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Don't Miss The Great Solar Debate: Where Does the Global Solar Industry Stand? Click Here to Register! ×

Bigger Subsidies Make Bigger Solar a Bad Bet

John Farrell
December 19, 2011  |  6 Comments

Americans seem unable to resist big things, and solar power plants are no exception. There may be no reasoning with an affinity for all things “super sized,” but the economics of large scale solar projects (and the unwelcome public scrutiny) should bury the notion that bigger is better for solar.

In fact, smaller scale solar and the right solar policy could get more solar for the dollar and more public support for renewable energy.

There are three problems with large-scale solar (100 megawatts and up).  First, no solar power plant of this size has ever been constructed without a government loan guarantee.  The 250-megawatt California Solar Ranch is an example, and the project was recently targeted in a New York Times expose on subsidies for large solar power.  The loan guarantee is extremely valuable to NRG, the project owner, so much so that its chief executive was rather hyperbolic when describing the opportunity to investors:

“I have never seen anything that I have had to do in my 20 years in the power industry that involved less risk than these projects,” he said in a recent interview. “It is just filling the desert with panels.”

So far, the federal Department of Energy has provided loan guarantees to 16 large-scale solar power plants. The benefits for the California Solar Ranch (and likely other federally-backed large solar projects) also include lower interest rates (3.5% rather than 7%).  No comparable subsidy exists for small-scale solar, despite there being many times more solar electricity coming off distributed solar projects (20 megawatts and smaller) than large solar plants.  The irony is that these large loan guarantees typically back large corporations with deep pockets like NRG, whereas small-scale solar projects are frequently financed without comparable federal largess by individual homeowners or small businesses.

The second problem with large-scale solar is that it has a minimal cost advantage over small-scale solar.  According to the LBNL Tracking the Sun report for 2010, there are economies of scale for solar power projects.  But residential solar is installed for as little as $4.40 per Watt as part of a group purchase program in Los Angeles, whereas utility-scale solar is only marginally better at $3.75 per Watt in mid-2011, a difference of about 3 cents per kilowatt-hour.  But in Germany, small solar (up to 100 kilowatts) is installed at an average price of $3.20 per Watt, besting large-scale American solar.

There’s also the question of speed.  A small-scale solar project can be operational in months, but the California Solar Ranch has been in development since mid-2008.  Another large-scale solar project, the 280-megawatt Mojave Solar concentrating solar thermal power plant, has been in development for five years (as with most concentrating solar thermal power plants, it takes much longer to develop).  For perspective, the U.S. has installed 1,600 megawatts of smaller-scale solar over the past three years, the Germans have installed 12,000 megawatts.  J.R. DeShazo, director of UCLA’s Luskin Center for Innovation explains why small-scale solar can deploy faster (especially with the right policy).

Distributed solar has an edge in the speed with which it will respond to financial incentives...The private sector will begin to install solar panels in response to a feed-in tariff much more quickly than developers of large solar projects can negotiate power-purchase agreements with utilities and win regulatory approval from the government.

The Solar Electric Power Association has identified barriers to speedy deployment of large-scale (greater than 50-megawatt) solar power plants:

PV projects, which ranged in size from 1-kilowatt residential installations to 48-megawatt power plants, have much shorter planning horizons and project completion times, along with lesser siting, permitting, financing and transmission requirements at these small- and medium-sized scales.

However, larger PV and CSP projects (those greater than 50 MW) require overcoming financing, siting/permitting, and transmission barriers that might emerge at these larger sizes. [emphasis added]

Ultimately, it’s a question of picking winners: large corporations or the average citizen.  Subsidies for solar that are only for big projects and big corporations don’t generate popular support for solar.  In fact, the desert location of these power plants is often a point of contention.

In contrast, when solar policies support local ownership of solar, the average rooftop PV system generates two solar voters and greater support for favorable solar energy policy as well as electricity.  This political value has been captured in a German study of attitudes toward more wind power, focusing on two towns with nearby wind projects, one locally owned and the other not.  Support for expanding local wind energy is 40 points higher when existing projects are locally owned, and overwhelmingly negative when they are not.

The German energy program plays off the popularity of local ownership, with their easy-to-use feed-in tariff allowing anyone to become a clean energy producer by offering a guaranteed, long-term contract at an attractive price.  Half of their 53,000-megawatt renewable energy market is locally owned, making their clean energy policies nearly inviolate despite the (completely transparent) cost increase to German ratepayers.

The German program is also equitable, offering contract prices based on project size, helping democratize their energy system by letting any citizen participate.  The big boys can play, but without additional handouts.

Big solar projects shine with big numbers, but if Americans are serious about solar power they should support policies for smaller scale.  Otherwise, the clean energy future may look a lot like the dirty energy past, with big companies in charge and ordinary citizens left holding the bag.

This post originally appeared on Energy Self-Reliant States, a resource of the Institute for Local Self-Reliance's New Rules Project.

The information and views expressed in this blog post are solely those of the author and not necessarily those of RenewableEnergyWorld.com or the companies that advertise on this Web site and other publications. This blog was posted directly by the author and was not reviewed for accuracy, spelling or grammar.

6 Comments

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ANONYMOUS
December 29, 2011
Alligatorhardt writes:
"For the commenter that prefers utility scale solar because of the lower installation prices, he seems to be missing out on the most important part of home solar ownership, and that is the period after payoff of the product and installation. Payoff is 10 years or less, but systems are guaranteed to operate for 25 years and likely last much longer...."

Alligatorhardt seems to fail to understand that the solar panels will last just as long on a residential roof as in a utility scale install but the utility scale project will be much cheaper. Thus, for a fixed amount of funding much more solar PV will be installed if we fund large projects rather than small ones. It is irrational to have a Federal subsidy that pays a fixed percentage of the total costs--the subsidy should be a fixed amount per MW installed (or kWh produced). This would encourage the most efficient installations, which would be better for the solar PV industry and for the environment.

Alligatorhardt makes certain claims about 10 year paybacks and the like which are dubious. If, however, these are true, we should ask why ratepayers (via net metering) and taxpayers are asked to subsidize residential PV at all.
Steven
Allen Gerhardt
Allen Gerhardt
December 29, 2011
For the commenter that prefers utility scale solar because of the lower installation prices, he seems to be missing out on the most important part of home solar ownership, and that is the period after payoff of the product and installation. Payoff is 10 years or less, but systems are guaranteed to operate for 25 years and likely last much longer. That means an end to utility bills for decades beyond the period of costs. who would choose to pay forever when they can own their own system and realize the profit for themselves. all it would take is for low interest loans to become available, and people will start installing much more solar in short order. The FIT program is very important. Here in Florida, our legislators have chosen protectionism over citizens needs, and buy back of power is only worth 6 cent per kwh, and only paid as a credit toward your utility electric bill. No one is encouraged to install more than they need in this system, as those who generate more than enough for their own use will be giving it away for free to the utility. That is why many are seeing off grid systems, sized carefully as the best choice, as utilities are allowed to create a lousy deal for the homeowner.
Alex White
Alex White
December 25, 2011
It's time to tell the truth about solar power – it isn't making ANY difference. In the last 10 years more than $1 trillion was spent worldwide and yet new demand outpaced this solar capacity by 3:1.

It's clear something needs to be done, but even if we spent $500 billion on solar in the next few years the reduction in CO2 emissions would be less than 3%. Insignificant.

We should be looking at burning natural gas cleaner with the proven technology of oxy-fuel combustion (replacing coal and conventional NG), which has very low emissions of CO2 and no NOX. $500 billion invested in that idea would cut CO2 by +70%.

I'm following a guy in Austin, TX that makes a lot of sense. He has a solution. The Introduction is here:

http://www.solutioneur.com

Let's make some real progress and stop pretending solar is going to solve the problem – it cannot.
ANONYMOUS
December 20, 2011
Any article or comment that just looks at comparative costs between market segments is shallow, because it is missing the comparative analysis of returns. Sure, residential costs more than utility-scale per watt, but it offers different and high value savings for the utility by siting close to load, by installing power plants modularly and fast, and on and on.

Go look at the RW Beck report for Arizona Public Service to see that the utility, and ostensibly its ratepayers, are reaping 8-14 c/kWh from rooftop solar in the form of avoided fuel costs, avoided line losses, distribution grid benefits, and so on.

Then add in what they didn't count-- residential or commercial solar as a "lead generator" for energy efficiency purchases. Greater local economic benefits and jobs associated with those installations. Water savings from avoided traditional generation. Etc.

Point is: it's all good and we need it all. Stop trying to pit little against big.
Matthew Tripoli
Matthew Tripoli
December 20, 2011
I'm failing to see the validity of the speed argument. I think saying that 1,600 MW's of small-scale developed in the US in three years really shortchanges the industry.

That effort represents years of actions to establish net-metering legislation, to build local electrical and engineering businesses, and for solar product makers to build and deploy commercial marketing and distribution chains.

Also, comparing that development result, to a five-year development timeline for one large-scale solar plant doesn't make a lot of sense. I'm not sure what kind of rhetorical fallacy that is, but I'm sure it is one.
ANONYMOUS
December 20, 2011
The link the author gives above on utility scale pricing includes this full quote: "In the second quarter, residential installations cost $6.42 per watt; nonresidential installations cost $5.20 per watt and installations done by the utilities themselves cost $3.75 per watt."

These are average values for each class of installation and when considering average values utility scale wins BIG, with residential costs 70% higher. The author chooses to compare one of the lowest cost residential projects (aided, in part, by group pricing) to the average cost of utility scale, but a fair comparison would be to the most efficient of the utility scale installs. Here again the utility scale installs win big with best prices in that time period below $3 per watt. The limited pricing data that exists also suggests utility scale pricing is dropping faster than residential scale indicating that their advantage will continue to grow. Furthermore, install prices ignore other advantages utility scale has including cheaper O&M and install locations with better insolation. As a ratepayer, if my choice is between paying for high-cost utility-scale solar power or hugely overpriced solar from small installs I'll go with the low cost vendor.
Steven

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John Farrell

John Farrell

John Farrell directs the Energy Self-Reliant States and Communities program at ILSR and he focuses on energy policy developments that best expand the benefits of local ownership and dispersed generation of renewable energy. His latest paper,...
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