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The FIT We Need for California

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18 Reader Comments
Comment
1 of 18
December 9, 2008
Alternatives will not even begin to fill the oil supply gap. And most alternatives yield electric power, but we need liquid fuels for tractors/combines, 18 wheel trucks, trains, ships, and mining equipment. The independent scientists of the Energy Watch Group conclude in a current report titled: "Peak Oil Could Trigger Meltdown of Society:"

"By 2020, and even more by 2030, global oil supply will be dramatically lower. This will create a supply gap which can hardly be closed by growing contributions from other fossil, nuclear or alternative energy sources in this time frame."

http://www.energywatchgroup.org/fileadmin/global/pdf/EWG_Press_Oilreport_22-10-2007.pdf

Without very expensive oil, we are facing the collapse of the highways that depend on diesel and gasoline powered trucks for bridge maintenance, culvert cleaning to avoid road washouts, snow plowing, and roadbed and surface repair. When the highways fail, so will the power grid, as highways carry the parts, large transformers, steel for pylons, and high tension cables from great distances. With the highways out, there will be no food coming from far away, and without the power grid virtually nothing modern works, including home heating, pumping of gasoline and diesel, airports, communications, and automated building systems.

This is documented in a free 48 page report that can be downloaded, website posted, distributed, and emailed: http://www.peakoilassociates.com/POAnalysis.html

I used to live in NH-USA, but moved to a sustainable place. Anyone interested in relocating to a nice, pretty, sustainable area with a good climate and good soil? Email: clifford dot wirth at yahoo dot com or give me a phone call which operates here as my old USA-NH number 603-668-4207. http://survivingpeakoil.blogspot.com/
Comment
2 of 18
December 10, 2008
Clifford,

I agree with a lot of what you have referenced regarding the needs and uses for "expensive" oil. That need is all the more reason why Mr. Hunt's article is correct and timely. We need an FIT all throughout the U.S. and not only in CA. We need it for biomass as well as wind and solar power projects.

Every MW of green electricity produced allows the oil or natural gas not used to make that electricity to be used as a transportation fuel. This is all the more reason to support Mr. Hunt's efforts and FIT's.
Comment
3 of 18
December 10, 2008
Clifford, see my link to an earlier column of mine, on peak oil and peak oil exports, in the column above. I agree we will face major problems from peak oil. While the current global economic crisis will allow us to avoid major supply crunches for a couple of years longer, the crunch will now very likely be far more severe because new oil projects are being canceled left and right. So as depletion continues at existing fields, fewer new projects will come online in the next decade to make up for that decline. At the end of the day, however, we have to try our best to make the transition to a renewable future - as quickly as possible. I always try to inject that sense of urgency into my columns.
Comment
4 of 18
December 10, 2008
There is a lot to say about Feed-In Tariffs. But let's just focus on the name. It sounds to the layperson like a "tax on eating"!! It's a terrible name for a policy.

If there's going to be a major campaign, I suggest someone first come up with a better name. The goal for a policy name should be to help convey clearly what it does and to help convey that it's a positive policy pols would want to get behind. This label fails on all accounts.

I don't think I even heard of "feed-in" in the electrical system before this poor translation of a European policy came along. And, selling a "tariff" is akin to pushing a tax in modern America.

So, let's please find a better name, stat!
Comment
5 of 18
December 10, 2008
I don't think we need German-style feed in tariffs.

They will penalize conventional purchasers for the financial benefit of big wind and solar developers.

Other modes are being sacrificed as a result. New England has abundant hydro; and most is located near demand centers; in fact, in Maine and Vermont, settlement extended outward from hydro generators.

The roadblock we face is a fast growing thicket of environmental regulations and 'concerns'. Surpassing them is a daunting task; so much so, that virtually no hydro has been licensed in the last decade in Maine.

As a micro hydro advocate, I can equip a large residence with a lifetime supply of electricity for approx. $3,000. with a minimal footprint; and actually enhance the aquatic habitat. Given our current electric bill, this cost would be paid back in three years; with a grid tie and net metering, excess power would go back to the utility and 'banked' or returned as a std. rate check.

A comparable Skystream or Bergey or S.W. Wind will cost approx. $20,000. and still need a grid tie since the wind doesn't blow all the time or sufficiently.

Several Canadian provinces have embarked on this fiscally conservative and more sensitive approach and are well on their way to becoming electric exporters---British Columbia, Ontario, New Brunswick

And as commentators have noted; renewables don't do much for fuels--heating oil, gasoline, etc. Electric vehicles are a niche market at best; villages, retirement colonies, college/corporate campuses.

I don't think Tamlyn has considered the rate of new exploration off of Greenland, which is breaking free of Denmark and will need a new source of income; or the vast region along the Arctic circle along Russia; nor has he examined the fast growth in NGV's...natural(bio-methane & conventiona) gas fueled vehicles.
Comment
6 of 18
December 10, 2008
cont.....NGV's once established can be fueled with bio-methane generated from municipal waste--organic and septage, Anaerobic digesters. Europe has systems being built that both heat homes and propel vehicles.

These are being considered for new developments that do not have municipal sewer systems, in fact, they may become obsolete artifacts, relegated to the disposal of toxics and hazardous wastes unsuited for 'community-based' digesters.

And best of all, the financing for them is already in place...no FIT's needed!

The big hurdle is fleet conversion over to NGV's, something which is well underway in Europe; but barely being considered in the U.S.
Comment
7 of 18
December 10, 2008
Excellent article, Tam,
Thank you. Good to see more and more people in the US waking up and smelling the coffee.
One additional argument for FITs (or whatever you want to name it) is the fact that project financing is much easier to obtain. Think about it. If incentives are heavily oriented towards tax credits and depreciation, in an economic downturn, fewer and fewer entities need tax credits to offset tax liabilities. That seems to already show in commercial and utility scale projects here in North America.
A feed in tariff is also triggering a grass root movement towards renewable energy. In Germany, about half of the installed PV capacity is generated on residential roofs and properties. Little "Hans Schmo" is setting up a mini utility on his roof and proudly invoices his utility.

I am also glad to hear that the concept was invented in the USA. That should help avoid some emotional reluctance to follow a European lead.

Based on my analysis of the CA photovoltaic market, I think a sales price of $0.35/kWh would be a sufficient stimulus - as long as the federal tax credit remains in place. Then over the next 8 years, the tariff should be curtailed to market price levels and the industry should be able to grow without any incentives. That is called "grid parity" and will first occur in the California residential market.

Let me know if and where I can help pushing....

Marcus
Comment
8 of 18
December 10, 2008
I think operating practices will change with the evolving economies. Cliff, trains are electric now, the just generate their current from diesel generators. Providing direct electrical feeds seems to be only an economic issue and will take care of itself relative to fuel prices.

Washington State has had FIT's since 2005 with up to $.54/kw payments for specificly configured PV systems.

The expense unreliabilty of fossil fuels is as much a motivation for change as the actual cost and environmental considerations.

I think the high oil costs we suffered with last summer are unlikely to return anytime soon due to our awareness of alternatives.
Comment
9 of 18
December 10, 2008
cont.

The Washington State FIT's are a sound incentive because it rewards true production - effective installations. The consumer is the purchaser of the system and has a true interest is in the whole cost of the installation and has a full expectation of productivity.
Comment
10 of 18
December 10, 2008
Despite it's success in increasing the uptake of solar electric, the German system is full of fish hooks.
http://mtkass.blogspot.com/2008/04/double-metering-its-insidious.html

Any government could do far more to encourage the uptake of various renewable energy options, mostly without dipping to the public purse.
http://mtkass.blogspot.com/2007/07/solar-electric-government-role.html

And once we have enough renewables that sometimes we are producing more electricity than is being demanded, demand balancing becomes a reality.
http://mtkass.blogspot.com/2007/10/excess-energy-what-to-do.html
Comment
11 of 18
December 11, 2008
I'm all for promoting solar, wind and other forms of on-site renewable power. I remain unconvinced, however, that having a government agency jack up the going FIT price is the best way forward. Unless very cleverly designed, an inflated FIT could erode the incentive to produce cheaper, more efficient technology. If consumers will buy my systems when they produce power at 25 cents/kWh equivalent, why should I, as a manufacturer, push hard for improvements? Sure, smart firms will continue pursuing advancements and spending ample R&D dollars. But a cushy FIT price would probably let a lot of inefficient producers hang on for quite some time. I say let solar manufacturers duke it out for market share now, without an FIT. On the timescale of long-term problems, like climate change and shrinking oil reserves, a few years won't have any appreciable difference.

Finally, I'd just like to point out that maybe, just maybe, we'll soon see the "true" costs of carbon priced into the economy. It won't happen overnight, but when it does, it's sure to raise the costs of power generated from conventional sources, like coal, by a cent or two per kWh. By then, solar and wind technologies may well be on the cusp of grid parity (wind already is, in some contexts). With conventional power prices higher, and renewable prices lower--that's when we'll be sitting pretty.

http://www.getsolar.com/
Comment
12 of 18
December 11, 2008
Adam, you are right that if the FIT remains at its initial level, there is no incentive to reduce costs. But all FITs in place now, and any robust FIT put in place in California, would decline over time. With declining incentives, manufacturers will be forced to reduce costs.

I believe that climate change and peak oil concerns do require very quick action, such that a few years' delay may make a huge difference in outcomes.
Comment
13 of 18
December 11, 2008
Thank you Tam. Excellent article. The CSI program is producing very little and the new FIT is utility-centric. The key is pricing the FIT at a level that will make installing renewable generation profitable. That's the only way we can generate the volume of rewables we require.
However, you seem to be extolling very large systems to the exclusion of smaller PV that will fit on residential roofs and commercial buildings. One MW of solar PV requires about 300,000 square feet of roof. Very few buildings, especially in urban areas have 7 acre roofs. Even though larger systems may seem more cost-effective, smaller systems have advantages that may offset their cost. They promote rapid large scale deployment; can be completed faster because they require less lead time for siting, permitting and construction; have less impact on the environment; allow widespread citizen and business participation in PV system ownership; promote local investment and lending opportunities and local installation jobs and businesses; are sited closer to the grid (and so have less connection complications and less transmission and distribution losses; and are less vulnerable to major outages. These advantages offset the apparent extra cost of smaller systems. We should push for a FIT for all sizes and types of renewable power.
I don't believe that the FIT must decrease to provide an incentive to reduce sytem costs. I believe that, no matter how high the FIT, every system owner will seek to obtain the best possible system price. Every manufacturer and installer will seek to grow their business by offering more production for less cost. The FIT should decrease to reflect lower costs, not to encourage them.
Marcus: We are working on a bill to provide a FIT for solar PV systems under one megawatt in California and we came up with the same 35 cent number you suggested.
Comment
14 of 18
December 11, 2008
The author writes: "Germany's FIT has been the most successful thus far: it was responsible for about half of global solar installations last year."

I question the metric by which he defines success. After many years of ghastly high FITs Germany now gets 50% of the nearly negligible incremental solar generation of electricity. If you outbid everyone else naturally you will grab a large share of the commodity you are purchasing. What evidence is there that their expenditures have led to better products and ultimately cheaper prices? I don't see much; all I see is a few expensive and poorly sited solar cells in cloudy Germany. It would seem far better to fund increased research for these technologies because they are too inefficient to merit production at this time.
Comment
15 of 18
December 11, 2008
Marcus writes in comment #7 "I think a sales price of $0.35/kWh would be a sufficient stimulus - as long as the federal tax credit remains in place."

In other words, Marcus would like the government to force the energy industry to purchase a commodity that, even after heavy subsidy from the Federal government, is well over 300% as expensive as the average price residential customers in the US pay, and then pass this huge cost on to their customers. Somebody must be doing well in such a deal, but it isn't the public and it isn't the environment. I am reminded of the saying that "no man's life, liberty, or property is safe while the legislature is in session." The legislature will likely like the scheme though because it is a way to spend money without the transparency of taxes or bother with a fair competition among all the other generation schemes that are far better than solar PV.
Comment
16 of 18
December 18, 2008
We see this tired old idea crop up from time to time as renewables fans try to find some way to make their product cost-effective.

I love renewables. I love anything that is a clean source of energy. But I do *not* love guaranteed minimum prices.

A FIT is just the energy company's equivalent of guaranteed prices to farmers for their crops. Very few people think those are a good idea; why would the same thing applied to energy be any different?

Solar and wind and other renewables can compete, but let them do it honestly rather than by rigging the field.
Comment
17 of 18
December 18, 2008
Steven,
yes you are right on the money. I do, in all seriousness, suggest that legislation be passed to force utilities to purchase "green" electricity at inflated rates (and allow them to redistribute the additional cost to the public).
If you want a new industry started you have to pay for it with public money one way or another. Always has been the case, always will be. Look at processors in your computer, airlines, etc. Do you seriously believe any Motorola, Intel or Boeing would exist without massive initial (or even ongoing) tax money subsidies?

Paul Gipe put it simple in one of his public speeches recently: "If you want renewable energy - you have to pay for it". It's as simple as that.

So the real question is - do we really WANT it?

If the answer is yes, then I can guarantee you that FITs ala Germany are the best, fastest and most cost effective way of getting there. They are reduced from year to year to pressure manufacturers on cost, by the way. Everything else being tried yields marginal results. Borrowing Churchill's words - FITs are the worst possible solution with the exception of everything else being tried.

He also said:

"You can always count on Americans to do the right thing - after they've tried everything else."

Maybe we can cut to the chase on this one?
Comment
18 of 18
January 3, 2009
Steven, yes, it's a subsidy and I have no qualms about admitting that. But it's a necessary, and temporary, subsidy. We very badly need more renewables, in massive amounts, and very quickly. By providing this modest subsidy, for a defined period of time, the hope is that we bring online a new industry rapidly, and we all benefit as a consequence. And if my figures above are accurate, the subsidy provided will not be that large. I'm working on a bill for California that will subsidize 5,000 MW of new renewables, if passed, to the tune of 0-10 c/kWh beyond the current market price referent. If it works as planned, this will very likely lead to a net benefit for California due to the direct and indirect economic impacts that will result.
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Tam Hunt

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About: Tam Hunt is managing member of Community Renewable Solutions LLC, a renewable consulting and project development company focused on community-scale wind and sol... more »

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