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Don't Miss The Great Solar Debate: Where Does the Global Solar Industry Stand? Click Here to Register! ×

Clearing Up the Facts About Solar In Germany

Renewables 100 Policy Institute
February 16, 2012  |  24 Comments

On January 18, 2012, the German magazine Der Spiegel published an article titled “The Solar Subsidy Sinkhole,” which paints a distorted picture of the German solar story. The following summarizes the misleading statements made - and facts to correct them.

SPIEGEL:   “As is so often the case in winter, all solar panels more or less stopped generating electricity at the same time. To avert power shortages, Germany currently has to import large amounts of electricity generated at nuclear power plants in France and the Czech Republic.”

FACT: During Europe’s extreme cold weather in February 2012, German news reported that Germany actually increased its electricity exports, thanks in part to photovoltaics helping to strengthen grid stability at peak hours. France, in turn, relying on nuclear powered heating, had to import electricity from Germany.

FACT: Germany has been a longtime net electricity exporter. In Summer 2011, the country did need to intermittently import electricity from neighboring countries; however, the cause was not attributed to photovoltaics, but to the nation’s ambitious shutdown of 8 nuclear power plants following the Fukushima disaster. Despite this bold move, Germany again became a net exporter of electricity in October 2011, according to the International Energy Agency’s most recent statistics. 

SPIEGEL: “German consumers already complain about having to pay the second-highest electricity prices in Europe.”

FACT: According to a recent poll reported by Focus magazine, 61% of Germans do not mind paying more for electricity, as long as it comes from renewable sources.  The magazine also reported that 71% would pay far more than they already are paying for clean, non-nuclear power. 

FACT: That said, renewable energy surcharges only account for a modest percentage of the German ratepayer electricity bill.

FACT: Also, because the German feed-in tariff law has catalyzed wide adoption of localized renewable electricity (consider that 60% of renewable power in Germany – and 79% of solar power - is owned by private citizens, businesses, and farmers), many German residents now create their own clean energy and thus pay far less or nothing in net costs for their electricity.

FACT: Those that opt to put solar on their rooftops in Germany pay on average only 60% of what it would cost them in the US. This is because such a robust PV industry has blossomed in Germany as a result of the strong, economically supportive legal framework.

SPIEGEL: “According to the RWI, the solar energy systems connected to the grid in 2011 alone will cost electricity customers about €18 billion in subsidy costs over the next 20 years. "The demand for subsidies is growing and growing," says RWI expert Manuel Frondel. If all commitments to pay subsidies so far are added together, Frondel adds, "we have already exceeded the €100 billion level."

FACT: Although the renewable energy surcharge rose on people’s bills in 2011, primarily to support a massive increase in solar installations, this only amounted to about 14% of consumer electricity bills, a relatively small share. According to the The Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment, and Energy, in a report sponsored by the German Renewable Energy Agency and supported by the Heinrich Boell Stiftung North America, the average household did not have to spend more than “about 0.3% of its net income on the support for renewable energies via the EEG (the German renewable energy law).

 SPIEGEL:  “The RWI also expects the green energy surcharge on electricity bills to go up again soon.”

FACT: The Wuppertal Institute for Climate, Environment, and Energy reports that RWI’s “costs are overestimated by at least 6% and up to 42%.”  According to the German Federal Environment Ministry, the renewable energy surcharge will continue to rise until 2016 and then fall  until 2030.

FACT: It is also essential to understand that the surcharge for renewable energy in the German feed-in tariff law was designed to be temporary - to bring to grid parity the cost of installing renewable technologies, which have not benefited from the previous decades of pampering enjoyed by conventional energies. The surcharge is intended to phase out as this goal is achieved.  The German feed-in tariff law has been remarkably successful. In the case of solar power, which has had the most robust incentives because it was the most expensive at the outset, prices have fallen so dramatically and rapidly that the feed-in tariff for solar is consistently being cut substantially and may phase out entirely within 5 years. In the meantime, Germany’s renewable energy share of the mix has risen in a little over a decade from virtually zero to more than 20%, with solar making up 3%.*(See note.) Quite a feat for a country with the solar irradiation of Juno, Alaska. What’s more, many German communities have already achieved 100% renewable electricity, while some are already net exporters of renewable power and are enjoying economic revival as a result.

FACT: It is also important to highlight that the renewable energy surcharge on people’s electricity bills overestimates the actual costs to support renewable energies. Not reflected are: 1) the economic benefits of nearly 400,000 domestic jobs created in the renewable energy sector since the German renewable energy program went into effect (nearly half of which are directly attributable to the feed-in tariff); 2) the benefits to the environment of reducing carbon emissions, water usage, and pollution. In 2011 alone, renewable electricity and heating is estimated to have saved 87.6 million tons of carbon dioxide; 3) major savings in fuel import costs, amounting to 2.5 billion euros in 2010, and substantially more than this in 2011; 4) the fact that actual electricity prices have consistently come down with the increase of renewable power sources, a phenomenon called the “merit order effect.” According to a recent study by Germany's Institute for Future Energy Systems (IZES) for the German Solar Industry Association (BSW-Solar), solar power has reduced the price of electricity on the spot exchange by an average of 10 percent, with reductions of up to 40 percent at peak hours in the afternoon when conventional power is most expensive. In all, the report states that the price of electricity on the power exchange has dropped due to the merit order effect by as much as 520 to 840 million euros.

SPIEGEL:  “For the same cost, wind supplies at least five times as much electricity as solar, while hydroelectric power plants generate six times as much.  Even biomass plants are still three times as efficient as solar.”

FACT: This statement fails to recognize Germany’s limited potential to expand its hydro, wind, and biomass installations. It also ignores the reality that a combination of renewable technologies is critical to grid stability. To illustrate using the technologies mentioned in the article, solar energy gives important peak power benefits, while wind tends to be stronger at off peak hours and along the cloudier coast, and biomass and hydropower provide essential baseload support.

SPIEGEL: “It appears that the subsidies have made the German manufacturers lethargic. They invest only 2 to 3 percent of revenues in research and development, compared with an average of 6 percent in the auto industry and about 30 percent in biomedicine.”

FACT: As journalist Craig Morris points out, these incentives are open to the world-wide market, so why didn’t they make the Chinese lethargic as well? He adds that First Solar’s most recent annual report shows the “firm invested 3.7 percent of its net sales from 2010 in R&D, compared to 3.8 percent in 2009 – but only 2.7 percent in 2008. Despite its clearly higher R&D ratio, First Solar nonetheless failed to defend its market leadership, having been passed up by a Chinese manufacturer.

Morris rightly concludes “that the R&D ratio is not the main factor. Remember Solyndra? That firm famously went bankrupt after receiving a loan worth $500 million, but as Stephen Lacey recently pointed out in The Guardian, Chinese firms are on a completely different market, having received some $30 billion in practically interest-free loans from their government in 2010 alone. Therein lies the crux. But while cell and panel manufacturers near the end of the value chain are struggling in Germany, further up the value chain production plant equipment suppliers in Germany still command nearly half of the global market.”

What is the bottom line in all this for the U.S.?

First, the Germans should be appreciated for and emulated in leading and continuing to lead the way to rapidly driving down the cost of solar power.

Second, the U.S. is not even close to facing Germany’s challenges of rapid solar growth. To put things in perspective, in both 2010 and 2011, Germany installed more than twice the solar power that the entire U.S. has in the past 30 years. Based on figures from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), Craig Morris estimates that for the U.S. to risk exceeding its peak power demand with solar PV, it would need more than 300,000 megawatts of installed PV.

Third, feed-in tariffs as Germany has designed them remain the best option for rapidly increasing renewable energy with the most economic benefits - including lower installation costs, locally owned clean power, job growth, protection from the steep price of environmental and nuclear hazards, and modest impacts to ratepayers. 

Germany has a three-pronged approach to their feed-in tariff law that is a proven winning combination: 1) transparent, long term pricing that allows recouping of renewable installation costs plus a reasonable profit, differentiated by technology; 2) guaranteed connection to the grid in a timely manner; and 3) requirement that utilities pay for any upgrades the grid needed to connect renewable power. These three principles, combined with simple, streamlined permitting of renewable energy projects, are the recipe for success. We would be unwise to not to adapt it to our system as quickly as possible, especially when our own methods for cleaning up our energy mix have had a far less successful track record, and so much is at stake for future generations.

This piece was written by Diane Moss and Angelina Galiteva, Founding Board Directors, Renewables 100 Policy Institute.

*Author's note: To clarify, the renewable share of Germany's electricity mix in 1990 was just over 3% and close to 6% at the turn of the millenium when the country was launching its modern renewable electricity policy. Hydropower contributed the vast majority of this amount. While the share of hydropower has remained fairly stable in Germany since the dawn of the millenium, other renewable energy technologies (wind, solar, biomass, biowaste, and to some extent, geothermal) have increased substantially, which has spawned new industries and hundreds of domestic thousands of jobs.

The information and views expressed in this blog post are solely those of the author and not necessarily those of RenewableEnergyWorld.com or the companies that advertise on this Web site and other publications. This blog was posted directly by the author and was not reviewed for accuracy, spelling or grammar.

24 Comments

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ANONYMOUS
May 28, 2012
bon-ray writes on comment #21:
"> "Why not quote the absolute costs and let readers decide if they think these are large or not?"

How could people judge what the absolute cost represented without hundreds of other factors also reported? The percentage is key and is small given the net benefits provided by solar PV investment."

Interpreting the price data is just not that hard as long as it is provided. Of course, when the data don't support your point I can understand why you would want to suppress it. The EEG that funds the solar buildout is up to $0.048/kWh and has only resulting in 3% solar generation; by comparison, the mean cost of generation in the US is $0.06/kWh. With costs running this high to get 3% market penetration getting an additional 23% of generation so the nuclear power can be phased out will be extraordinarily expensive. Germany has been very aggressive at spending money on its renewable energy program while producing modest results. This isn't what I would call "success" especially if I was one of the ratepayers funding the effort.
Steven
ANONYMOUS
May 28, 2012
bon-ray in comment #21 writes:

> "German exports in the same period were down 7% and its imports were up 17%"

Having just lectured on use of aggregate data, Steven immediately ignores his own advice. Germany remains a *net* exporter of electricity.

Germany was just barely a net exporter for last year and they didn't start powering down nuclear reactors until April. 2012 will almost certainly see them move into being a net importer and the situation will only get worse when they power down the remainder of their reactors. If bon-ray had been reading carefully he would have noticed I did mention the net exports in addition to the percentage change.

bon-ray also writes:
"> "as more reactors get shut down, imports are likely the only way this capacity can be replaced."

Unless Germany deploys an alternative energy source? How about renewable energy?!"

Replacing their nuclear power, which was 23% of production, with intermittent renewables on a short timescale is going to be very problematic. The cost will be huge and the rate of deployment needed is far higher than what Germany has so far achieved. Additionally, the grid improvements needed to connect their planned offshore wind generation are way behind schedule. Anyone who thinks Germany will escape the need to make significant imports or delay the nuclear shutdown is living is a dreamland.
Steven
Bon Ray
Bon Ray
May 27, 2012
P.S. I found this article as a result of Germany just setting a new record of 20+ GW peak output for the last couple of days. Seems like the Germans are not paying attention to the Stevens of this world.

Great tool for viewing daily solar output: http://www.sma.de/en/company/pv-electricity-produced-in-germany.html
Bon Ray
Bon Ray
May 27, 2012
Good rebuttal of anti-solar FUD and propaganda.

Poor attempt by 'Steven' in the comments to spin Germany's clear success with solar PV in to a failure - but anyone who has been following the energy 'debate' for a while will recognise many of his flawed arguments and nit-picking.

> "France exports more electricity to Germany than it imports from Germany and overall it is a large net exporter"

True, but France is *forced* to export electricity due to its inflexible nuke fleet. The French sell their electricity when they have low domestic demand - e.g. middle of the night - at low market prices. They are often forced to import at times of high demand - e.g. very cold weather - at high market prices. It's lose / lose for the French due to their inflexible nukes.

> "German exports in the same period were down 7% and its imports were up 17%"

Having just lectured on use of aggregate data, Steven immediately ignores his own advice. Germany remains a *net* exporter of electricity.

> "as more reactors get shut down, imports are likely the only way this capacity can be replaced."

Unless Germany deploys an alternative energy source? How about renewable energy?!

> "Why not quote the absolute costs and let readers decide if they think these are large or not?"

How could people judge what the absolute cost represented without hundreds of other factors also reported? The percentage is key and is small given the net benefits provided by solar PV investment.

> "The surcharge is likely to go up significantly next year; in the year before last it experienced a 72% jump"

Steven just lectured us on using absolute costs!! It seems that Steven's rules do not apply to Steven when it suits him.

> "seems like obfuscation to me."

I think Steven might be an expert on this subject.
Louis Shaffer
Louis Shaffer
March 2, 2012
I am still waiting for a financial view of PV and other renewables for investments NOW. The FIT commitments made in past years are done (I don't see Germany pulling a Spain or Czech Republic move). Germany did the right thing in investing in their future, and probably will pay at least some cost for this.

However, the FIT are much lower now. I believe the Utilities now pay less than they charge. PV also helps them manage reactive power on the grid. So, what will installations in 2012 really add to the energy bill vs. what they will save over the next 25 years versus other power types? I am convinced that there is much more savings by PV which has very low costs now to install and run vs. any other form of power. It would be nice to see an analysis to suppor this. EPIA?
Jim McKirdy
Jim McKirdy
February 23, 2012
I like this completly. Why not base reports on facts and not fiction. The whole world can learn from this information. Leave it up to Germany to take the lead. I really enjoyed reading facts and not just one sided views. For some reason people just don't understand the sun's energy is our solution to coal, nuclear and yes even oil for generating electric power. Some one once told me the sun goes away at night. This same person thinks the world if flat. Here is another fact. As solar, wind and hydro grow we will not need fuel for electric power. When that day comes we can all live longer. Thats my life long goal.
ANONYMOUS
February 22, 2012
Forgedaboutit - Americans are cheap b*****ds that wouldn't spend ten cents to make the environment better. If you inhale enough mercury it starts to affect your mental process. The Danes apparently spend about $240M per year to keep their FF plants offline as much as possible and they have the cleanest fossil fuel plants in the world.
Ralph Perez
Ralph Perez
February 21, 2012
The massive push toward electric vehicles Germany is making would seem to quell this problem to a certain degree. With battery makers moving toward types (do a search on V2G - vehicle to grid) that will "feed in" as well as draw power from sunshine when needed, the inconsistency of the sunlight absorption curve will be smoothed out. Quick change batteries also extend the range and are much faster than a gasoline stop.
China's 100's of thousands of electric vehicles would seem to be allowed a similar solution (feed in batteries). No matter what the weather is, these batteries will be charging (wind, water or sunshine). The trick is to develop the technologies simultaneously.
Warmer climates might generate much more power from sunshine than they can actually use.
ANONYMOUS
February 17, 2012
continuation of comment #15:
German policy makers wanted to create a constant yearly market increase of ~3000 MW/year. This isn't want happened and this was because top-down market control is inherently inflexible. The government had no policy to cap demand and an overly rigid schedule to adjust subsidy rates so they got more PV added than they wanted. If Germany wanted to spend 100 Billion Euros promoting renewable technologies there were better ways to do it.

We should be developing an energy infrastructure that allows us to phase out CO2 emissions in time to avert significant climate change. Unfortunately, we are not proceeding in a strategic manner but are instead squandering resources and creating damaging boom/bust cycles. Phasing out nuclear power instead of coal fired generation is yet another blunder. The European style FITs are a mistake we cannot afford to repeat.
Steven
ANONYMOUS
February 17, 2012
Regarding comment #14:
If supply is constrained and demand is increased this will put upward pressure on prices. Thus, in the context of the PV market where the baseline trend is rapidly falling prices, this effect merely means prices would have fallen more rapidly with lower demand. German demand manipulation created a situation in which for a few years solar PV manufacturers were able to maintain tolerable margins and every company, no matter how poorly run, could sell virtually all they produced. This situation was rapidly upended when the constraint on silicon wafers disappeared. The resulting glut in capacity has left many industry players in very bad shape and the European share of PV manufacturing has plummeted as a consequence. Some might even call that a policy failure.

The solar PV market has existed for half a century and prices have declined steadily. It we wanted to credit an entity with being a catalyst for starting the PV market it would be NASA in the very early days. After that point the off-grid market and direct R&D funding was large enough to sustain progress. Poring money into production has only a weak effect on product development. The usual trend for market share with a new technology is that a better product leads to lower prices which leads to higher demand, the converse isn't true.

continued
Renewables 100 Policy Institute
Renewables 100 Policy Institute
February 17, 2012
Thanks, Steven.

You wrote: "In particular, when supply bottlenecks exist--as was the case for silicon wafers until quite recently--increasing demand merely increases prices."

The price of solar has been coming down steadily. What data leads you to say that increasing demand is increasing prices?

You wrote: "Germany has committed to EEG payments of on the order of 100 Billion Euros and has merely sped up the PV market by a few years at most."

We, along with numerous industry, financial, and government reports, would argue that the EEG did not merely speed up the PV market by a few years; it was the key catalyst to creating a significant PV market.

Also, what do you see as inflexible in the nature of the German FIT?
ANONYMOUS
February 17, 2012
continuation of comment #12:

Hopefully it was clear from the context that the basis on which I referred to solar as inefficient was one of price/performance. The technology is improving and will one day provide for a modest percentage of generation at a reasonable price. When that day arrives Germany will have already purchased much or all of the PV that it can readily accommodate into its generation mix at a premium price. This is unwise. Furthermore the inflexible nature of their FIT scheme caused them to purchase far more PV than they had intended to and this lead to vendors expanding capacity far in excess of future needs. The boom and bust cycles in the PV industry are directly related to ineffective top-down market manipulation.
Steven
ANONYMOUS
February 17, 2012
renewables100PI wrote in comment 8:
'STEVEN WROTE: Increasing demand for an inefficient product is a poor way to spur innovation. 2 to 3% going to R&D seems low to me. Why not fund R&D directly ?

This misses point. See the article. R&D spending has not spelled success recently in the solar industry. Solyndra is an example.

Increasing demand is a way to bring prices down for any technology, including renewable energy technologies. This has been the purpose of the FIT, and it has been successful in its aim.

You call solar power inefficient, but on what terms? One can argue that powering a house with the sun using solar panels on a roof that are paid back in less than half the lifespan of the technology is more efficient than power from coal, uranium, or natural gas that is mined and transported from far away – sometimes other countries – then processed, turned into electricity that is transmitted over miles of transmission lines, and along the way polluting the environment and endangering public health.'

I did not miss you point, I merely disagree with it. Citing Solyndra merely shows that some choices in development lead to failures. It says nothing about the overall effectiveness of R&D in accelerating technology development. We could cite a thousand examples of research that has led to improvements in PV. Increasing demand is not a uniformly effective way to bring prices down. In particular, when supply bottlenecks exist--as was the case for silicon wafers until quite recently--increasing demand merely increases prices. Decreasing prices leads to increased demand and the best way to decrease prices is to design a better product. Trying to change the rate at which a new technology is developed by increasing production is expensive and inefficient. Germany has committed to EEG payments of on the order of 100 Billion Euros and has merely sped up the PV market by a few years at most.

continued
ANONYMOUS
February 17, 2012
renewables100PI wrote in comment #7:
'STEVEN WROTE: The surcharge is only a small percentage of costs because German electricity rates are in the ballpark of $0.30/kWh. Having extremely high electricity rates is one way to have solar achieve grid parity but I would not characterize this as a success.

On the one hand, you admit that the surcharge for renewables is a small part of electricity rates in Germany. On the other hand, you state that support for solar is causing the high electricity rates. We think >1 – 14% of the entire rate is a small amount to pay. The German public, according to polls cited in the article, agrees. We think it is especially small when external benefits and the merit order effect are taken into account.'

The only rational reason to invest heavily in renewables would be to reduce atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Success in this regard requires renewable technologies that everyone can afford--not just Germans who are flush with spare cash they do not mind frittering away.

It is a fact that German electricity rates are VERY high--roughly $0.30/kWh or higher.

It is a fact that the EEG surcharge is high--$0.048/kWh and that it has only funded a small amount of renewable generation.

You say that paying a high EEG surcharge is OK because ratepayers are being overcharged for electricity by much more than that. By my count that is two egregious problems. When the US military was caught paying $100 for a toilet seat, at least they did not have the audacity to claim it was OK because it was only a small percentage of the military budget.

Finally, you argue that high rates are OK because Germans don't mind paying them. I maintain that public opinion is not predictive of sound economic policy and when you suggest we should emulate German behavior you greatly underestimate the frugalness of the US ratepayer if you think that is a reasonable likelihood.
Steven
ANONYMOUS
February 17, 2012
renewables100PI wrote:
"STEVEN WROTE: The use of anecdotal data is a common tactic when aggregate data do not support your argument.

--You are missing – and misconstruing - our point, which was that the Spiegel article erred in implying that Germany has to import electricity during the cold winter due to solar power being ineffective, when the recent data refute this and show that the opposite was true."

The Spiegel article was correct, albeit somewhat dramatic in its remarks. Germany has increased imports at times. The anecdotal data you cite only shows that Germany does not have to import electricity every winter day, so it is NOT a refutation of the Spiegel comment. The example you cite would suggest to readers that France is dependent on Germany for electricity supplies. The truth is that France exports more electricity to Germany than the reverse and France net exports are vastly more than Germany's following the closure of their 7 nuclear reactors. Germany has also had challenges with its grid stability and has had to activate reserve coal reactors. See one report here:
http://www.vancouversun.com/news/Germany+forced+into+coal+power+reserves/6125777/story.html

In an article titled "Clearing up the facts" you choose to cherry pick data and present it in a manner that would suggest it is a counterexample to some of the claims in the Spiegel article. Now that supply and demand are so closely matched and much of supply is variable Germany will have to import more frequently than in the past when its baseload capacity was larger. There are many things one could quibble about in the Spiegel article, but the statement on imports isn't one of them.
Steven
ANONYMOUS
February 17, 2012
renewables100PI wrote:
"STEVEN WROTE: the large jump over 2010 is partly due to a drop in overall usage of 4-5%

This logic seems off or unclear. A drop in total usage would not necessarily reduce the percentage of renewable power used. Percentages are proportional to the total."

This is not a hard concept. % renewables = (renewable generation)/consumption
The quantity of the left hand side can be raised by either raising the numerator on the right hand side or lowering the denominator on the right hand side. Both effects were at play in allowing the jump to 20% renewables. Mild weather allowed demand to drop about 4-5% and renewable generation increased. However, it is worth noting that both wind and hydro power for 2011 increased far more than their generation capacity increased indicating that weather related effects were at play here too.
Steven
Renewables 100 Policy Institute
Renewables 100 Policy Institute
February 17, 2012
STEVEN WROTE: Increasing demand for an inefficient product is a poor way to spur innovation. 2 to 3% going to R&D seems low to me. Why not fund R&D directly ?

This misses point. See the article. R&D spending has not spelled success recently in the solar industry. Solyndra is an example.

Increasing demand is a way to bring prices down for any technology, including renewable energy technologies. This has been the purpose of the FIT, and it has been successful in its aim.

You call solar power inefficient, but on what terms? One can argue that powering a house with the sun using solar panels on a roof that are paid back in less than half the lifespan of the technology is more efficient than power from coal, uranium, or natural gas that is mined and transported from far away – sometimes other countries – then processed, turned into electricity that is transmitted over miles of transmission lines, and along the way polluting the environment and endangering public health.

STEVEN WROTE: German subsidies have contributed to a huge glut of PV on the market and industry operating with very low or even negative margins. In such an environment defending market share from Chinese companies that receive government support allowing them to operate with negative margins is very difficult. If the goal of the FITs was to create a healthy German PV industry they have failed.

The FIT catalyzed the creation of the PV industry in Germany and worldwide. We see the current market challenges as a shakeout period in a relatively new industry, not as a failure of the FIT. If a more perfect policy exisited that would entirely prevent market growing pains while achieving equal results of renewable energy installation, industry and job growth, and environmental benefits, we'd love to see it. We have not seen it yet.
Renewables 100 Policy Institute
Renewables 100 Policy Institute
February 17, 2012
STEVEN WROTE: The use of anecdotal data is a common tactic when aggregate data do not support your argument.

--You are missing – and misconstruing - our point, which was that the Spiegel article erred in implying that Germany has to import electricity during the cold winter due to solar power being ineffective, when the recent data refute this and show that the opposite was true.

STEVEN WROTE: The surcharge is only a small percentage of costs because German electricity rates are in the ballpark of $0.30/kWh. Having extremely high electricity rates is one way to have solar achieve grid parity but I would not characterize this as a success.

On the one hand, you admit that the surcharge for renewables is a small part of electricity rates in Germany. On the other hand, you state that support for solar is causing the high electricity rates. We think >1 – 14% of the entire rate is a small amount to pay. The German public, according to polls cited in the article, agrees. We think it is especially small when external benefits and the merit order effect are taken into account.
Renewables 100 Policy Institute
Renewables 100 Policy Institute
February 17, 2012
Below are some thoughts in response to Steven's contrarian comments.

STEVEN WROTE: In 2010, the last year where results are not based on preliminary figures, renewables amounted to 16.5%.

The BMU published figures renewable share of gross electricity consumption in Germany was 17.1 percent in 2010. It is true that the 20% figure is preliminary, but it comes from a credible source (BDEW) and has been cited by the German Renewable Energy Agency, which is good enough for us. We'll update the blog, if the final figures come out different. But we don't want to lose sight of the point—which is that there has been a large increase in the share of renewable electricity in Germany since the country began focusing on it in the late 1990's/early 2000's.

http://www.erneuerbare-energien.de/files/pdfs/allgemein/application/pdf/ee_zahlen_internet-update.pdf

STEVEN WROTE: the large jump over 2010 is partly due to a drop in overall usage of 4-5%

This logic seems off or unclear. A drop in total usage would not necessarily reduce the percentage of renewable power used. Percentages are proportional to the total.


STEVEN WROTE: Saying France "had to" import electricity from Germany is a stretch. They chose to import electricity, doubtless because importing was cheaper than using expensive peaking capacity, but "had to" suggests that they had no alternative

-- According to reports, such as this one below in Le Monde, French electricity production was short of demand (by 8% as cited in this article).
http://www.lemonde.fr/planete/article/2012/02/10/le-nucleaire-est-il-vraiment-un-atout-en-periode-de-grand-froid_1641073_3244.html

This would mean that France had to import electricity or fail to meet demand. This would not have been a great prospect, especially in freezing weather with much of heat in France supplied by electricity.
ANONYMOUS
February 17, 2012
The authors write:
"SPIEGEL: 'It appears that the subsidies have made the German manufacturers lethargic. They invest only 2 to 3 percent of revenues in research and development, compared with an average of 6 percent in the auto industry and about 30 percent in biomedicine.'

FACT: As journalist Craig Morris points out, these incentives are open to the world-wide market, so why didn't they make the Chinese lethargic as well? He adds that First Solar's most recent annual report shows the "firm invested 3.7 percent of its net sales from 2010 in R&D, compared to 3.8 percent in 2009 – but only 2.7 percent in 2008. Despite its clearly higher R&D ratio, First Solar nonetheless failed to defend its market leadership, having been passed up by a Chinese manufacturer."

Increasing demand for an inefficient product is a poor way to spur innovation. 2 to 3% going to R&D seems low to me. Why not fund R&D directly ? German subsidies have contributed to a huge glut of PV on the market and industry operating with very low or even negative margins. In such an environment defending market share from Chinese companies that receive government support allowing them to operate with negative margins is very difficult. If the goal of the FITs was to create a healthy German PV industry they have failed.
Steven
ANONYMOUS
February 17, 2012
The authors write:
" According to a recent study by Germany's Institute for Future Energy Systems (IZES) for the German Solar Industry Association (BSW-Solar), solar power has reduced the price of electricity on the spot exchange by an average of 10 percent, with reductions of up to 40 percent at peak hours in the afternoon when conventional power is most expensive. In all, the report states that the price of electricity on the power exchange has dropped due to the merit order effect by as much as 520 to 840 million euros."

The cost of purchasing electricity on the spot market has decreased BUT overall electricity prices have increased. In is interesting to note that even with only a 3% market share for solar PV, the peak in the spot market prices shifted from midday to about 7 PM according to this study. This suggests that further increases in the share of generation due to PV will no longer have the same beneficial effect--by 7 PM solar generation is on the wane. We should also remember that demand was done in 2011 compared to that for 2007, and this would also contribute to a reduction in spot prices.
Steven
ANONYMOUS
February 17, 2012
The authors write:
"FACT: Although the renewable energy surcharge rose on people's bills in 2011, primarily to support a massive increase in solar installations, this only amounted to about 14% of consumer electricity bills, a relatively small share."

Why not quote the absolute costs and let readers decide if they think these are large or not? Suggesting that a large change is only a small percentage of an even larger charge seems like obfuscation to me.

The EEG surcharge is 3.592 eurocents/kWh in 2012 or $0.048/kWh at current exchange rates. About 56% of the surcharge is due to solar PV subsidies. Costs to generate electricity in the US average about $0.06/kWh with another ~$0.04/kWh in transmission and distribution costs. Thus, the EEG surcharge alone amounts to 80% of the cost of US generation. The surcharge is likely to go up significantly next year; in the year before last it experienced a 72% jump. The surcharge is only a small percentage of costs because German electricity rates are in the ballpark of $0.30/kWh. Having extremely high electricity rates is one way to have solar achieve grid parity but I would not characterize this as a success.
Steven
ANONYMOUS
February 17, 2012
The authors write: "FACT: During Europe's extreme cold weather in February 2012, German news reported that Germany actually increased its electricity exports, thanks in part to photovoltaics helping to strengthen grid stability at peak hours. France, in turn, relying on nuclear powered heating, had to import electricity from Germany.

FACT: Germany has been a longtime net electricity exporter. In Summer 2011, the country did need to intermittently import electricity from neighboring countries; however, the cause was not attributed to photovoltaics, but to the nation's ambitious shutdown of 7 nuclear power plants following the Fukushima disaster. Despite this bold move, Germany again became a net exporter of electricity in October 2011, according to the International Energy Agency's most recent statistics."

Saying France "had to" import electricity from Germany is a stretch. They chose to import electricity, doubtless because importing was cheaper than using expensive peaking capacity, but "had to" suggests that they had no alternative.

The use of anecdotal data is a common tactic when aggregate data do not support your argument. France exports more electricity to Germany than it imports from Germany and overall it is a large net exporter (net exports in the 11 month IEA data are 65 TWh). German exports in the same period were down 7% and its imports were up 17% (for net exports of 1.4 TWh--about 2% of the French exports). Nuclear power still contributed ~18% of generation in 2011 (down from ~23% in the prior year), as more reactors get shut down, imports are likely the only way this capacity can be replaced.
Steven
ANONYMOUS
February 17, 2012
The author's write: " In the meantime, Germany's renewable energy share of the mix has risen in a little over a decade from virtually zero to more than 20%, with solar making up 3%. Quite a feat for a country with the solar irradiation of Juno, Alaska. "

In an article that uses the word "FACT" so often the authors are surprisingly careless and selective with them. I note that in 2001 German renewables accounted for ~6.7% of gross consumption, which few would characterize as "virtually zero." In 2010, the last year where results are not based on preliminary figures, renewables amounted to 16.5%. The 20% estimate for 2011 is preliminary and the large jump over 2010 is partly due to a drop in overall usage of 4-5% due mainly to unseasonably mild weather and a 22% increase in wind generation, which seems fortuitously high because wind generation capacity only increased by 5.6% in 2010 and 6.8% in 2011.
Steven

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