Ontarians Expect 50% Renewables by 2018

In 2006, Ontario's electrical energy used was 164 TWh. (Up 22% in 12 years). By 2025, the Ontario Power Authority expects an electrical energy use of 177 TWh, (up less than 8% in 18 years, a much reduced rate of increase). Even at that decreased growth, 50% of Ontario's electrical energy by 2018 would require 85 TWh from renewables. Hydraulic supplied 34 TWh in 2006, and planned projects increase this to 40 TWh – about the limit for hydraulic in Ontario. That leaves 45 TWh to come from other renewables. Biomass supplies less than 1 TWh. Solar and wind would have to supply the remaining 44 TWh. We can assume 40 TWh from wind.

This would require 15,000 MW of wind turbines (7500 x 2 MW) by 2018. The density of turbines in windy areas (along the great lakes), their impact on the local environment and citizens in those areas would be frightening. It would require a significant increase in transmission lines to get this energy to the load centres (more impact on the environment). It ignores the system stability limit of 5000 MW calculated for wind generation in Ontario.

40 TWh wind energy contribution assumes the turbines generating when the wind blows. During the windy nights of spring and fall the 15,000 MW of wind turbines would able to supply nearly all the Ontario overnight load. Unless energy storage banks are developed (unplanned), other generation would need to be shut down overnight. Ontario expects 14,000 MW of nuclear by 2018, itself nearly able to handle the nighttime load. If nuclear were shut down when the wind turbines load, when the wind falls in the morning while load increases, system load and generation would be imbalanced, as nuclear is not highly maneuverable. If the wind turbines are limited to supplying in the day time when the load increases, to achieve the annual wind contribution of 40 TWh an even greater wind turbine generation capacity than 15,000 MW would be needed.

I'm much more optimistic than Bill that this can work in an evolutionary and effective manner. First of all, however, I agree with Bill that 50% renewable by 2018 is very unrealistic, regardless of support. Heck, HDTVs came out in 1998 and our family will only buy our first one this fall - new technology and replacement of capital equipment takes time and the energy infrastructure is much much bigger and harder than replacing our TVs.

Every GW of renewable power installed is permanent infrastructure to generate power free of fuel costs and for very little maintenance costs for decades to come. Including the capital depreciation, wind is extremely competitive. Regarding storage, etc., remember that the next ten-fold increase in renewable generating capacity can simply add power straight to the grid without any storage or new load balancing technology whatsoever. Simply modulating existing peaker plants will work fine, just as we do today, every day. In the many years it takes to increase capacity ten-fold, technology for load balancing will improve dramatically.

Additionally, not all of Ontario's renewable power need be generated in Ontario; I expect the geothermal potential in Alberta is many terawatts. Maybe we need a mix of wind and geothermal. I think we should fully support developing this infrastructure.