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May 2, 2005

Will the Cost of Silicon Keep PV Prices High?

I was wondering about the high cost of silicon and whether that will prevent the price drop in Solar residential systems that everyone is counting on. Given the high demand any significant price drop appears unlikely. Do you know of any research on material other than silicon that is promising? Jerry H South Carolina

Jerry, Today's photovoltaics are made primarily from silicon, which in the 1990's was derived only from the silicon waste that came from the silicon chip industry. In April, media reports surfaced from the biggest PV companies that solar-grade silicon leapt from $9 per kilo in 2000 to $25 last year, and $60 in 2005. These higher prices are a result of the fast growth rate of the global photovoltaics industry, which produced more than 1.2 Gigawatts in 2004, and the efficiencies in the traditional silicon chip industry, which leave less wastes from their process for solar-grade silicon.

With the announcement of the Solar Energy Industry Association's (SEIA) American Solar Power Industry Research and Investment in Technology collaborative the photovoltaics industry is working to build upon its earlier efforts for fair access to silicon. The industry-led collaborative is designed to reduce the cost, increase the efficiency, and improve the manufacturing of solar PV through novel breakthrough designs and processes, which should lead to low-cost manufacturing and new silicon production processes, among other goals. While there are some promising newer PV materials in the marketplace, such as thin films with Indium, Selenium and Gallium, and Cadmium Telluride, another emerging play will be through non-silicon nanotechnology, which uses light sensitive dyes.

Konarka Technologies, a manufacturer of non-silicon nanotechnology, is setting up its pilot plant this year.

With smart tactics for using traditional silicon efficiently, non-silicon materials already in the marketplace and soon-to-be others via nanotechnology, and other approaches - the silicon shortage issue should just be seen as growing pains in a fast-paced industry during its early adolescence.

Scott
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Reader Comments (2)
 
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Anonymous
May 3, 2005
The bulk of silicon used for PV cells remains scrap from electronics grade (EG) silicon. It is sold to PV manufacturers at a much lower price than EG silicon, but being scrap, its supply is limited. Competition for that supply reduces the price spread between EG and PV grade silicon, and is encouraging a few producers to make PV grade silicon directly. But so far, AFAIK, the cost of directly manufactured PV silicon isn't much less than that of EG silicon. Maybe that will change, but meanwhile the most promising way to reduce the silicon cost in PV modules is to reduce the silicon content through use of either thin cells or solar concentrators.
Comment 1 of 2
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Anonymous
May 4, 2005
In 1998, the polysilicon suppliers warned of a shortage of PV material by 2002 due to rapid growth in the PV industry, continued growth in the semiconductor industry, reduced volume of scrap material available, and the reluctance of suppliers to invest in new facilities due to low prices. There simply was not enough (if any) profit to justify capacity expansion, particularly for the prices that the Solar Industry was willing to pay. At present, the demand for solar grade silicon feedstock is about 9000 metric tons. Since the industry produces only 3000 metric tons of scrap, the shortfall has to be covered by polysilicon produced for the PV industry or the industry has to bid against the semiconductor industry for electronic grade poly. The only answer for the next ten years' demand is to increase existing capacity of the polysilicon supply.
Comment 2 of 2
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