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Wind Energy Demand Booming

Cost Dropping Below Conventional Sources Marks Key Milestone in U.S. Shift to Renewable Energy
by Lester R. Brown
Published: March 27, 2006

When Austin Energy, the publicly owned utility in Austin, Texas, launched its GreenChoice program in 2000, customers opting for green electricity paid a premium. During the fall of 2005, climbing natural gas prices pulled conventional electricity costs above those of wind-generated electricity, the source of most green power. This crossing of the cost lines in Austin and several other communities is a milestone in the U.S. shift to a renewable energy economy.

"A decade from now, there may be thousands of ranchers who will be earning more selling electricity than they do selling cattle."

- Lester R. Brown
Austin Energy buys wind-generated electricity under 10-year, fixed-price contracts and passes this stable price on to its GreenChoice subscribers. This fixed-price energy product is quite attractive to Austin's 388 corporate GreenChoice customers, including Advanced Micro Devices, Dell, IBM, Samsung, and 3M. Advanced Micro Devices expects to save $4 million over the next decade through this arrangement. School districts are also signing up. Round Rock School District, for example, projects 10-year savings to local taxpayers at $2 million.

Facing a Texas-style stampede of consumers wanting to sign up for the current remaining supply of green electricity, Austin Energy has resorted to a GreenChoice raffle that will be held on March 23. All its customers-both residential and business-were invited to participate in the drawing.

A similar situation has unfolded in Colorado with Xcel Energy, which is the state's largest electricity supplier. Xcel's 33,000 Windsource customers, who until late 2005 were paying $6 more each month for their electricity, are now paying slightly less than those using conventional electricity, which comes mostly from natural gas and coal. To meet fast-growing demand, Xcel is currently soliciting proposals from wind developers for up to 775 megawatts of new wind power generation, enough to supply 232,000 Colorado homes with electricity.

Austin Energy and Xcel Energy are among the first utilities to pass on the falling cost of wind energy to their customers. In the short run, the price advantage of wind over conventional electricity may disappear as the surging demand for wind electricity from climate-conscious customers outruns the supply, driving up the price, and as natural gas prices fall from their late 2005 highs. Over the longer term, however, as reserves of natural gas are depleted, its price is projected to rise, giving a strong advantage to wind.

Interest in wind energy is rising as production costs fall. Although media attention focuses on communities with a not-in-my-backyard (NIMBY) response to wind turbines, such as the large, off-shore wind farm planned off Cape Cod, in most of the country wind farms are enthusiastically welcomed. Here, it's the PIIMBY syndrome-put-it-in-my-backyard.

When Xcel announced it would develop several hundred megawatts of additional wind-generating capacity, it got the attention of ranching communities throughout wind-rich eastern Colorado. In tiny ranch-country towns like Grover, near the Wyoming border, ranchers welcomed a proposed 300-megawatt wind farm that would span some 30 ranches.

With a large, advanced-design wind turbine generating easily $100,000 worth of electricity per year, even a 3-percent royalty would earn ranchers $3,000 a year from leasing a quarter-acre of ranchland. And they can still run cattle on the land. If the proposed project is approved as expected, these 30 or so ranchers will have an average of seven turbines each, yielding roughly $21,000 a year in additional income. A decade from now, there may be thousands of ranchers who will be earning more selling electricity than they do selling cattle.

In upstate New York, dairy farmers in Lewis County near Lake Ontario warmly embraced the 195-turbine Maple Ridge Wind Farm, and the $5,000 to $10,000-annual royalty offered for each of the turbines on their land. Rural communities welcome wind farms because they provide income to farmers and ranchers, skilled jobs, cheap electricity, and additional tax revenue to upgrade schools and maintain roads.

The growing profitability of wind energy is attracting big-time players. Four years ago, General Electric purchased Enron Wind, one of Enron's few profitable segments, parlaying its advanced wind turbine design into a leading position in the world wind turbine market.

In mid-2005, Goldman Sachs purchased Zilkha Renewable Energy, a small wind farm development company. Now called Horizon Wind Energy, this wholly-owned subsidiary of Goldman Sachs has under construction or in the planning stages 4,000 megawatts of wind-generated electricity, enough to supply electricity to 1.2 million homes.

AES, a leading international player in electricity generation, has used its purchase of SeaWest, another wind developer, to establish a strong position in the U.S. wind sector. It now has under development 1,800 megawatts of wind-generating capacity. Shell, one of the leading bidders for offshore wind rights in the United Kingdom, owns 315 megawatts of wind-generating capacity in the United States and is planning more. And BP is mapping out areas in the United States where it could build some 2,000 megawatts of wind-generating capacity.

Overall, U.S. wind-generating capacity expanded by 36 percent in 2005, reaching 9,149 megawatts. This year it could expand by 50 percent. At the end of 2005, there were commercial wind farms in 30 states.

Wind power generation would grow even faster if it were not constrained by the availability of turbines. General Electric, now supplying 60 percent of the U.S. wind turbine market, is sold out through 2007. Clipper Windpower, a startup turbine manufacturer, is planning to produce 20 of its 2.5-megawatt Liberty turbines per month by mid 2006 and a total of 250 turbines in 2007. Its production is also committed well into the future.

After years of industry uncertainty, when Congress allowed the wind production tax credit (PTC) to lapse several times, the 2005 PTC extension through 2007 has given investors renewed confidence in the future of wind power. The extension of the PTC, which is designed to offset subsidies to fossil fuels and nuclear power, is leading to record growth in the number of new wind farms planned.

Wind energy is emerging as a centerpiece of the new energy economy, because it is abundant, inexpensive, inexhaustible, widely distributed, clean, and climate-benign. Three of the 50 states-North Dakota, Kansas, and Texas-have enough harnessable wind energy to satisfy national electricity needs. The cost of wind-generated electricity has fallen from 38? per kilowatt-hour in the early 1980s to 4? to 6? today, offering an almost endless supply of cheap energy.

Beyond that, these wells will never go dry. No one can cut off the supply or raise the fuel cost. And wind can supply our energy needs without disrupting the earth's climate.

About the author...

Lester R. Brown, founder and President of Earth Policy Institute, has been described by the Washington Post as "one of the world's most influential thinkers" and as "the guru of the global environmental movement" by The Telegraph of Calcutta. The author of numerous books, including Plan B 2.0: Rescuing a Planet Under Stress and a Civilization in Trouble where he develops a vision for an environmentally sustainable economy, chapters, articles, etc., he helped pioneer the concept of environmentally sustainable development. His principal research areas include food, population, water, climate change, and renewable energy. The recipient of scores of awards and honorary degrees, he is widely sought as a speaker. In 1974, he founded Worldwatch Institute, of which he was President for its first 26 years. As President, he launched the World Watch Papers, the Worldwatch/Norton books, the annual State of the World report, the bimonthly magazine World Watch, the annual Vital Signs, and the Institute's News Briefs.

Additional Information

The information and views expressed in this article are those of the author and not necessarily those of RenewableEnergyWorld.com or the companies that advertise on its Web site and other publications.

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Add Your Comment 13 Reader Comments
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Comment
1 of 13
March 27, 2006
What statewide initiatives have been broached to ensure the continued livelihood of another natural commodity, bats? Because turbines in certain studies supported by the Bats and Wind Cooperative have proven deadly to thousands of area bats. These same bats are critical to organic practices so important in green living nationwide. Central Texans alone enjoy the Bracken bats which have been estimated to devour 200 tons of crop pests a night during bat season. Are we taking appropriate measures to ensure the balance in nature is being maintained before we simply add more and more turbines?
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Comment
2 of 13
March 27, 2006
Great article Mr. Brown. Just as the "mainframe" computers were displaced by distributed computation (the PC), would love to hear your thoughts on Distributed Generation (DG) using small wind turbines. "Wind Farms" are usually remote centralized facilities. Using the DG model will there be an emerging "Wind Forest" of many distributed generators?
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3 of 13
March 27, 2006
Thank God for Lester L. Brown and the critical insight and analysis he and those working with him have provided to such a wide audience for so many years.
Once again as in so many other areas his insight has been instrumental in guiding us forward toward a world where PHEVs,large and smaller
scale wind generated electricity, and solar technologies can begin to lift us out of our fossil fuel stupor.l
For me, living in north Texas, changing over to wind generated electricity was as simple as changing energy providers. Yes, it's costing me one and a half cent more per kilowatt hour. And yes, I have become more decerning in my energy usage. High efficiency lighting and appliances plus insulation, shading, ventilation, and energy waste all factor into my thinking a little more now. And yes I will add photovoltaic panels in the next few years to help in recharging the PHEV I plan to buy as soon as the car manufacturers figure it out and start rolling them off the assembly lines.
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4 of 13
March 28, 2006
Many thanks to Lester Brown for his alerting us to the crossing of the cost lines. As I have written in the past, once the sweet smell of profit becomes evident and risk factors have declined, it is only a matter of time before savy businessmen, some of whom are farmers, rise to the occasion. I believe we are presently witnessing the entry of wind generated power into the mainstream of commerce here in the US.

adrianakau@aol.com
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5 of 13
March 29, 2006
I do find it ironic, that what we jump on Exxon for doing, price jumping during 'limited supply' we're okay with, if its wind? I don't think so. We paid a premium for wind, because it's 'green' fine. Why punish us when it's more mainstream? I don't see any plans to 'rebate' that previous support, once prices fall, and that's fine, but blaming supply for wind price gouging? c'mon... Apparently, we have an OPEC for wind. We won't produce enough turbines, so, there's a demand, so we can charge what we want. I'd laugh my ass off, if we nationalized it, and tossed a few thousand mills on BLM land, where the deer and the antelope all play :P Yes, I understand the business credo here. But greed doesn't impress me.
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6 of 13
March 29, 2006
The problem I have with wind turbines is that they kill bats and birds. Wind energy might be climate friendly but it's not kind to our flying friends. We don't need this at a time when biodiversity is being destroyed. There have been extensive studies; turbines have had a devastating effect on seabirds, in particular.

Sorry for the brief rant. Solar power has no moving parts and therein lies in beauty.
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7 of 13
March 29, 2006
I would be interested to know what Mr. Brown is quotingwhen he says the cost of generating wind electricity has fallen from 38? to 4? to 6? means I would assume cents per kilowatt hour? and If so where can I get some more information on the specific components of these costs?
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8 of 13
March 29, 2006
This is certainly encouraging and I'm pleased to see the progress. I still have concerns with the "unpredictablility" of wind, especilly during the periods of low output and high demand, particularily in the hot summer months.

As far as the bats are concerned, I might speculate that the demise of bats that can't evade a 16rpm turbine may only improve the gene pool?
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9 of 13
March 29, 2006
I believe we are presently withnessing the boom of solar PV power plants in Texas.
This year the global solar power market is estimated to be worth between 9 billion and 12 billion U.S. dollars a year.
Giulio Negrini
www.gnpimb.com
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10 of 13
March 30, 2006
There's a lot of mis-information on costs here. Here are some facts, based on actual contracts filed in utility cases in my state:

Purchase power agreements (PPAs) for wind energy from large wind farms (50 MW +): 2.5 to 3.0 cents a kwh, with the producer keeping the PTC. Contracts that start at the low end often include annual inflators of 3%-5%.The PTC is worth 1.8 cents/kwh, levellized, so the unsubsized cost of large scale wind right now is around 4.5 cents/kwh.

Smaller scale wind projects (less than 1 MW) cost about twice this.
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11 of 13
March 30, 2006
Wind energy prices have not crossed below coal/natural gas electricity. Wind costs about 15 - 20 cents per kwh to produce. The wind companies get about 1/2 of that from the price they charge for the electricity, the other half coming from tax breaks on their profits. Wind energy, being intermittent and unpredictable, would, on a real open market, have a price well BELOW baseline power. Baseline power is usually about 5 cents or less. So wind is worth about 3 cents. Austin Energy found that over the past few years, that the price for peak demand natural gas electricity was above wind. They are comparing two different types of electricity production. I think wind can work. Just get the government out of it.
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12 of 13
March 30, 2006
By the way, non-moving structures such as buildings and solar panels are much more dangerous to birds. The huge reduction of acid rain and mercury pollution resulting from wind electricity save birds from regional extinctions. Small fast turning wind turbines killed a few birds - but modern huge and slow turning turbines are safe for birds. Sorry for destroying one of the absurd antiwind myths.
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13 of 13
March 30, 2006
Some people seem to long for small windmills, which now are as expensive as solar, or 1000% more expensive than big windmills. The reason wind turbines are a real threat to coal and nuclear, is their low cost resulting from their big scale.

Wind electricity is proportional to the square of blade diameter. 80% of power comes from the 15% tip of the blade (due to lever effect). Taller towers capture faster winds. The difference between 165' and 230' can be 20% faster wind. Wind electricity is proportional to the cube of the wind speed. At 65 extra feet, the same turbine will produce 80% more electricity, money, and health savings.

I am impressed with the fact that today the only way to shut down coal and nuclear plants, is with large windmills. We need to increase funds for solar research.
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