter than average and housing there needs cooling.

However, given that there are now more ways to insulate your home than ever before, it would save people money in the long run to have their insulation upgraded rather than turn the heating up, not to mention technologies like ground source heat pumps for heating. Equally, there are various cooling methods which are more energy efficient than old fashioned A/C. The question is how many "average" Americans even consider these ideas when they are slightly hotter/colder than usual.

Example. I have a friend who is a taxi driver. He has A/C in his car but never uses it because of the cost. EVERY TIME an American gets in his car the second thing they say is "Can I have some air?" They could just open a window, but they always ask.
Comment
14 of 14
January 30, 2009
yea Suresh. Some day soon sunlight will be the new oil and India will only benifit. I used to live there 25 years ago and marvelled at the power abundance and intensity of the sun. It is to my dismay to hear that Canada is in negotiations with India to sell her more candu nuclear reactors. Question is why with all that sun ? Time for homosapeans to be inventive, creative and smart.
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