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What About Investing in Solar PV Stocks?

Peter Lynch
December 03, 2007  |  11 Comments

Print

Why haven't there been many stories on what a great investment solar PV has been this year? For example, First Solar (FSLR), a maker of solar panels has gone up over 2000% so far this year. Other super investments are SunPower (SPWR) from California or future star Evergreen Solar (ESLR) just going profitable being a new start. They are all American based USA Solar Companies.--Jim Stack, Chandler, Arizona

Mr. Stack you are indeed correct that the common stock of these three companies would have been great investments. They have each had incredible year to date appreciation and as you can see below, they easily out performed the Dow Jones and NASDAQ averages. 

 

Symbol

Company Name

Stock Gain 1/1/07 thru 11/30/07

 

 

 

ESLR

Evergreen Solar, Inc.

70.9%

FSLR

First Solar, Inc.

623.5%

SPWR

Sunpower Corporation

225.8%

 

 

 

Indexes

 

 

 

 

 

DJIA

Dow Jones Average

6.6%

NASD

NASDAQ

10.3%

 

 

 

 

Since these stocks have each done so well I think it may be interesting to ask - what is there about these three stocks that may have made them do so much better than average?

I have followed all three of these stocks since their respective IPO's. I believe that they have done so well because each of these companies has a "differentiating factor" that sets it apart and as a result, they are viewed by Wall Street analysts and investors as being more attractive and consequently are given a higher multiple of earnings or potential.

What are these differentiating factors?

  • Potential Process Innovation - ESLR
  • Lowest Cost - FSLR
  • Highest Efficiency - SPWR

Evergreen Solar - ESLR has a unique technology for making photovoltaic material in the form of a ribbon, rather than an individual solar cell. It has the potential to produce a lower cost product and use significantly less silicon in the process.

First Solar - FSLR is the first "pure play" company** with a commercial product in the thin film area of Photovoltaics. It's product is the lowest cost on the market and has the potential to continue as the low-cost leader.

Sunpower Corporation - SPWR has the highest efficiency product on the market and is also a pure play company. This gives it a market niche in all areas where space is limited and a higher efficiency is needed.

If I am correct about these three stocks, this may be a useful guide to help evaluate other stocks and future IPO's to see if they to, have a differentiating factor that would set them apart and give them an advantage over their competition.

** Pure play company - is a term that indicates that the company has no other business, this is the only product area they are involved in.

J. Peter Lynch has worked, for 30 years as a Wall Street analyst, an independent equity analyst and private investor, and a merchant banker in small emerging technology companies. He has been actively involved in following developments in the renewable energy sector since 1977 and is regarded as an expert in this area. He is currently a financial and technology consultant to a number of companies. He can be reached via e-mail at Solarjpl@aol.com.

Related Links

  • First Solar, Inc.
  • Evergreen Solar
  • SunPower Corporation

11 Comments

Register To Comment
SlavoMila Zachova
SlavoMila Zachova
December 30, 2007
I'm living on an island in spain where there's a load of land hills and mountains available for anything other than building houses.
I'm looking for a green business idea and think this is a good one, to provide my people here with wind energy.
Where do I begin in doing this is my question.

Mila Zachova, Ibiza - Spain
JOHN LYNCH
JOHN LYNCH
December 9, 2007
Having been an executive after 20 years as an engineer in semiconductor materials and process development, i am thinking about a new career in solar panel manufacturing; marketing; consulting - anyone know a need I could fill? Manufacturing cost reduction, efficiency increase, packaging?

John L

Scottsdale AZ
john4az@cox.net
David Kozin
David Kozin
December 7, 2007
Ian,

Thanks so much for your insights! I've been invested in solar companies for almost a year but have zero hands on experience. Hearing about your experience fascinates me, seems like it'd be so cool to work with the panels themselves.
David Kozin
David Kozin
December 5, 2007
Another succesfull stock worth noting is Suntech Power (STP). They are a China-based company and claim to be the largest solar module manufacturer in the world. Their stock is up 139% YTD.

It'd be great to hear from people who have experience using/installing the products of any of the companies mentioned on this page.

-Dave
Douglas Dewitz
Douglas Dewitz
December 5, 2007
I would definitly like to see a greater analysis of the solar stock market in the newsletter. I recently invested a small amount in one of the listed companies and strongly feel that more investment will further the industry. Not being a financial person; any insights and buying and trading basics would be greatly appreciated. Can you elaborate on the NEX and some Wilderhill linked fund investments?
Ron Luikaart
Ron Luikaart
December 5, 2007
The largest module First Solar offers is 40 watts.

Sanyo 200 watt modules have a 16% PTC module efficiency.
SunPower 210 watt modules have a 14.8 PTC module efficiency.
Jim Stack
Jim Stack
December 5, 2007
Thanks for talking about this great investment in the environment and your net-worth. What a great way to invest in the future. I've done very well with this type of investment.

Note First solar makes bigger units. Up to 70 watts.
Model Numbers
FS-260
FS-262
FS-265
FS-267
FS-270
FS-272
Ron Luikaart
Ron Luikaart
December 5, 2007
This success is, to a significant extent, attributable to the unique physical properties of CdTe which make it ideal for converting solar energy into useful electricity.

Concerning First Solar modules: "unique physical properties of CdTe" being it's poisonous qualities?
Daniel Simon
Daniel Simon
December 5, 2007
Ron Luikaart,

As I understand it, First Solar has a fully insured (i.e. by a much larger 3rd party insurer) program to take back all CdTe panels at the end of their operating life. Presumably they will recycle the material into new panels at that time.

First Solar chose CdTe in spite of, not because of its poisonous qualities--in fact they did about a decade of research to find a less toxic material with similar "physical properties".
Ron Luikaart
Ron Luikaart
December 5, 2007
Daniel,

Improve Recycling Effectiveness and Economics Develop "dry" process for removing metal from modules for recycling
Develop more economical and cleaner process for extracting cadmium from metal waste
Develop economical process for purifying extracted cadmium to photovoltaic manufacturing standards for immediate re-use in module production

All in the "Develop" stage. Not there yet.
Ian Knox
Ian Knox
December 5, 2007
David,

I have experience installing both Evergreen and Sunpower modules. It is very clear who is the environmental winner of the two. Evergreen ships their modules without cardboard, paper, excess wrapping. They claim to have the smallest carbon footprint throughout their entire production process.

I've got to say that Sunpower's modues are smaller, lighter and a bit easier to install. They also have a sleek, black appearance, which I suppose can be a bonus.
At the end of the day both are good companies, and both have solid products.

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Peter Lynch

Peter Lynch

I have worked, for 33 years as an independent analyst and investor in small emerging technology companies. I have been actively involved in following developments in the renewable energy sector since 1977 and am regarded as an expert in...
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