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The Future of the Electric Car in China

Lou Schwartz, China Strategies
October 20, 2008  |  32 Comments

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A recent New York Times article reporting that a Warren Buffett controlled company will pay 1.8 billion Hong Kong dollars for a 9.89% share of BYD Automotive, the Chinese battery and car manufacturer that plans to sell electric-powered cars in the United States, puts a spotlights on electric vehicles (EVs) and infrastructure in China.

Though attention is now focused on BYD Automotive, there are several other Chinese car companies that are also developing EVs as a result of the technical, legal and physical infrastructure to support alternative fuel vehicles that is currently being put in place. Though there are only a relative few EVs on the streets of a few large cities, the Chinese EV is gaining traction in terms of research and development. In addition to BYD Automotive, the following companies have a gained a foothold in the Chinese electric car industry: the Wanxiang Group, Wuhan Dongfeng, Tianjin Qingquan and Anhui Qirui.

Research and Development Driven by Policy Frameworks

The Chinese EV industry is making progress improving the performance of electric cars. Recently the range of the Wanxiang Group's electric car has increased from a claimed 280 km just one year ago to a claimed range of 380 km today. Slightly behind that range, BYD Automotive is now developing an all-EV with a claimed range of 200 km and the company recently unveiled its F3 EV, with a claimed range of 350 km. The company is also planning to release a hybrid vehicle whose electric battery is said to have a range of 100 km.

As is true of most emerging industries in China, the development of the Chinese EV industry has been given impetus by the evolution of a policy framework. The "863" (Energy Conservation and Alternative Energy Vehicle Significant Projects) initiative, which was launched by the Ministry of Science and Technology in early 2007, has encouraged electric vehicle R&D by universities, research institutes and companies. Then in November of that year the government crafted regulations that, among other things, created an application, examination and permit system for companies interested in manufacturing electric cars. The government has also has issued a draft of technical standards for the EV manufacturing industry that will be released as early as the end of 2008.

Shortly after the launch of the "863" initiative, in December 2007, Beijing added alternative energy vehicles to the list of "encouraged" industries and proposed helping to foster the development of charging stations for the first time.

Most recently, at an August 2008 summit meeting focusing on electric cars, Wan Gang, the Chairman of the Ministry of Science and Technology indicated that over a three-year period the Ministry of Science and Technology would develop a large-scale demonstration project in 10 or more cities to put 1,000 hybrid, fuel-cell and all-electric vehicles on the road in each of those cities and provide the necessary infrastructure for the project.

In the absence of nationwide rules that permit the registration of EVs certain cities in China, including Binzhou and Liaocheng in Shandong Province and Hefei, Anhui Province, have developed their own policies that have allowed a limited number of EVs to be used in those locations. Local regulations governing such matters as the registration of EVs, tax rebates and direct financial subsidies are springing up throughout China.

To date, the Chinese government has invested at least 800 million Yuan [US $118 million] in the development of a Chinese EV industry.

State-Ownership of Businesses Is Helping To Grow the Industry

As is true of other renewable energy inudstries we have written about, the role of large state-owned enterprises is helping to catalyze the development of this emerging Chinese EV industry. In June 2007 the State Power Grid Corporation issued a plan that provided for the conversion of a certain number of public transportation vehicles, taxis, waste disposal trucks, etc. to EVs on a trial basis in certain cities and provinces. The plan also included the development of charging stations.

The goal of the plan is to have 4200 electric public transportation vehicles and 535 taxis in its coverage area.

Automotive companies such as BYD Automotive and the Wanxiang Group, who have invested many hundreds of millions of Yuan in the development of an electric car, have advocated that the State Power Grid Corporation speed up its construction of charging stations and the organization has responded favorably.

With an average cost of 250,000 to 300,000 Yuan for each EV charging station, in order for the State Power Grid Corporation to develop a nationwide network of charging stations, the company will need to receive further authority from the NDRC.

Recently certain experts from the Chinese car industry sent a letter to Premier Wen Jiabao suggesting that the central government provide special support and establish preferential policies with respect to electric cars. Their suggestions included establishing differential subsidies for electric-powered vehicles and having government ministries preferentially purchase EVs to encourage the development of the industry.

The experts also suggested that the government research the feasibility of reducing taxes for both electric car manufacturers and consumers. Other suggestions included the development of industry standards and construction of 220-volt charging station power outlets to create a quick-charge network.

Manufacturers Looking at Export Possibilities

Chinese EV manufacturers already are eying the export market for their cars. At the end of last month, the Italian company IDB Group announced that it had entered into an agreement with BYD Automotive for IDB to sell and service BYD cars in Italy. To this end the Technical Subcommittee of the China Electric Vehicle Association is participating in the development of international fuel-cell EV safety standards.

With Chinese automakers on track to build 10 million cars per year in the foreseeable future, the EV industry is not even a footnote in production statistics.

But recognizing that the flood of internal combustion vehicles currently being manufactured and sold in China will continue to exacerbate China's environmental degradation and dependence on imported oil, the Chinese have shown a willingness to embrace the EV, an eagerness to develop an indigenous EV industry, a desire to migrate to the EV and the capacity to make incremental improvements in the manufacturing process that will bring down costs in this industry as has been done in countless other industries in China.

Continued breakthroughs in the development of battery technology, however, will be a key factor in determining the future of EVs in China and in this regard it is likely that the Chinese will rely on the innovation of the West.

Lou Schwartz is president of China Strategies LLC, and publisher of the China Renewable Energy and Sustainable Development Report and the China Aluminum Industry Report. He has degrees in East Asian Studies from the University of Michigan and Harvard University where he studied Chinese language and literature, economics and law, among other disciplines. Lou also earned a J.D. from George Washington University Law School.

Recognizing that the flood of internal combustion vehicles currently being manufactured and sold in China will continue to exacerbate China's environmental degradation and dependence on imported oil, the Chinese have shown a willingness to embrace the EV, an eagerness to develop an indigenous EV industry, a desire to migrate to the EV and the capacity to make incremental improvements in the manufacturing process that will bring down costs in this industry as has been done in countless other industries in China.

Related Links

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32 Comments

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ANONYMOUS
March 16, 2011
please find our electric car:
http://electric-car.chinaeu.de/
Steve Stark
Steve Stark
November 7, 2008
Geoffrey,

You are asking for the independent test results...are you not? We are still waiting for the intense independent verification of our findings. This is very exciting for us and we look forward to announcing them when known.

Please remember that the power output disclosed will change and improve with additional custom photovoltaic technology that can be more optimized for our light source and gains from improved manufacturing methods to produce even brighter light. We can create long lasting power cells at low costs using our Award Winning light source technology that has no waste byproduct-ultra clean technology.

The world needs this technology and we are proud to be the ones to launch the Litroenergy Power Cells so you never need to charge your cell phone, MP3 player or your electric vehicle for 12+ years. If your aware of any other technology that can do this...please let me and anyone else know if it compares even closely to what we can do.

Sincerely,
Steve Stark
Geoffrey Gunning
Geoffrey Gunning
November 6, 2008
Mmmmm - no reply to the most important question. Draw your own conclusions.
Geoffrey Gunning
Geoffrey Gunning
October 30, 2008
If, as you state, that there is no shortage of tritium, it being an unwanted by-product, then I would assume that it is relatively "cheap." The question remains, therefore - how much energy can you extract from its' use. More specifically, what is the energy density in kWH/kG of your tritium/phosphor/solar cell combo?
Steve Stark
Steve Stark
October 27, 2008
Tritium is a byproduct in reactors producing electricity. They pay for disposal of this gas. There is no shortage of Tritium.

I hope this helps.

Sincerely,
Steve Stark

P.S. I had no desire to lecture...it was just the copy from Wikipedia as a general reference.
Geoffrey Gunning
Geoffrey Gunning
October 26, 2008
Please don't try to lecture me on isotopes - you are talking to a graduate chemist, long-time research chemist and X-ray spectroscopist. I wouldn't care if the universe was stuffed with tritium - we don't have any significant amount on earth. If your company has a spaceship that can go trolling through the universe for tritium - great, but it doesn't seem likely.
Steve Stark
Steve Stark
October 26, 2008
Wikipedia: Tritium (pronounced /ˈtɹɪt.i.əm/, symbol T or 3H, also known as Hydrogen-3) is a radioactive isotope of hydrogen. The nucleus of tritium (sometimes called a triton) contains one proton and two neutrons, whereas the nucleus of protium (the most abundant hydrogen isotope) contains no neutrons and one proton.

It is "one" of the most abundant gases in the universe.

I hope this helps.

Sincerely,
Steve Stark
Geoffrey Gunning
Geoffrey Gunning
October 26, 2008
"Tritium is one of the most abundant gases in the universe." This simply isn't true. Hydrogen is the most abundant element in the universe. I can't believe that you don't know the difference. The standing concentration of tritium on earth is minute.

I should be very interested to know how you create tritium "cheaply." Frankly, I remain extremely skeptical.
Steve Stark
Steve Stark
October 26, 2008
Geoffrey,

Thanks for looking at just one of our patents pending. Tritium can be created easily and cheaply however this can not be disclosed in an open forum. Tritium is a waste byproduct and we have found a conventional use for it. Tritium is one of the most abundant gases in the universe. The use of Tritium has been around for a long time and is well documented when used with phosphors. The way we encapsulate the Tritium to make is safe and the type of advanced phosphor to create very bright light is unique, this has a ton of applications including the ability to generate electricity when used with solar cells.

We look forward to disclosing the independent review of the electrical power generation. The world needs to look outside of the box to find solutions to the electric car, etc....this has strong potential to get us there.

I understand the world wants to be skeptical, that is why we are having independent testing results being performed.

Sincerely,
Steve Stark
Geoffrey Gunning
Geoffrey Gunning
October 25, 2008
I took a look at the Litroenergy patent. As I suspected, it uses tritium gas to excite the phosphor. Nothing new there – signs using this technology have been in use since the 1970's, at a minimum. I worked for a company in UK that made them in 1973. They went out of favor due to the dangers of disposing of radioactive material.

The idea that a solar panel can generate electricity 24/7 for decades without any external influence obviously has some attractions, but only for novelty and very special uses such as space applications (cost no object) and remote repeater stations - even underwater. But the energy and power density is very low and of little use for powering vehicles, or anything else for that matter. You cannot mine tritium & it does not grow on trees – the amount occurring in nature is described as "negligible." It has to be made in nuclear reactors, so any thoughts of it being "cheap" are out of the question. I'm sure that the "energy in to manufacture" to "energy out" ratio of a tritium/phosphor/solar cell combination is utterly gigantic.

"The world can run on light" he claims. Light from the sun, maybe, but not from this! Steve Stark is either very ill-informed or just clueless. The idea of making tritium in a nuclear reactor, using its' beta emission to excite a phosphor, capturing that light in a solar cell to generate meager amounts of electricity is commercially absurd, in the extreme. You'd be better off burning candles.

P.S. In the patent they refer to a list of rare earth elements, including Mn and Bi – these are NOT rare earth elements. I'm surprised at this very obvious error. A loss of credibility.
Kent Secor
Kent Secor
October 25, 2008
Steve,

Thank you for your reply, I will await the testing information. This sure seems like an ideal product for EVs of all types.
alok misra
alok misra
October 24, 2008
Tata nano car when upgraded to electric version is the cheapest and most advanced Auto in its class and will be a common vehicle.Already Electric cars priced at around USd 4500 are available and can be exported if any one likes.
Tata car would ve priced at around USD 2500 and is not a toy car for sure.
All these technologies that Er Stark is developing will go to these type of cars.
I believe the future of giant vehicles consuming huge energy for transportation of passengers could be very well over in about two yeas time.
If you like you can book Nano which goes 28 Km in one liter of Gas right now for delivery in in 2009 .It can carry four person .
you can take a bet where exactly will be the next auto hub!
Batteries are a problem but I expect nuclear powered batteries could be very reliable and ultimately built to safe standards.
Steve Stark
Steve Stark
October 24, 2008
Kent,

We currently have our materials/power cells which are now being independently tested, and I think those will be the best measurements to disclose. I think they will be the most reliable and a great base point to figure that specific application question for you.

It is important to note we are constantly improving our material brightness and efficencies in the solar cells being used, but the reliable and un-biased independent testing results sure will go a long way.

We look forward to releasing those figures when available.

Sincerely,
Steve Stark
Kent Secor
Kent Secor
October 24, 2008
Steve Stark,

Thanks for the information about this new technology. Well it has been around since its invention in June 30, 1987; by Robert D. Webb.

Great to see this considered application. I see you are in the company that is seeking to produce this product, perhaps you could answer a question for me, regarding possible application.

Could you give me some idea of what weight a Litroenergy /PV stack would be to have the power density for a 500W 36V dc motor?

I am thinking here of a DC motor powered bicycle, the starting point for most into EVs.

Thanks,
Kent
Kent Secor
Kent Secor
October 24, 2008
I found this information, http://pesn.com/2008/10/22/9501495_Litroenergy_Power_Cells/

"Now, with this concept of joining their Litroenergy sheets with solar thin film sheets, MPK may win the NASA contest again this year. Posting this idea for the first time last Friday (the contest deadline) on the NASA contest website, they have already risen in the top tier among 766 contestants this year. (Ref.)

The combining these two technologies – the thin-film solar and the LitroSpheres™ – would entail very thin, repeated layers of each so that a large number of stacked sets would comprise a significant power density. They call these versatile hybrid species, Litroenergy Power Cells, which can be scaled from micro applications to large utilities.

How long will the wait be until we see this on the market? According to Steve Stark, Director of Marketing for MPK, product could be rolling out of manufacturing plants in as little as three months from now, depending on financing. The technology and players are already in place, and the independent testing of this combination will be completed in a few weeks. The results from MPK's in-house testing have been very encouraging. "There is a lot going on behind the scenes that I can not disclose at this time, but it is huge" said Stark. "

The idea is make a sandwich of light emitting thin film sheets with thin film PV sheets.

Could work, depends on power density per weight and cost.
Dominic Jermano
Dominic Jermano
October 23, 2008
China currently embraces the electric motorbike to a very high degree, I can only see them taking more strides toward electric cars being charged through the use of Geothermal Energy....I do think China will eventually use Geothermal Power to power its trains across China, and jointly with Russia and India. These big three will ultimately define Asia as conservationists to transportation ecology power.

http://my.nowpublic.com/world/bridge-prosperity#comment-219771
Howard Fuller
Howard Fuller
October 22, 2008
It is indeed encouraging to see that none of the above comments denigrate EV's because "the power to recharge them comes from coal-fired generation". It's nice to see that canards such as this can indeed die a natural death. I'll be standing in line with everyone else when these vehicles make it to our shores. Too bad GM and Ford aren't negotiating a license to the technology.
Thomas Blakeslee
Thomas Blakeslee
October 22, 2008
Great article and very encouraging that the Chinese are moving ahead so effectively.
The lithoenergy stuff is way off topic. It is basically the same principle as the old glow-in-the dark watche faces which produced very little light. It is essentially the power of atomic decay and it was banned because of the radiation danger.
Steve Stark
Steve Stark
October 22, 2008
Solar cell application prior to our disclosure for vehicles is the amount of space available on a vehicle for the "sun" solar power to generate electricity and that would not be powerful (not enough space) to produce the required electricity needed to run the vehicle.

We are not using solar cells in the traditional sense...flat and nothing in the way of the light (clouds, shade, night, etc). Our material is sandwiched between thin film solar cells so the layering effect is like having a football field or greater sized large solar cell that is not affected by weather, darkness, shade and is generating electricity 24/7 for 20+ years. The material is light weight and the Litroenergy Power Cells will be designed for the application and the specs will be released soon.

Does anyone have Warren's phone number? I would love to have a conversation with him and show him what we are doing.

Sincerely,
Steve Stark
Brendan Gallivan
Brendan Gallivan
October 22, 2008
Steve,

I appreciate the information on Litroenergy, but as I read it, they would be used as a source for solar cells to produce energy, and are not an electrical source in an of themselves. If that is correct, the solar cells would actually produce the electricity. Currently, there is no solar panel that could fit on a car and directly power an electric engine of a size required to power a car (without charging a battery first) so I fail to understand how this technology would replace or obsolete batteries. If anything, it would complement batteries, as someone else stated. Convince me that this is incorrect, but until then, you are off base.
sharma kowtha
sharma kowtha
October 22, 2008
Technology is not stagnant. It is changing every minute. Waiting for the ultimate perfectionism before we venture out to embrace new technologies is neither prudent nor advisable. All said and done , EV technology based on storage batteries has progressed so much, it is better to proceed ahead and introduce EVs in large scale and see their road-performance. It doesnot mean that research on other technologies should stop. Fuel cell technology is one that has great potential. Let us leave it to Market .....to decide which one ultimately should embrace it.......Sharma kowtha
Malcolm Chaddock
Malcolm Chaddock
October 22, 2008
Litroenergy Power Cells sound like classic vaporware. Come back when you have some in production. For now, companies that have proven technology will rule the market until new ideas become real enough to consider.
Steve Stark
Steve Stark
October 22, 2008
Excellent discussion, however there is no need to charge this material and the sun has nothing to do with Litroenergy Power Cells. The fact that we use solar cells or hybrid thereof, will only drive down the cost of solar cells for everyone. We anticipated the growth of Litroenergy Power Cells to be the largest user of solar cell materials, as we layer the nano-solar cells with our light material.

We are planning for press releases and will define the specs at that time. However, we are constantly improving the material brightness and efficiency of the solar cell being used.

This has great potential for the world, and happy to bring this to your attention.

Sincerely,
Steve Stark
Ib Olsen
Ib Olsen
October 22, 2008
My 2 cents on Litroenergy Power Cells. According to Mr. Kohnen's US patent application #20070200074, the invention for light emitting technology, which is supposed to power the PV cells, is based on: "The present invention provides self luminosity by means of a plurality of glass or polymer microspheres containing both a light-emitting phosphor and a radioactive gas. The "soft" emission of electrons from the beta emitting gas cannot penetrate the glass or polymer wall of the microspheres, thereby constituting no radiation hazard. A further advantage of the present invention is that the plurality of individual containment microspheres minimizes the escape of radioactive gas in the event of any physical damage to an assembly of such microspheres. A still further advantage of the invention is that the radioactive gas completely surrounds the phosphor particles, thus causing light emission from one hundred percent of the surface of the particles."

It can be argued that radioactive materials produce "free" energy, but none of the available literature provides insight into how much energy that will go into making the device.
Lauryn S
Lauryn S
October 22, 2008
Julie, I've thought the same thing - I think that putting such outlets on parking meters as older meters are replaced would be ideal. Minutes for use of electricity could be metered in a similar way to time on the parking meters. I assume that some sort of a lock would have to be installed or placed on the charging mechanism of the car to ensure that freeloaders don't try to remove the plug and use energy that someone else is paying for. I do think I've read that hopefully hotels would start providing plugs to guests so the cars can charge overnight (hopefully powered by solar and wind!). Maybe one day soon we can start to see pit stops along the highways with banks of (solar and wind powered) electric charging stations - and from small-screen movies to mini golf, the venues can be creative in offerings to entertain travelers while they wait!
Julie Rosenthal
Julie Rosenthal
October 22, 2008
Could municipalities install public solar charging stations on existing street light poles, with outlets along the curbs of parking spaces ? Could the cost to install them be included in infrastructure bonds or taxes? Could the maintenance be handled by semi-public utility companies similar to sewer, water and waste management ? Could apartments, office, retail, industrial and commercial buildings install solar charging stations on their roofs and send excess power to public charging stations? Could a meter track the power being sent to the public charging station, and deduct its value from the building's property taxes?
Stuart Thomson
Stuart Thomson
October 22, 2008
I had a quick look at the Litroenergy power cell information and believe that the two technologies are mutually exclusive. One need look at the energy delivered by the sun in (max value 1,360 W/m² - much lower in most parts of the world) and the associated solar conversion efficiencies (<20%) to see that a standard car will always require energy from an external source( large solar collector at home?). The cost effectiveness of this is likely to be highly unattractive for sometime yet, and one will still need an energy storage device in the car.

This technology replaces the batteries associated with solar cells, not the batteries in cars. These lead acid batteries employed in solar systems make up 45-55% of the cost (Balance of System).

If the world is serious about displacing oil when moving people or goods, some form of energy storage system must be employed in the mode of trasnport. One hopes that the energy density of batteries approaches that of hydrocarbons one day, still a very long way to go.
Michael Halpin
Michael Halpin
October 22, 2008
With global warming we can expect the end of the I.C.E. age[internal combustion engine] and E.V.'s will take their rightful place.

The big question is, where will we store/produce the electricity to power these vehicles?. Will it be batteries, fuel cells or a combination of both?

If I were Warren Buffett I would have a dollar each way and also bet on the Europeans who are favouring hydrogen fuel cells.

Mike H. founder HYDROGENHEADS
Adrian Akau
Adrian Akau
October 21, 2008
Steve. The Litroenergy Power Cells should be good to develop but the article from which you quote does not provide any information on the power density of the material or the estimated cost per watt. This technology may be for the future but it has no actual direct application to EV's right now.

adrianakau2aol.com
Steve Stark
Steve Stark
October 21, 2008
www.createthefuturecontest.com/pages/view/entriesdetail.html?entryID=2692

Here is a link about the new power source if anyone is interested.
Steve Stark
Steve Stark
October 21, 2008
This is a poorly timed announcement and bad investment.

There was an announcement on the 17th of October of a new electrical power generation technology (eco-friendly) that has potential to replace batteries with Litroenergy Power Cells that run on a light source that lasts 20+ years. The world can run on light! The NASA Tech Brief's 2007 award winning light source self-illuminating micro particles-material has been announced to generate electricity 24/7 for 20+ years by being placed on or sandwiched between solar cells.

This is a game changer, and what we know of as "Batteries" should be replaced with light powered - Power Cells.

Making a billion dollar + bet on batteries after this new technology was announced, It's something I would reconsider if it was my money.

Sincerely,
Steve Stark
Adrian Akau
Adrian Akau
October 20, 2008
It is very encouraging to know that China is committing itself to EV development. They already have over 168 million combustion engine vehicles on the road and the numbers are growing rapidly. It is important for them as it is for us to establish the EV or EV hybrid as a reliable source of transport to circumvent high oil demands and the production of pollutant gases.

adrianakau2aol.com

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Louis Schwartz

Louis Schwartz

Lou Schwartz, a lawyer and China specialist who focuses his work on the energy and metals sectors in the People's Republic of China, is a frequent contributor to Renewable Energy World. Through China Strategies LLC, Lou, who is fluent in...
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