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Auto Industry Sees Bright Future for Electric Vehicles

By Art Chimes, VOA and Kevin Eber, NREL
January 14, 2009   |   19 Comments

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"We can wire up in houses easily where there are garages, and where there are not garages, we can rev up in parking lots."

-- Thomas Kuhn, Edison Electric Institute
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19 Reader Comments
Comment
1 of 19
January 14, 2009
After the third wave of IT REVOLUTION followed by the immense infrastructure and investments, the fourth wave of ET REVOLUTION awaits a BOLD ACTION for CHANGE, I think. The new govt is on the basis of THE POLICY OF ENERGY INDEPENDENCY adopted by a Democratic Procedure. Americans have chosen CHANGE, and NOTHING ADVENTURED, NOTHING GAINED ! Energy Independency is the unavoidable task after all, and it can also bring down the fuel costs ultimately as a by-product, which might be enormous enough to cover the upgrade investments. And all the brilliant brains get together in the U.S. for a better life and future. Lastly, without jobs, the economic activity can't be activated, and the working class is broke due to the imported fuel costs, therefore the stimulus project by the govt may be in dire need. THANK YOU FOR YOUR CONSIDERATION !
Comment
2 of 19
January 14, 2009
I think that we are just beginning our transition to EV's of all types. The limiting factor right now appears to be the batteries and ultracapacitors but companies are working to improve them. I think what would help would be technology that permits charging from the road directly to the vehicle.

Wireless energy transfer is being developed right now and it may be possible to implant these devices in the pavement at stop lights in cities with small systems in cars tuned to receive this energy to give a little charge to the batteries. Even if the charge is only for a minute or two, I believe that this type of charge system would provide batteries or ultracapacitors small amounts of power. Just imagine the thousands of vehicles that must travel through stop lights every day.

When I was young, I used to ride the electric buses with overhead lines and it was my delight to do so because there was no pollution and the buses were so quiet running. When the diesel buses came along, I dreaded riding them because of the terrible smell and lound noise.

adrianakau2aol.com
Comment
3 of 19
January 15, 2009
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory report for the Dept. of Energy excerpt:

"If all the cars and light trucks in the nation switched from oil to electrons, idle capacity in the existing electric power system could generate most of the electricity consumed by plug-in hybrid electric vehicles. A new study for the Department of Energy finds that "off-peak" electricity production and transmission capacity could fuel 70% percent of the U.S. light-duty vehicle (LDV) fleet, if they were plug-in hybrid electrics.

The charging capacity already exists on the grid, at night.
Comment
4 of 19
January 16, 2009
Storing electricity is the holy grail of wind and PV, electric batteries in vehicles is one possibility and will encourage more wind and solar than ever before with the added bonus of less transmission required. Interesting times!

um, where is all this lithium going to come from?
Comment
5 of 19
January 16, 2009
Four things need to happen in the next ten years;
First off, electric vehicles need to become common place. Though there is a shortage of lithium available to make the batteries with, it is not at a critical stage yet, and i fear that we must use what ever batteries are available to us.
This being said, these batteries need to be used in cars powered by clean electricity. The log tail-pipe dilemma will choke the atmosphere just as surely as the gasoline will, so clean energy is crucial. Base-line power can provide a good deal of the energy, but the more important thing is that the provided energy is provided by oceanic, geo-thermal, wind and solar sources. These renewable energy sources can be stored for nighttime use, and will lower the cost of energy overall because of the increased supply.
Before this happens, the electric power distribution systems of most nations need to be improved and streamlined. In 2007 alone, 9% of all the energy generated by the US (almost 1.43 QUADRILLION BTUs) was lost to only Transmission and Distribution in America's powerlines (EIA Annual energy review 2007). honestly, fixing this by 25% will save over 400,000,000,000 BTUs of energy.
Finally (data from the same source), 27.15 QUADRILLION BTUs of energy were lost in the conversion process. This is down right appalling. If we use energy that converts it's source into electricity more easily and more efficiently, and I think that we have more than a few technologies that can do this, then the energy we do produce will be USED, instead of wasted.
CCS will not save us, Hybrids won't save us. Blends of current technologies will bring us onto the right path. Geo-Thermal, Nuclear, Oceanic Wave, Solar, Wind, Passive Hydro, and LOWER CONSUMPTION will turn the tide against global warming, but we must be willing to change course. Pointing fingers will not help, and we need to act before its too late. And too late is rapidly approaching form the horizon.
Comment
6 of 19
January 16, 2009
The high cost of fuel this past year did serious damage to our economy and society. After a brief reprieve gas prices are inching back up again. Our nation should not allow other nations to have such power over us and our economy . We have so much available to us in the way of technology and free sources of energy. WE seriously need to get on with becoming an energy independent nation. We are spending billions upon billions in bail out dollars. Why not spend some of those billions in getting alternative energy projects set up. We could create clean cheap energy, millions of badly needed new green jobs and lessen our dependence on foreign oil all in one fell swoop. I just read an eye opening book by Jeff Wilson called The Manhattan Project of 2009. It would cost the equivalent of 60 cents per gallon to drive and charge an electric car.If all gasoline cars, trucks, and SUV's instead had plug-in electric drive trains, the amount of electricity needed to replace gasoline is about equal to the estimated wind energy potential of the state of North Dakota. Why don't we use some of the billions in bail out money to bail us out of our dependence on foreign oil? This past year the high cost of fuel so seriously damaged our economy and society that the ripple effects will be felt for years to come. www.themanhattanprojectof2009.com
Comment
7 of 19
January 16, 2009
There seems to be a fixation of large vehicles in the US. This article and most others assume that future personal vehicles will be electrified versions of the one to three tonne 'tanks' that we use now. Regardless of the renewable energy source, these vehciles will never be sustainable. To achieve any reasonable degree of sustainability we have to first look at the energy intensity of transport.

I use a 'benchmark' of 1 litre per 100 kms or 250 miles per US gallon petrol equivalent per passenger as a realistic indicator of sustainabilty. To achieve this it will mean ultra light personal transport (electric bikes, mobility scooters) or mass transit - buses and trains of all sizes. Small 'people movers' similar in size to today's cars (1-2 tons mass) may also have a role but only if they are carrying 8 or more people.

We should also think in terms of another benchmark of less than about 150 kg of vehicle mass per passenger. Why? because gravity and friction will always be with us and it is an unavoidable fact that the energy needed to overcome them increases with vehicle mass. My wife and I sometimes travel 2 up with our gear (170 kg load) on a scooter of mass 95 kg that can achieve 3 L per 100 km. I'd say that's getting close to sustainability but not there yet.

So where is the debate about adapting road infrasatructure to suit sustainable forms of transport? Maybe we are not having it because there will be less money in selling smaller vehicles?
Comment
8 of 19
January 16, 2009
Re: Joe Craft:

I agree with most of what you say but I would like to make a couple of points
> 400,000,000,000 BTUs is a very big number but is it meaningful. I assume that you mean 'electrical' "energy generated by the US" which probably uses in the region of 25% of fossil fuel energy consumed in the USA, therefore 25% saving in losses of 9% equals about 0.5% reduction in GHG emissions. However, converting all road transport to BEV's (or PHVs) would probably cut transport energy requirement by about two thirds which will probably save in the region of 30% of USA total fossil fuel usage if the electricity for the BEV's is green. These are ball park figures based on UK statistics.
> Example: at 10% collection efficiency the energy landing on about 5% of the Sahara desert would supply all of the Worlds current energy requirements, that's all energy not just electricity which accounts for about 15% globally. I would therefore dispute whether 'nuclear' power is really necessary and is certainly undesirable with its inherent problems, at least in the majority of the world, unless there are no other options.

Re: BEN ROSE

I disagree; using electric transport we could probably generate enough sustainable electricity to sustain our current general transport infrastructure several times over, see my 'example' above. Whether we should I would suggest is a different debate. I think the important point is to implement the changeover as quick as possible, but it is also important to remember transport energy only represents about one third of the overall problem.
Comment
9 of 19
January 16, 2009
The all-electric car will soon be here. Batteries improve every few years. We may well have paper batteries in ten years or less. Hence, lithium battery manufacturers should work diligently to reduce their costs per battery. These paper batteries will also be used to level the grid, because of their cheap price.

Our future will see concentrated solar PV fields near every municipality. Dome shaped collectors, using mirrors, will focus the sun's rays into 'light absorbers' that can be upgraded cost effectively, as efficiencies improve. Already, researchers are reaching 40% efficiencies with PV cells. These absorbers will be dual mode in that not only will they be photovoltaic, but the cooling jacket that optimizes the photovoltaic will also capture heat for themal energy generation.

So, now you don't have to spend money on the transmission infastructure to the same degree.

Also, vertical axis wind turbines will be used near many municipalities. Already, they are reaching efficiencies that make them more economical than conventional sources of electricitiy such as coal. These turbines, able to be used in areas with lower class winds, will gain widespread acceptance near population centers because their adaptation will not require transmission infastructure from the Midwest to the large population centers in the East.

Thin film solar on metal roofs will become common. It just makes sense that long lasting metal roofs will replace asphalt shingles, especially when it allows everyone to create a solar roof in a very cost effective manner.

Better insulating standards and methods will revolutionize home building. Techniques used in ' The Zero Energy Home Challenge' will become commonplace when consumers realize the cost savings, (and CO2 savings) of building homes that are super insulated/designed. After all, why waste energy, (and money), over the 200+ year lifetime of a home when it can be insulated properly to begin with.
Comment
10 of 19
January 16, 2009
Battery only motor vehicles have a problem handling long trips, so a family will need to have a second vehicle. Depreciation expense exceeds the cost of gasoline. I drive less than 10,000 miles per year and my 2001 minivan gets 20 mpg (hwy), for a usage of 500 gal/yr and if gas is at $4.00, that's only $2,000 per year.

There needs to be a way (subsidy?) to get older fuel inefficient vehicles scrapped. Any ideas?
Comment
11 of 19
January 16, 2009
I worry that General Motors is heading off in the wrong direction (again) with the Chevrolet Volt and Cadillac Converj. I completely concur that series-hybrids are the way to go for the near and medium term future, but have to question why they are so damned luxurious looking! I have not seen either in the flesh, but they both look far too "upscale," and consequently will be way too expensive for most buyers. If they have leather, electrically powered seats, sunroofs, CD players and all the other accoutrements of luxury cars, then they will have completely missed the mark. We need a "people's electric hybrid," not a richman's. Rich men don't need to save on running costs, unless they are trying to make some sort of statement to the world. I am aware that high priced vehicles have a much greater percentage profit, so possibly this is the only way GM can survive, but the USA has bankrupted itself, credit has disappeared and with the Volt at a projected price of $40K and Cadillac at a guess, $60K, are these the "cars of the future?" It's time for an "electric VW" not a Cadillac.

I draw your attention to the GM EV-1, which in 1997 achieved 55-95 mile range (depending on how you drove), using LEAD-ACID batteries. They even had experimental versions with diesel and gas turbine back ups - i.e. series hybrids. I drove an EV-1 in 1998. It was quite basic inside and went like a rocket – in fact unnecesarily so. We need a simple EV costing less that $20K. Lead-acid batteries will do the job, backed up by a small gas/ethanol/CNG burning engine. If the American motor industry won't do it, they will lose out to China & India, who will.
Comment
12 of 19
January 16, 2009
In your discussion about USA manufacture of lithium-ion batteries, you did not mention Ener 1, Inc, which, according to their company literature, has plans to be the first large scale, nonautomotive manufacturer of lithium-ion batteries. Is this company for real?
Comment
13 of 19
January 16, 2009
Re: Comments by Geof. Gunning and the GM VOLT:

You took the words right out of my mouth!

TO GM: I WILL NOT BUY A VOLT AT YOUR PROJECTED $40,000 TO $45,000 PRICE! (even though I have the money and love EVs!)

It simply is not cost-effective for me or most Americans. I WOULD pay $20 to $25K for a basic plug-in series hybrid that seats 4 and is capable of 25 miles on batteries only.

Here are some tips on the features it should have to maximize EV-mode range in our northern winters:

1. Windshield defrosting by tin oxide or other resistive film in glass similiar to Ford's Insta-Clear (tm) system of the '80s.

2. Efficient passenger heat by electric blanket like system - 300 watts per passenger not 4000 watts for the whole passenger compartment. Provide a 120 VAC 60 Hz outlet each passenger seat for same. Inverter can be feature of bi-directional on-board batt. charger. Don't even think about charging me $900.00 for the GM electric blanket option! Give me the AC and Walmart will provide the blankets!

3. Based on 0.3 KWh/mile, battery pack can be only 10 KWH. A 50 WH/lb Ni-MH battery would be adequate and weigh only 200 lbs. Li-Ion for the future when longevity is proven.

4. 0-60 acceleration of 10 to 15 seconds is fine. Top speed of 75mph using gas is fine. Nobody needs more tickets.

5. A/C I dont have an efficient solution for, but 95% of the time I don't need it.

Have I described a "punishment car"? Maybe, but consider the alternative of "no car" which is where a lot of middle-class folks might be heading when gas goes up to $10/gallon like in Europe right now. (Just wait!) It might be nice to get to work and the grocery store on a 6 hour charge.

My comments above are based on 9200 miles of EV communting in a home-converted EV (1969 Toyota Corolla Mk II, IL EV lic. #78) in 1979-1981.
Comment
14 of 19
January 16, 2009
From most of my research that I have made. The EV was blasted out of existance do to a loss of economic stability in the infastructure of producing after market parts. Being able to capitalize on working on the automobile and trying to keep up with the technology expenditures, of upgrading for new vehicle mechanics, my company has failed. Now the oil companies have taken the bailout money and bankrupt the american people and lost all of the jobs that are nessary for existance of mankind. The only thing is left is a dead planet. People are falling off the planet with the companies and soon will everything else. Money is no longer the key to existance and oil is soon to drop off along with it.
What do we do when there is nothing more to give. Lets see must be death.
Comment
15 of 19
January 16, 2009
To: David Pacholok

Sorry to steal your thunder! I read your comments about a low cost, low consumption series hybrid with great interest.

On heating: I like the idea of individual heating. After reading your electric blanket idea, I even thought of "electric trousers" and only half in jest! You might even get away with "foot warmers" only, on shortish trips. As everyone knows, when your feet are cold, you are cold. The opposite is true; the feet are marvelous heat exchangers. A transparent plastic screen with slots to stick your shoes through, confining the heat to a small volume round the pedals might do the trick.

On cooling: Having lived entirely in southern climes, I know the misery of driving without A/C in the summer, on those occasions when my A/C system has failed. For me it would be essential. My only possible solution to avoid sapping the battery with a conventional A/C system, is to off-load the power demand for A/C to a different time period, i.e. during the battery charging time. Using household electricity, a reservoir containing a substance with a high latent of fusion (such as lithium bromide solution) could be cooled to a very low temperature in an insulated container and used as a "cold source" during the day. The only power required in the car would be a recirculating fan, used in conjunction with a hand operated flow control valve.

On GM: I cannot see these luxury hybrids keeping GM factories busy, which is what they desperately need. I have this awful gut feeling that they still live in "cloud cuckoo land" and that bailout money will be for nothing.

As an aside, there are corporate bond funds yielding 20% per annum at the moment, due to the extraordinary goings-on in the financial markets. An investment of $40K yields $8K per annum in dividends, more than enough to pay for the installments on a $25K car, with room to spare. Your $40K stays intact and you get a car for "free."

Geoff (bentley@mail.com)
Comment
16 of 19
January 17, 2009
LIthium Ion Batteries conatin twice the power in the same volume, and half the weight in the same volume as Nickel metal hydride batteries.
That's a 4 to one power to weight improvement.
US comanies are developing batteries (A123 systems is one) and given half a chance can provide domestic batteries for Automobiles in the near future.
The solutions to heat and ac issues, and long trips in the short term is to use Hybrid systems where on gasoline can still provide power when the batteries can't.
We have one Hybrid car now, and have no plans to go back!
FYI, I think we need a gas tax of some sort to help ensure the cost justafication of this tehnology.
The tax would only help to make us pay more of the real cost of oil, including environmental issues as well as geo-political costs.
Comment
17 of 19
January 18, 2009
I would hope that the American Industial jugernaught could produce her own batteries but why is everyone still talking about Lithium ion batteries. Did I dream this. Aren't the new lithium titanate batteries far supperior to the conventional lithium ion batteries. Longer life, (40+ years) more charge per weight and volume, full discharge possible but not necessary and so forth

All America has to do is to divert the money going into her overseas wars to wind turbines. A back of the envelope calculation suggests that the money wasted in the recent gulf war would have increased America's electric generation by 20% if it had been used to manufacture and install wind turbines.

A great benefit of electric cars is that with the reduced demand for oil, the supply will last longer and the price will never again go through the roof.

Another benefit is that it will cut the funding from the Mafia's that run many oil producing countries and opress their own people.

Lastly, why are electric cars so expensive. Electronic chips are dirt cheap and improvements are a matter of better programming, not new chip design. Electric motors are cheap and inherently much longer lasting than reciprocating engines. Batteries, as long as they are made to be 100% recyclable should be pretty cheap as time goes on (only a small amount of additional material needed to be mined once the market is saturated)
Comment
18 of 19
January 18, 2009
Through many of the above comments and comments elsewhere it is clear that there is a huge demand for a basic simple volks wagon / deux cheveau / model T Ford type pure electric vehicle. As one writer observed, if America insists on ignoring what the market wants the gap will be filled from overseas. The American car industry and America with it, will continue to become less and less relevant in today's world.

Wake up America
How are you

Don't you know
You could be great again

Just open up your eyes
And smell the flowers

If you will lead
We'll follow you again
Comment
19 of 19
January 18, 2009
The EV still weighs two tons to carry (on average) around 200 pounds. That's 5% efficient. Okay in the 19th century (some of the original steam engines weren't even that efficient), but an engineering travesty in the 21st.

Back to the drawing boards. If you're looking for solar transportation, take a look at http://www.solarevolution.com/prt/.
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Kevin Eber

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About: I write "high profile" documents for DOE's National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), including things like R&D 100 award nominations. From 1999-2010, I wa... more »

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