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Mileage Costs of Plug-in Hybrids

By Scott Sklar, The Stella Group, Ltd.
August 26, 2008 | 39 Comments

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I continue to read with optimism the PHEV (plug-in hybrid vehicle) concept, especially the Chevy Volt. TESLA also put out a paper a while back (July, 2006) regarding its entry. My question is this: At US $0.10-0.12 a kWh from my local utility, how much will it cost me to drive the Volt's fully charged 40 miles? Since I don't have any idea how many "miles per kWh" it takes, I can't make the calculation...and I've looked at BTU and megajoule equivalents and I now have a headache. -- Art F., Dallas, TX

Art, I am glad you asked this question because I have heard from many people the need to address this issue.

To figure this out, I first calculated the average cost per mile of a car powered by gasoline. The gasoline car at US $3.50/gal driving for the equivalent of one gallon of gas, say 20 miles, comes to $3.50/20 = $0.18 per mile. If we assume that the nationwide average fuel economy for autos is approximately 25 mpg, then we're looking at US $0.14/mile for gasoline @ US $3.50/gal. You also have to factor in the cost of motor oil, say US $50/oil change for 5,000 miles, which adds $.01/mile to the gasoline cost, or a total of US $0.15 per mile.

I then asked then Dave Goldstein, President of the Electric Vehicle Association of Washington, DC, and a nationally-known electric-vehicle expert, to provide the calculation on electric vehicles. He states that, "on electric power only, [the] Volt should get approximately 40 miles all electric range (AER) on about 10 kWh or $1.20 (@$0.12/kWh) /40 = $0.03/mi AER. I don't have a solid figure yet on what the anticipated Volt mpg will be on gasoline (which powers a generator that recharges the battery.) I will have to check the claimed fuel economy on *gasoline only* from the Volt Website. Rough guesstimate: 45-50 mpg, about equivalent to a Prius, which @ 3.50/gal /47.5 av. mpg = $0.07/mi. So I would expect averaging more gasoline than electric would hover around $0.06 per mile."

I would like to put a little rain on this parade regarding environmental benefits of electric-grid charged vehicles. For pure electric vehicles, while they may have zero tail pipe emissions, the electricity that charges their batteries can come from coal, possibly oil, etc. and emissions from power plants make this a less optimum approach.

Plug-in hybrids help alleviate this because they may be able to provide peaking electric power back into the grid when not in use. This would then offset electricity from the older, more polluting electric power plants. Renewable-based electricity tied to pure electric vehicles has the best emissions profile, and use of plug-in hybrids on a large scale would aide greater use of intermittent renewables such as solar and wind by providing storage.

So it is critical to look at the entire fuel cycle when looking at emissions. But I must say, I truly enjoy driving my Prius and I am achieving high 40's/low 50's in miles per gallon, especially these days.

Green Power, Other, Energy Efficiency

The information and views expressed in this article are those of the author and not necessarily those of RenewableEnergyWorld.com or the companies that advertise on its Web site and other publications.

39 Reader Comments

Comment
1 of 39

robert-jordan-155648

August 26, 2008

The high cost of long range batteries will continue to be the killer of the all electric car. Regardless of the energy source to charge them, batteries have always been unjustifiably expensive.

The only responsible way to roll out all electric vehicles is to bundle them with a grid tied solar array to offset polluting sources of electrictricity. That or a mandated offsite wind or solar installation to somehow offset the drain on the grid.

All electrics could be, or rather, should be in the low $20k range in a year or two. Why not, there are so few moving parts. Inexpensive ink solar panels (non-silicon) should be inexpensive as well. If the oil barrons leave the white house we may just see the beginning of the future that we should have already begun in the year 2000.

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2 of 39

brian-kelly-155665

August 26, 2008

The cost of turning the oil into a gallon of gas is about equal to the electricity needed to go an equal distance. No rain on the parade.

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3 of 39

marv-kausch-155664

August 26, 2008

Plug-in hybrids, when charged from U.S. electricity sources are virtually 100% powered by domestic energy. Most commuters will use very little gasoline. Domestic electricity is generated by a mix of coal, nuclear, hydro, natural gas and renewable sources. None of these are part of the imported oil sources, where the US continues to increase its demand, now importing 70% of all oil requirements.
T. Boone Pickens' Plan is a major step in the right direction: make electricity from renewable sources and power vehicles with natural gas. However, the Volt does this even better by running on a mix of available domestic electricity sources, charging at night.
You may be amazed to learn that in CA with its 18,000,000 vehicles, that literally millions of them could be plug-in hybrids charging at night from the existing grid exactly as it is now. PG&E states that these PHEVs would likely be charged from a mix of natural gas and hydro generation. Most important: these are domestic energy sources, and in a way, follow Pickens' recommendation to run vehicles on natural gas.
Some taxis are already running on natural gas, 3000 PSI tanks hold only 29% of the energy per volume as compared to gasoline. So these vehicles must fill up 3X as often from very few filling stations, and the 3000 PSI filling connection is not what you want grandma to handle. In contrast, electricity comes to virtually all homes and PHEVs are easily connected for night recharging. It's so easy, "a cave man could do it."

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dag-johansen-155667

August 26, 2008

"So I would expect averaging more gasoline than electric"

Why the assumption of averaging more gasoline than electric? You SHOULD assume the reverse. Most people drive less than 40 miles per day, so as long as they plug in their car every night, they will almost always be driving electric miles.

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joe-public-76566

August 26, 2008

Everyone always add's this stupid little extra negitive about Electric Vehicles being charged by coal plants or some other co2 polluting source. With the hugh amount of increase in solar, wind and soon to be home solar systems its a mute point. Its definately not an equal trade. EV's are way more efficient. The EV will change the world like the computer did. Demand for alternative fueling source will be build because thats what we want. Government will still get their slice in some tax form. Although they won't need as much because they will be saving on expenditures. These savings will come from better air quality, which is better health for us. cleaner highways and roads. The cost of oil will have to come down because we'll need less of it. So products using oil should be cheaper. plastics, ashvalt roads, etc. We won't need to send out army's to fight for oil rich countries so we'll save there. Maybe more money will stay in North America instead of China and India. Once oil is out of the equasion there should be a domino effect of econimic growth. Businesses should save more money so they'll make more money... its a win win situation.
But if you don't want to wait for these things to change, then look into
EV conversions and get on the electric band wagon today.
I bought my first cordless electric lawn mower and wow... no gas, and no oil. No running to the gas station, and its quieter. I have a hugh lot so as long as I mow once a week no problems, but a second battery can solve that.
The electric future is sweet.
Look into electric Car clubs and find out the truth about these cars invented 100 years ago.... thats right folks before the damn internal combustion world polluting stinker of today.
Ok time to get off this rant....

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brad-duncan-155702

August 26, 2008

If we're considering a *TRUE* lifecycle of energy usage, it would be interesting to factor in the battery life of these electric cars (as well as other maintenance of internal combustion cars). I know that while most Americans change cars like they change their underwear, I am not one of those. When I buy a car, I keep it for 5 years or more generally speaking.

Unfortunately, I have not had good experiences with rechargeable batteries for longer than about 2 years. This seems to be the amount of time before the battery would not hold a charge long enough for me to use the device efficiently. The same has been true with current car batteries (I know the new batteries are different than the current ones). Anyway, does anybody know how long these new batteries are going to last (realistically)? If they last much less than 10 years, then the cost of those batteries should also be factored into the cost per mile of the car (just like the motor oil was factored in above). Anybody have any insight on that?

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7 of 39

matthew-homola-68738

August 27, 2008

I don't have an EV (Electric Vehicle) myself yet, but have been reading about them. Seems battery life is hugely variable depending on how you drive, how you charge and what kind of batteries you use. Lead-Acid batteries, which have been common for do-it-yourself EV's are reported to last around 5 years, which looks like about 10 cents per mile ($5000 dollars for batteries that last 50,000 miles). Toyota RAV4 EV's with NiMH batteries are reported to still be going strong at 100,000 miles, though with slight performance degradation on some. No price for batteries there, so no cost per mile estimate. But even with 50,000 mile battery life you would have to add in depreciation of a ICE (Infernal Combustion Engine ;-) due to part of it's engine life being used up to compare properly. That's also about time to change the timing belt and waterpump, half the life of the alternator and clutch, etc. I think EV is the answer, not PHEV (Plug-in Hybrid EV). Why drag around that ICE and generator on all the short trips, therebye reducing battery range and lifetime, when it could rather be mounted on a trailer, and you just hook up the motor/generator trailer when you know you'll be going on a long trip. Also PHEV's may end up with engine problems due to the engines not being started often enough. Notice how Toyota avoided that by not letting you charge the Prius's batteries when you're at home? Oh well, at least it's better than a pure ICE vehicle.

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ian-page-36034

August 27, 2008

The battery life issue might be solved if one rented the battery rather than buying it. This ensures that the renting company will use smart batteries that manage their cycles for extended life, that batteries are completely reprocessed at end of life ( critical for lead for pollution , and for lithium since the will be a world shortage of the metal). It will also make technology transitions easier as rental agencies will want standard fixings, and focus on advanced batteries as a commercial unit rather than a component...so we should get ultra capacitor battery combos providing good peak discharge with long life.

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roger-bedell-63895

August 27, 2008

Batteries have come a long way in the last couple of years, and comparing the degradation of a gas/diesel engine to the degradation of a battery is almost never brought up when people are talking about electric vs ICE. They always moan about replacing the battery. I just went to Rome and looked at their battery buses (as part of my nanobus.org project), and they are seeing almost 7000 cycles on their batteries so far since 2005, cycles from about 85-35% of capacity. I think they are NiMh. 7000/365 is about 19 years of once daily charging.

I also like the generator-trailer idea! What would that look like? Sounds like a great business venture for somebody...

Or better yet, just keep your old Corolla for long trips, and use your EV for around town. (or could you trail the ev behind the corolla or vice versa?) Yeah, spending $35k for a Volt is a little daunting, and the complexity is a bit worrisome. A little chinese EV with say 7kwH of Li-ion batteries should be way less for around town, and my corolla was paid off long ago.

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david-davidson-44395

August 27, 2008

The warranty on the batteries in my Insight is 10 years. This vehicle is currently 8 years old and there have been zero (0) problems with the batteries, or any other part of the car. This is pretty good battery life.

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f-berry-47814

August 27, 2008

No problem,....this is how things will transpire by 2013.

1) We will all see the chevy PHEV and others from VW, Honda, Toyota and others in the next (5) years. The price range of the Volt will not ever come down below 30K, as this model is going to need to maintain it's huge margin for Chevy; Chevy is in trouble now (as is Ford).

2) The Japanese will build their Civic's and perhaps Accords in PHEV stile and take a "loss" in margin to keep themselves from loosing market share to our car companies; they look "long term" not short term. Our corporations leaders have (10) houses and get "golden parachutes" the Japanese and German counterparts may make a coupla hundred thousand and only for performance. This needs to fundamentally change.

3.) Their' cars will outperform our PHEV's and we will still not capture the "old glory" margin days with our PHEV's because the technology is too easy to mass produce, and the Jap. market is too fast and furious to fight or economically come out on top against.

So what do we do?

We can't buy any more foreign products: cars especially since they are a huge indicator of our economic stability. We must buy inferior American cars; even though we know we could do better.

Hey,...that's just the way it is. Who want's to compare or go up against the quality of a Honda Accord? GM, Ford, Chevy? No. No even at three times the cost. We all know it. Look what's being driven. "Think about what was being talked about at the dinner table last night regarding Honda and Toyota quality verses American cars".

Our first PHEV the Volt will start at 35-40K. The Jap. or German producers will compete with cars on parity with perfomance or better at $5-7,000 less.
They always have since the 70's and always will.

Watch,...then tell me I'm wrong. History has a way of repeating itself.

All the Best.

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chris-fraleigh-72758

August 27, 2008

This discussion warrants a rehash of the current Wired cover story regarding Shai Agassi's plan to use the cellphone model implemented within a leased-battery-for-electric-cars business model. It's Genius! Not only does he figure out how to utilize the intermittent nature of the solar/wind dominated renewable grid to his advantage, but he is creating the complete package to do so. (I want to work with this guy in a big way, what a visionary!)

It was mentioned before that batteries could be leased, that's Agassi's plan of how you travel long distance, just head into the local battery "self serve" and "fill-er up" with a new battery. This concept also helps to buffer the potential for renewable energy production in overnight periods when the grid is supporting less demand so that production is not wasted. Its a grid of battery capacity for off-peak renewable production. Wow, this guy has it all going on!

He also utilizes the Hilti tool concept. Give, or sell at low cost, the tool; in this case the car and hit the customer on the consumables. In the Hilti model its the bits and sawblades etc. Here its the batteries and the electrons.

Why hasn't GM really picked this up to run with??? They make all the parts within this concept, batteries, cars, generator equipment, and they have a really high powered sales engine to make it go. Plus, they have access to capital like no other multinational conglomerate or government on the globe. If they miss this one because they are so married to the ICE that they cannot find the electricity if they peed on the wire, than they deserve to go down.

So as mentioned before, when the oil barons are ushered out (whew!) we have a bright future ahead of ourselves. I look forward to a time when I will not be buying petrol fueled vehicles.

Go Agassi! Go Better Place! You are the Future! End of Rant.
By the way, Shai, I'm job hunting right now! Look me up :-)))

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brad-duncan-155702

August 27, 2008

Those are some promising comments about batteries, I've never seen any batteries that work that well for that long. Maybe I just don't know where to find the right technology. Perfect example: laptop manufacturers currently can't (or don't want to) make batteries that last that long?

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paul-johnson-34828

August 27, 2008

Step 1 - move from 100% gasoline to plug in hybrids where, as Dag pointed out, most will be done on the battery.

Step 2 - move coal generated electricity to RE generated electricity.

This is really simple, and achievable with only slight improvements on existing technologies.

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15 of 39

todd-cory-154245

August 27, 2008

Actually step one is conservation and waste reduction. Drive as little as possible and then cut that by 50%. Drive as small a vehicle as you can and then go yet smaller. Carpool with friends and neighbors. Become local in your own community rather than traveling great distances for goods and services. When possible walk or bicycle... after all that - then consider the various renewable applications for transportation... like

Step 1 - move from 100% gasoline to plug in hybrids where, as Dag pointed out, most will be done on the battery.

Step 2 - move coal generated electricity to RE generated electricity.

This is really simple, and achievable with only slight improvements on existing technologies.

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doggydogworld

August 27, 2008

Brad, they don't design cell phone batteries to last 10 years because the phone is obselete in two. Same dynamic with laptops. PHEV batteries use different chemistries and are designed to last the life of the car.

As for PHEV per mile costs, the author's analysis is deficient. Most Chevy Volt owners will rarely use gasoline. Daily commutes will be all electric at roughly $0.02/mile.

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brad-duncan-155702

August 27, 2008

Doggydogworld,
What are the different kinds of batteries for laptops, cell phones and cars?

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donn-dears-155746

August 27, 2008

I will post a video on you tube next month, highlighting the great promise of PHEV's.
Understanding energy issues is important, so people can go to Energy Clarity on you tube to see videos on oil and electricity, and on biofuels and on wind. (Energy Clarity on Wind will be posted next week.)
One thing is clear: PHEV's cannot reduce CO2 emissions by very much unless their batteries are charged using electricity generated by nuclear power. (See Carbon Folly at Amazon for calculations.) Wind lacks the scale to replace coal etc.
One other comment re PHEV's. It will take 50 years to replace enough cars to elimiante 80% of the gasoline used now.
Comment on Agassi: I suggested leasing in 1994. (See www.tsaugust.org.) Leasing requires deep pockets, which means that electric utilities in the U.S. are better positioned than Agassi's company for leasing batteries.
(Donn Dears is a retired GE Company senior executive, having extensive expereance with energy issues.)

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william-lynch-145705

August 27, 2008

8/27/08 Part 1

With regard to the appended web message, here are several considerations that everyone leaves out.

#1. It is assumed that all of that electricity from the wall goes directly to the battery. It does not. There are inefficiency losses. Let me be generous and say that the efficiency is 80%. The optimistic (remember, this is coming from marketing salesmen) "40 miles all electric range (AER) on about 10 kWh" becomes 40 miles on about 12.5 kWh from the wall. This is remarkable, by the way, because a gasoline-powered auto, at 20 mpg, consumes ~72 kWh for a 40 mile trip. OK, so let us use a lightweight (~2400 pounds) auto that gives 40 mpg; then the auto consumes ~36 kWh. (The gasoline energy cost would be 8.75 cents per mile.) I don't believe that same weight car with battery power will be any better than 20 kWh (and will probably be much closer to 25 kWh). Divide by 0.8 and we have 25 kWh of electricity from the wall. That's 150% higher than what the marketing agents suggest!

# 2. A primary parameter associated with transfer efficiency from the wall to the battery is the effective series resistance associated with the transformer, the voltage/current regulator, the wiring, AND the internal resistance of the battery nest of individual cells. I have not found one article by any marketing agent (or by a design engineer, who really should know) that gives this effective series resistance. This number is kept a secret, and this, probably, is because the result is embarrassing.

{Look for subsequent Parts}

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william-lynch-145705

August 27, 2008

8/27/08 Part 2

If the battery nest voltage is Eb and the charging current is I, and the net series resistance is R=R1+R2, where R1 is the internal resistance of the battery and R2 is the net effective external series resistance, then the charging voltage is Eg=Eb+I*R. The voltage at the battery terminals is Eb+I*R1=Eg-I*R2. It's not "healthy" for a battery cell to have a terminal voltage more than 5% larger than its Eb value (10% if you really want to push it). For example, if one is charging a 12V lead-acid battery, the measured voltage during charging should not be greater than ~12.6 V. The actual series resistance of such a battery is on the order of 0.05 Ohms, or about 0.08 Ohms per cell. (If such a battery were to draw a 10 Ampere load, its terminal voltage would drop to 11.5 Volts.) Please realize that each cell has a large area, and this large area promotes a lower value of resistance. The cell area for all of the new batteries for plug-in hybrid autos are much smaller.

0.25 Ohms is the maximum allowable series resistance for the small area cells in a battery nest that is meant to supply 20 KWh between recharges.

Why? When a battery is recharged, the time it takes to recharge is very important. 12 hours - overnight - is an outside limit. If the hybrid battery nest voltage was 72 Volts and the cells were arranged in n rows and n columns (with n approximately equal to 36), then the net resistance for the nest would be equal to the internal resistance of a single cell. A 12 hour charge of 20 kWh (assuming equal resistance losses within the battery and external to the battery) at 72 Volts requires a current of about 23 Amperes. If the internal series resistance is 0.25 Ohm, and if this is matched by an equal value for the external resistance losses, then Eg would equal 83.5 Volts. The overall transfer efficiency would be ~86.2%. This 14% loss is "I-squared R" resistive loss. 23*23*0.5*12/1000 = 3.17 KWh = 0.138*83.5*23*12/1000.

{See later Parts}

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william-lynch-145705

August 27, 2008

8/27/08 Part 3

#3. The "road tax" (federal + state) on gasoline is a tax that must still (eventually) be imposed whether the fuel is gasoline or electricity. The gasoline road tax comes to about 2.5 cents per mile of travel. The 8.75 cents per mile for the 40 mpg gasoline-fueled auto, however, has only 1.25 cents per mile for tax and 7.5 cents per mile for the gasoline. Of course, if all gasoline-fueled cars were operating at their capability of 40 mpg, then the road tax per gallon would have to be doubled. The cost per mile for fuel and tax would be 10 cents per mile.

The same tax must eventually be applied to the plug-in vehicle. If we believe the marketing agents, then only 0.25 kWh of battery power is required per mile. For a road tax of 2.5 cents per mile, a special road tax of about 10 cents per kWh would have to be added to the electric bill! The marketing agent's estimate of 3 cents per mile becomes 5.5 cents per kWh.

If the more likely value of 25 kWh per 40 miles, or 0.625 kWh per mile, is included in the electric bill, then the road tax component of the electric bill would have to be 4 cents per kWh. The marketing agent's estimate of 3 cents per kWh becomes 6.5 cents per kWh.

So, with road taxes fairly applied, the efficient gasoline-powered vehicle would have a cost of 10 cents per mile and the efficient plug-in vehicle would have a cost of 6.5 cents per mile.

{seeater Parts.}

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william-lynch-145705

August 27, 2008

8/27/08 Part 4

There is a Win for the hybrid, but there are also discouraging downsides. A range of greater than 40 miles will require proportionately larger values of charging current than 23 Amperes. Efficiencies of charging would also decrease; a doubling of range means a doubling of current and a quadrupling of resistive losses. The demands on reducing series resistance become crucial. The engineers know this, but the marketing agents do not comment on this. There is also a definite inconvenience to charging overnight every night. The very thought of having 20+ Amperes all night long in one's garage while one is sleeping is discomforting. The battery nests are very expensive since extensive engineering design consideration must be given for statistically weak cells acting to rob healthy cells. A 25 kWh battery has an energy storage that is 15-20 times that of a lead-acid battery and so its weight, as well as its cost, is also an issue.

The pollution reduction from the auto exhaust is not a Win, since that pollution is simply transferred back to the power station, which, itself, has only a 35% efficiency in converting fuel energy to home-delivered energy. The overall energy efficiency for the electric vehicle is worse than for an efficient gasoline-fueled auto. Then why are the costs lower for electrical power? The power companies are using coal and natural gas, rather than oil, and have long term contracts that have been providing them with significantly lower fuel costs (per Btu) than those for gasoline. Power company energy costs are now beginning to rise significantly. Even the rise in hybrid vehicles will raise electric power demands and require new factories, and will also raise the price for coal and gas because of their increased demand. These are painful tradeoffs. They introduce the concept of another painful tradeoff, the replacement of coal- and gas-fueled power plants with nuclear plants.

{See Subsequent Parts}

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william-lynch-145705

August 27, 2008

8/27/08 Part 5 (Final Part)

Much less money would be spent in supporting web-based arrangements for ride-sharing. Van-sharing for those commuting to work is particularly suitable. Arrangements are made on the web, and payments are also made from riders to drivers via web accounts. All of the techniques are presently well known. What is the holdup? It's difficult to say, but there are state bureaucracies personally interested in promoting much more expensive commuter rails, for which the only justification is that government subsidies (taxes on everyone across the country) can be found to pay for more than half of the costs. The auto manufacturers and the auto service industry - a huge percent of our economy - will be less than excited. Nevertheless, the van system is much less expensive for each commuter and has a much shorter end-to-end time for any commutes that are not "downtown" commutes. Consider this. If 54% of work commuters went to work in 10-passenger vans (with localized pick-up and deliveries), commuter traffic would be halved, and pollution would be halved. It takes only a few percent input overload above the maximum input for a safe high speed throughput to produce traffic slowdowns and stoppages. This happens twice every day in almost all suburbs. A commuter rail, by the way, is equivalent in throughput to less than one traffic lane of single passenger vehicles. Why? The trains must be minutes apart; autos are separated by a second or more.

William T. Lynch
bandglynch@earthlink.net

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frank-dimauro-48791

August 27, 2008

sun = electricity = power to drive us where we want to go ... in "91" I bought a 1975 Citi-Car for 3k as a sales tool to showcase a solar home ... it consist of a DC motor , 8 lead acid batterys, a resistance coil, battery charger and 3 micro switches ... it went 2 hours on a charge ... THAT WAS 33 YEARS AGO ... focus on simplicity, focus on shedding the yoke the spinners put on us, my point is " let's do it " the American way ... BUILD IT
... you don't have to be GM ; the market is there ... we need the jobs, the time with the kids and our pride back ... Am I naive ... I'm just sick of all the negative calcs while our way of life is going down the tubes ... the spinners are winning ... change that ... please

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william-hughes-66196

August 27, 2008

Hi Scott
Great article. I would like to pose a follow-up question. If the Chevy volta plug in hybrid replaced her motor with an equivalent weight of Lithium titanate batteries, what range would she have.

ps. Your point was very well taken that the way to go is to have renewable power, rather than coal power, charging our car batteries. However, that doesn't mean that we have to wait until we have more renewables in place to get into electric cars. Having the electrical cars in place means that we will be able to use the renewable power as it comes on line. Even more so, it means that we will be able to use highly discounted power when the wind is blowing full force, the sun is shining and the tides are running and the power companies don't know what to do with the excess generation.
http://mtkass.blogspot.com/2007/10/excess-energy-what-to-do.html

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edward-wilhelm-75955

August 27, 2008

The best thing to do is buy a kit to convert your current vehicle to all electric.
If we only charge our batteries at night with off peak power , its cheaper.
This should have been done long ago. Peace.

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bill-shanner-155800

August 27, 2008

What is the cost of ownership of the transportation device? If you accept the article and comments then people operating certain classes of commercial vehicles would have lower cost of business if they used these vehicles.

These commercial operators repeatedly believe that their cost are higher at the same service level. If they didn't they would buy or are they missing something?

These arguments are based on assumptions. I'd turn the assumptions into facts.

This has nothing to do with whether or not I support EV development. It is mostly to do with hope vs reality

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eric-jelinski-60373

August 27, 2008

We do not really need a long range battery for 80% of the population. The solution is to "live where you work and work where you live". The problem with this paradigm is that this undermines a lot of other social paradigms about community and city planning and real estate development and ultimately affects the political donations to members of the legislature by the lobbyists who build cheap expensive stick houses, and big box stores and donut shops on every corner and entice people into thinking that spending 2 to 4 hours a day commuting by car is supposed to be the "better way" and all part of progress. We, or at least I, do not need that. The EV with current battery limitatins would still be good enough for most people, and the rest can pay the high price of gas until they learn. Eric

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Reynier

August 28, 2008

Modern, even older (1990's) Diesel engines in mid to large size cars do run about 20 km/liter, which comes down high 40's/low 50's in miles per gallon, which is what is reached with a Prius as well. What is the real advantage of hybrids here?

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rob-earley-155839

August 28, 2008

Just imagine the surprise when Chinese battery company BYD ships it's first PHEV to the states...cheaper and better than Americans or Japanese can do it.

Check it out:
http://www.chinacartimes.com/2007/10/11/byd-to-mass-produce-electric-car/
http://www.treehugger.com/files/2008/04/byd-electric-car-e6-crossover-mpv.php

I'm not sure if BYD is a big name in North America or not, but it's not uncommon to see on the streets of Beijing.

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david-ellison-72134

August 28, 2008

I love all the numbers and feedback both in and about this post. I just have one question addressed in one of the comments by W. Lynch above. Given the high price of oil and gas these days, we seem overly concerned about the relative cost efficiency of electric vs. fuel-powered vehicles. But perhaps we should not forget where this all started... At one point we were concerned about the CO2 (and previously other pollutant) emissions resulting from the use of cars. So here is my question: what is the relative carbon efficiency of an electric vehicle compared to a gas powered vehicle in the US market (where presumably the Volt will first be introduced)? I realize of course that we are moving toward more and more renewable electricity production in the US. But the pace is still slow... far away from the 10 year timeframe for 100% renewable electricity production recently proposed by Al Gore... So given the current status quo in the US electricity market (with a very large share of coal-generated electricity), how do these 2 options (electric vs. gas-powered vehicles) stack up? What is the relative CO2 output per mile of the Volt compared to the average gas-powered vehicle in the US...? By how much can one actually reduce CO2 output per mile by moving to electric vehicles? Does anyone have these numbers?

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conrad-watson-151567

August 28, 2008

I average 55 in my personal Prius. My file delivery service employees average 48 three my business owns. The next generation battery will leave oil where it belongs: In the ground. Just installed a solar array on our office building. Bought a larger system than needed to run baseboard heat in the offices. There is nothing so comforting than to think of all the coal, oil or gas they are not using. Wouldn't take a very large system to charge all electric vehicle. We are now installing systems for our customers. The oil king is dead; long may he remain so!

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phil-manke-79191

August 28, 2008

Watson, save your PV for the car and heat your buildings with solar thermal. Efficiency is much higher. It does take a large system to charge an EV, and it happens during the sunny daytimes only.
I have a $2k Geo that gives over 45 mpg. Why couldn't the US industry do that good or better on gasoline alone. Having a plus 100hp hybrid is insane and a testament to the willful perversion of the driving public.
Plug-in EV's are a great move, and it looks like one must build your own to have one.
Good batteries are not $5K as earlier stated. More like $1500K. (Unless you "must" have an SUV.)

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carolyn-luce-54460

August 28, 2008

David Ellison's question got me calculating.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Motors_EV1
"75 to 150 miles (120 to 240 km) per charge with Gen 2 Ovonic nickel-metal hydride batteries... 77 Ah nickel-metal hydride batteries which held 95.1 MJ (26.4 kWh) of energy."

Assuming 26.4 kWh gives 75 miles, that's .352 kWh/mi

Life cycle greenhouse gas emissions from
http://www.world-nuclear.org/education/comparativeco2.html
multiplied with .352 kWh/mi gives the EV-1's GHG emissions per mile

815- 990 g/kWh -> 286-348 g/mi Coal
653-1170 g/kWh -> 230-412 g/mi Gas, thermal
356- 472 g/kWh -> 125-166 g/mi Gas, combined cycle
50 - 95 g/kWh -> 18- 33 g/mi Solar photovoltaic
5.5- 37 g/kWh -> 2 - 13 g/mi Wind
6 - 26 g/kWh -> 2 - 9 g/mi Nuclear
3 - 18 g/kWh -> 1 - 6 g/mi Hydro

Gasoline generates 8788 grams of CO2 emissions per gallon,
Diesel generates 11084 grams of CO2 per gallon, according to
http://www.epa.gov/oms/climate/420f05001.pdf

Dividing those by the 2008 EPA ratings of some cars gives their emissions/mi.
52 mpg -> 169 g/mile 2006 Honda Insight
46 mpg -> 191 g/mile 2008 Toyota Prius
36 mpg -> 244 g/mile 2008 Smart Fortwo
31 mpg -> 283 g/mile 2008 Toyota Corolla, Honda Fit
27.5mpg-> 320 g/mile 2008 CAFE standard for cars
34 mpg -> 326 g/mile 2009 VW Jetta Diesel

So the EV-1 generates less CO2 per mile than an ICE car when charged from combined cycle natural gas plants, or cleaner sources. If the EV-1 is charged from a coal or natural gas steam plant, then the emissions per mile are similar to those of non-hybrid ICE cars. Will the Volt do better?

For PG&E in California, coal provides only 4% of the electricity. Considering 76% of the electricity generated by natural gas plants in the US is from combined-cycle plants, I expect that if I charge a EV at night from PG&E, the electricity would likely come from a combined-cycle gas plant and thus be cleaner than driving even a Honda Insight.

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asogan-moodaly-82468

August 29, 2008

There is an EXCELLENT report on emissions of EV's compared to normal gasoline vehicles by the World Wildlife Fund. EV's are better due to the high efficiency transmission lines, transformers, battery packs and electric motors compared to ICE's which are hideously inefficient. This is even if the power is generated from a coal fired power station.

And more importantly, this transition allows a shift from liquid fuels (only alternative is biofuels really - H2 may happen eventually but I'm not holding my breath) to electron fuels (multiple clean sources of energy like solar, wind, hydro and nuclear if you want it).

My ex-employer SASOL (Coal to Liquids technology) gets a bit of a spanking too, again due to efficiencies.

www.panda.org.za/get_publication.php?ID=49&SectionID=1

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asogan-moodaly-82468

August 29, 2008

Oh and a study released by the environmental group National Resources Defense Council (NRDC) and the largely utility-funded Electric Power Research Institute shows that plug-ins, once they're on the market, will significantly cut greenhouse gases.

"The study shows that if plug-in hybrids are adopted widely in the United States, and if measures are taken to clean up power plants, by 2050, plug-in hybrids could reduce carbon-dioxide emissions by 612 million metric tons, or roughly 5 percent of the total U.S. emissions expected in that time frame, according to Marcus Sarofim, a researcher at MIT's Joint Program for the Science and Policy of Global Change. That's a significant amount, he says, considering that transportation accounts for only about a third of the total greenhouse-gas emissions.

But if plug-in hybrids account for only a small part of the total vehicle sales in 2050 (about 20 percent, compared with 80 percent in the first scenario), and if little is done to improve pollution from power plants, the vehicles will still reduce greenhouse emissions by about 163 metric tons, according to the study."

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doggydogworld

August 29, 2008

William Lynch - your calculations are way off. For one thing, PHEV packs are +/- 300V, not 72V, and internal resistances for advanced batteries are very low. AC Propulsion demonstrated 95% charging efficiency.

Cars need 65-70 kWh of gasoline to go 40 miles because today's typical gasoline engines are only 17% efficient over the drive cycle. Actual energy required to move a 4 door sedan (e.g. Prius, Volt, Malibu) is around 200 Wh/mile. With reasonbly efficient charging and battery chemistry (not NIMH)this translates to 250 Wh/mile at the wall plug. So 10 wall plug kWh for 40 miles is about right.

Brad - cell phones and laptops use lithium-cobalt-oxide (LiCoO2) which has high energy density but mediocre cycle life and shelf life. It can also be dangerous. Tesla is the only carmaker to choose LiCoO2. Toyota almost did for Prius III until wiser heads prevailed. Automakers today primarily use NIMH which is well proven to last the life of the car with proper control logic. Almost all EV and PHEV designs are based on advanced lithium chemstries, including LiMnO2, LiFePO4 and Li4Ti5O12.

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hljmesa

August 30, 2008

William Lynch,

Taxes on fuels. Hmmmmm.

I have another idea.

We tax tires. Yes, tires. They are actually what wears out the road.

And it would be the fairest of taxes. If you use the roads alot, you will replace your tires more often than someone who does not drive as much.

The tax would be paid at the time of tire purchase and submitted to the gov.

Your thoughts?

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fred-linn-151968

September 4, 2008

How are you all planning on getting everyone who drives a vehicle to run out and buy a new electric vehicle? From what I have seen they appear to be very expensive. How many electric vehicles per year do you think could be produced?

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Scott Sklar

About: Scott, founder and president of The Stella Group, Ltd., in Washington, DC, is the Chair of the Steering Committee of the Sustainable Energy Coalition and serves... more »