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Germany's Grid and the Market: 100 Percent Renewable by 2050?

Paul Hockenos
November 21, 2012  |  15 Comments

Most of Germany’s pro-Energiewende voices think that Germany will far exceed its 2020 target of 35% clean energy. The Heinrich Böll Foundation, a Green think tank, is definitely among them. It argues that Germany could — with the right policies — go 100% renewable by 2050.

But for Germany to do it, argues the report "A European Union for Renewable Energy," there has to be greatly improved cooperation. The EU targets, road maps, and action plans are steps in the right direction, but they fall far short of a comprehensive EU common energy policy.

The report, commissioned by the Heinrich Böll Foundation European Union and prepared by independent experts, argues that most European countries' current energy grids are antiquated, nationally organized, and designed for fossil fuel and nuclear energy sources. The grids are composed mostly of one-way transmission cables connecting large production facilities, like coal-firing plants and nuclear reactors, to residential and commercial hubs.

Since the requisite storage technology is still largely undeveloped, what is needed are "smart," flexible, decentralized grids that crisscross the continent and beyond. In contrast to the "dumb" decentralized networks of the fossil-fuel age, a smart grid is a digital network that links customers with dispersed suppliers, like those operating wind parks and solar installations, through the Internet. The wider-reaching and "smarter" this network is, the better its ability to match weather-dependent supply surpluses and demand needs, both regionally and across borders.

Since grid construction needs as long as ten years to be realized, potential grid investors would need an unshakable commitment to renewable energies to invest in such a costly project. The report underscores a number of measures to get the ball on an all-European system rolling, including a "review" of the EU treaty that stipulates that the national states have full authority to determine their own energy supplies as they wish. Ultimately there must be a guarantee that nationally minded states don't obstruct plans for an European grid system.

As for Europe's current energy markets, they too tend to reflect national priorities and a fossil fuel-dominated system that the EU is supposedly committed to phasing out. The report argues that "open and hidden" subsidies for fossil fuels and nuclear must be abolished in order to even the playing field between renewable and conventional energies.

Moreover, Europe is a patchwork of diverse incentives, subsidies, and related taxes. About two-thirds of EU countries have a feed-in tariff along the lines of Germany's successful model. Its essence is that utilities are required to buy renewable energy from private producers at a higher-than-market price in order to cover the producer's investment in solar modules, wind turbines, biogas plants, or other production installations.

A key recommendation is the gradual harmonization of incentive and subsidy programs based on best practice models, including but not limited to the feed-in tariff. "To make prices within the internal energy market more transparent and attract cross-border investment," says Sascha Müller-Kraenner, the report's chief organizer, "today's systems have to be better connected, based on feed-in tariffs. Remuneration systems like tenders and auctions for big producers such as offshore wind farms can help make today's system even more competitive, but this doesn't mean replacing the most successful elements of the feed-in tariffs."

Lead image: German traditional windmill via Shutterstock

The information and views expressed in this blog post are solely those of the author and not necessarily those of RenewableEnergyWorld.com or the companies that advertise on this Web site and other publications. This blog was posted directly by the author and was not reviewed for accuracy, spelling or grammar.

15 Comments

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Ryan Salisbury
Ryan Salisbury
January 4, 2013
Why is the solar home energy said to be environment-friendly? What are its general benefits? Practically speaking, when solar home energy is used, the electrical bills tremendously go down as compared to the other type of home energy available for all people. Why would you pay for such expensive bills when all you need to do is to employ solar home energy?
What is Solar Energy? Learn more by visiting http://thenewsolarenergy.com/solar-home-energy-what-is-it-for/
Bob Wallace
Bob Wallace
December 7, 2012
Tootle-de-too Terry.

Use the time you'll save and try to find some data to back up your claims.

Most of us know that you can make fuel from "stuff". The issue is how much "stuff" we have, how far it might go in doing the job at hand.

I remember when I first read about using old cooking oil for biodiesel. Even before I got to the end of the sentence it was obvious that a few gallons per day from every deep-fat cooker in town wasn't going to power many rides. No way were 200 million cars going to give the essence of eau de french fry.

Our big energy sources are wind, solar, and perhaps wave - if we can develop the technology. Bio-stuff, tidal, wet rock geothermal and hydro just aren't available in large enough numbers to be more than niche players. Important, yes, but small double digit at best.
terry hallinan
terry hallinan
December 7, 2012
Goodbye, Bob.

Spewing insults and denying the facts is not conducive to reasoned argument.

Waste to gas is far from the highest and best use of biomass but it is all that your restricted reading allows. Even the dubious internal combustion engine's use of powdered biomass has gone through proof of concept experimentation at Syracuse University but external combustion engines utilizing the now venerable Organic rankine cycle are nearing production. Some eye candy proof is here:

http://www.racecar-engineering.com/news/us-team-eyes-land-speed-steam-record/

If you won't read, at least maybe you will look.

Whatever.

Best, Terry
Bob Wallace
Bob Wallace
December 7, 2012
Terry, your remark about Archer and Jacobson is contemptible. You have lost credibility.

If you want people to believe that we have geothermal resources capable of providing more than a small percent of the Earth's energy demands you will need to show some proof.

The same goes for waste -> gas.

Data, Terry, not insults.
terry hallinan
terry hallinan
December 7, 2012
Hi Bob,

Maybe the nerds at Stanford took too many blows to the head playing football. They have done the latter superbly lately but renewable energy - not so hot.

I absolutely do not mean the will o' the wisp hot dry rock [HDR] geothermal power pumped by MIT. Maybe someday, like Japan's dreams of solar satellites zapping electricity down to earthlings like Scotty transporting the Enterprise crew while nuclear was fixing to do some real hurt. But HDR has been just around the corner longer nuclear fusion power.

Alaska, with the grandest geothermal resources of any state, and Iceland, the valhalla of geothermal power, have pioneered low temperature geothermal power. Even Australia was there in the 1920's. And Alaska's only geothermal power production was at Chena Hot Springs Spa, where water temperatures with about the heat of a cup of tea have been used ironically to keep an ice museum from melting, among other things.

You are fooling yourself if you think waste is not quite plentiful as indicated. You don't need to grow dumps or weeds. They volunteer. At Pig City on the Jutland Peninsula in Denmark, even the stench of pig farming [ammonia] has been used to grow tomatoes after it was collected in air filters.

"we'll probably end up using that bio-methane for cooking rather than electricity."

Oh really. My former Indian doctor told me the village in India where he grew up got all its electricity from anaerobic digesters.

BTW take it from an old riverboat deckhand, water is a lot thicker than air. :-)

Good talking to you, Bob. Wind and sun can drive men mad but I am sure you are quite intelligent when not being conned by landlubbers. :-)

Best, Terry
Bob Wallace
Bob Wallace
December 7, 2012
I suppose we all get to have our personal definition of "extremely", Terry. Yours and mine seem to differ.

Here's where I get my data -

http://www.stanford.edu/group/efmh/winds/aj07_jamc.pdf

Geothermal, if we can figure out the engineering problems associated with enhanced geothermal, does have wide application. If we get stuck with nothing but "wet rock" geothermal, it won't do a large percentage of the job. Except in Iceland and along the Ring of Fire.

Biomass. I believe you would have a hard time producing 36% of our electricity with biomass. (That's what we got from coal during the first half of 2012.) There are a number of problems with extensive biomass, including available land, irrigation and transportation costs.

Biogas can also be part of the solution. Landfill, urban sewage, and cattle lot gas can help. And it can be part of the dispatchable fill-in for wind and solar. But it's unlikely to be even 10% of our total supply. And, actually, we'll probably end up using that bio-methane for cooking rather than electricity.

BTW, take it from a blue water sailor. Don't try sailing through the horse latitudes unless you've got a lot of time to spare....
terry hallinan
terry hallinan
December 6, 2012
I have no idea how to "unreport" spam.

Obviously Bob Wallace is no spammer even though he is flat wrong.

"Wind is variable. It is not extremely variable...All generation is variable. Coal plants operate about 85% of the time."

But this is nonsensical, Bob. Obviously wind varies from hurricane-force winds to movement so slight crews on clipper ships sometimes died of thirst in the middle of a huge ocean. A local wind farm got a poison pen letter from the utility buying their output notifying them they would rapidly shut down transmission when ordered or pay a very heavy penalty for damaging the lines. A smart grid and DC can help with problems but cannot eliminate the problems of intermittent sources of energy.

Geothermal, not coal, has the greatest availability and is vastly more abundant than all other sources combined.

Biomass can easily replace coal or other fossil fuels and is as close as the weeds in your garden or the trash in your dump or even the effusions in your toilet. See a wonderful use of biomass to save forests here:

http://news.mongabay.com/bioenergy/2006/10/small-is-bountiful-in-nepals-energy.html

In my Northeast U.S. the Sierra Club has fought biomass tooth and nail, even claiming it is worse than coal. Mindless rot that is a match for the worst from Exxon or the Koch brothers.

Best, Terry
Bob Wallace
Bob Wallace
December 6, 2012
Wind is variable. It is not extremely variable. Connected wind farms spread over as little as a couple hundred miles are very much less variable than a single turbine.

All generation is variable. Coal plants operate about 85% of the time, nuclear about 90%. Sometimes nuclear plants go down abruptly and don't come back up for years (or never). That sort of variability can sting. We have to have redundant generation to deal with that.

The future grid will likely be more chaotic and the present, which isn't exactly a steady state operation. In the short term much of the variability will be leveled out with quick response gas turbines and they will likely be replaced with storage.
terry hallinan
terry hallinan
December 6, 2012
"Wind is the lowest of all new generation sources in the US."

Sorry, Bob. Wind is not only intermittent, it is extremely variable.

If you only want power when the wind is blowing and not too hard, then and only then is it cheap. The wind turbine repair man is not remotely as lonely as the Maytag repair man BTW.

Wind, like solar, has superb niches but is no answer whatever to eliminating use of fossil fuels. Baseload renewable energy is.

Best, Terry
Bob Wallace
Bob Wallace
December 5, 2012
"The ultra-expensive, weak sisters of solar and wind"

Huh? Wind is the lowest of all new generation sources in the US. A LCOE 5 cents per kWh, a penny less than natural gas.

Germany is installing solar at $2/watt. Once we bring that price to the US it means 8 cent power during the time of day when demand, and wholesale prices, are highest.

Natural gas is expected to increase in price. There are no other generation technologies that are as inexpensive as the "weak sisters".
terry hallinan
terry hallinan
November 29, 2012
Dear Anonymous,

Thank you for the lead and comments. From the link:

"Wind turbines and solar modules help generate electricity in accordance with how much wind and sun is available. Biogas and hydropower are used to make up the difference: they are converted into electricity as needed in order to balance out short-term fluctuations, or are temporarily stored. Technically, there is nothing preventing us from 100 per cent provision with renewables."

The ultra-expensive, weak sisters of solar and wind combined with baseload renewables and theoretical mass storage may become a reality but it is far too impractical, wasteful and dreamy for my tastes. Germany itself is a leader in developing the best of all the renewables beginning with geothermal and that is where the future lies IMHO.
Anatoly Arov
Anatoly Arov
November 28, 2012
I salut Germany 2050 goal and hope that reaching it does not bring them to current Greek situation. Principally new innovations in Alternative energy is a key in reaching economically such goals and are currently suppressed by technology readiness standards, and by neglecting new solutions comming outside Industry.
I sent to many of them invitation for participation in my development for principally new source of energy - by utilization of deep water pressure with using my device that converts pressure into shaft rotary motion coupled with generator. For example, delivers 10MW @ 50m depth for every cubic m of device size (amount of power is linear to depth and cubic to device size). Myself I do not have resources to do this alone and local Government does not provide needed support.
ANONYMOUS
November 25, 2012
Terry

Please have a look at the Project "The Combined Power Plant"
Link http://www.kombikraftwerk.de/index.php?id=27

This is a very nice project, showing that renewables can meet 100% of the base- and peak demand. Biomass and dams are also part of the simulation.

Diego
terry hallinan
terry hallinan
November 23, 2012
No matter how hard humans wish, they cannot make the sun stop going down at night nor the wind stop blowing when the weather is at its coldest.

Fortunately baseload renewable power sources (e.g., geothermal, biomass, tidal power, waste heat) are vastly more abundant and cheaper and cleaner than sometime renewable power. Humans need only concentrate their thinking and spending rather than chasing moonbeams. The very survival of life on the planet may depend on whether we demonstrate that we are truly intelligent life forms.

For certain solar and wind and other intermittent power have splendid niches but will never do it all without a vast leap in development of cheap, reliable mass storage of energy.

Best, Terry
Anumakonda Jagadeesh
Anumakonda Jagadeesh
November 22, 2012
Renewables are marching in leaps and bounds in Germany. If Renewables progress keeps up this pace,it may be no wonder by 2050 Germany will be 100% Renewable in Power.
Dr.A.Jagadeesh Nellore(AP),India
e-mail: anumakonda.jagadeesh@gmail.com

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Paul Hockenos

Paul Hockenos

Paul Hockenos is a Berlin-based author who has written about Europe since 1989. Paul is the author of three major books on European politics: Free to Hate: The Rise of the Right in Post-Communist Eastern Europe, Homeland Calling: Exile...
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