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SolarWorld's Trade Complaint Announcement at SPI: PR Brilliance or Blunder?

By Tor 'Solar Fred' Valenza
November 2, 2011   |   11 Comments

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11 Reader Comments
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1 of 11
Anonymous
November 2, 2011
Prior to their filing the complaint with ITC/DOE, Solar World resigned its position on the Board of Directors of the Solar Energy Industry Association. I ask a couple of the board members that I know why they might have done this. I was told that each board member signs an annual statement affirming that they understand that they have a "fiduciary" responsibility to place the good of the industry ahead of interests of their own company. They knew that this was going to be bad for the industry and result in higher prices. It seems clear from the discussions that I have had that they resigned their position in order to avoid disciplinary action by SEIA.
Comment
2 of 11
November 2, 2011
Interesting piece, Fred. One critical question to ask is, will this give SolarWorld and other US crystalline-Si modules manufactures what they are looking for ... a market to themselves? Assuming for a minute that SolarWorld wins this fight and Chinese manufacturers are pulled out of the way (temporarily, until they set up their own manufacturing here), how and when does SolarWorld start fighting GE, Abound and other new thin-film players who quickly start eroding SolarWorld's market share as thin-film prices move quickly under a dollar, and increasing module efficiencies reduce the 'area needed' and extra BOS barrier/argument (i.e. at the right price their products would suffice for most projects under development)? Bear in mind that this will happen as early as next year. What then, SolarWorld? In this context, SolarWorld's move starts to look like it's about a temporary 'save me' strategy (just give me a few more quarters of better earnings) and less about the growth and health of the PV market.

SolarWorld's actions, if successful, will result a gigantic step backward for the broader solar industry in the US. You can bet that with a 100% tariff on Chinese imports, SolarWorld and all other US based manufacturers will also raise their prices, and why not, that's what the market allows. Higher pricing will absolutely have a negative impact on demand and growth the US market. Every job is precious, but the loss of US Solar manufacturing jobs will pale in comparison to the loss of the orders of magnitude more downstream solar jobs.

And in the end, it may not save their US operations anyway ...
Comment
3 of 11
EIS
November 2, 2011
SolarWorld is correct in their actions.

China played the same game with the steel industry under Clinton. They dumped Chinese steel on us shores at a lower price than it cost them to mfg it in China. They can do this because they subsidize their production facilities and manipulate their currency to offset international market disparities. Their intent was to collapse the US steel market so the US would have to import all steel from China.

The fight is not a fair one. US mfg cannot compete with price fixing and currency manipulation. China must be held to account or the US will lose mfg jobs.

The steel industry is almost dead in the US and would be dead if not for intervention to stop the subsidized dumping.

Lets not have this happen to solar in the US.
Comment
4 of 11
November 3, 2011
The timing of the lawsuit announcement prompted tremendous attention to both Solarworld and the plight of US manufacturers. Coverage continues, including blogs like this. EIS is absolutely correct. This is a trade war and we have lost, continue to lose, almost every battle.

I submit if we will be lucky if a 30% tariff will be levied. This does not mean US manufacturers will increase prices. It means we are getting toward a level playing field. If prices stabilize US manufacturers can sell their products and US distributors can begin to recover the devastation caused to that sector by the Chinese dumping.

If prices stabilize art, say, $1.50/watt integrators who can keep tight control of their overhead will be able to price solar at a compelling price to sell more residential and commercial, even where there are no rebates. This is where we need to be.
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5 of 11
Anonymous
November 3, 2011
Fred ... what you said. Why can't we just all get along?

'This does not mean US manufacturers will increase prices.'?? Send your hogs to flight training school immediately. Most US manufacturers are module manufacturers who depend on commodity materials (cells, encapsulant, glass, aluminum), a significant part of which comes from China, and if it didn't Taiwan, Malaysia, Poland, Viet Nam, the list goes on. Of couse, one could tariff the lot of them. Sounds good: stabilize prices at $1.50/Watt while raising input cost by 30% -- no one has that much margin to eat ... duoh!

Compare US fuel ethanol prices to Brazilian fuel ethanol prices: apparently the tariff barrier must make it cheaper -- not!
Comment
6 of 11
November 4, 2011
Note to commenters: As the author writes, this article is NOT about the merits of the trade complaint, but the PR strategy.

My two cents: announcing during SPI was good. Absent the trade complaint story, the dominant theme of mainstream news coverage of SPI could well have been Solyndra. Also, kudos to SEIA for the way they handled things.
Comment
7 of 11
November 4, 2011
Actually, Jason, I think we were finally getting over the hump of Solyndra, and that we were on our way to restoring our reputation and celebrating our collective successes. As mentioned above, SolarWorld's announcement distracted from all that. I do agree that SEIA handled it well.
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8 of 11
November 4, 2011
Hallelujah! Then comes the hard part- convincing the PV installers that cheaper is not better. To the degree they are convinced that they can sell, and make a decent margin, without buying the Chinese modules, US made equipment will have a chance to gain market share.

I do understand Fred's point and it's well made, but those matters are a bit beyond this discussion. If the US manufacturers cannot compete with the dumping pricing the details of individual raw materials pricing hardly matter.
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9 of 11
November 4, 2011
One of my points is the uncertainty that the complaint has caused the entire industry, especially large projects. If demand goes down further over the next year, this will hurt all manufacturers, BOS, inverter companies, and installers, including SolarWorld. I understand the jobs situation, but will it be at the expense of other industry jobs? Once again, I do not believe SolarWorld is serving its customers through this complaint, and that is a PR/marketing decision that I believe will hurt what had been a strong brand until now. Time will tell whether this decision hurts the profits as well as their brand.
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10 of 11
November 4, 2011
Fred:

Here's something I just googled that framed the opening of SPI by reference to Solyndra:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/44933749/Solar_After_Solyndra

We are not over Solyndra in terms of it being a continued story in the mainstream media, with the subtext that "green jobs are a scam." The trade complaint plays a valuable PR role of legitimizing the counter-argument that the Solyndra failure is not primarily the result of political cronyism around a loser technology, but rather that Solyndra's failure is just the 2011 version of "you can't afford to make VCRs, TVs, steel, etc. in the USA."
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11 of 11
November 4, 2011
I've been selling SOLARWORLD modules for 5 years and at one time loved the product.
It's a great product, and deserves a premium price per watt. The worse thing about SOLARWORLD which has lost them more customers over the years is their lack of communication they give to their customers. They change wattages each month making it impossible to do business. They change thier frame size and now sporting two frame sizes for the same footprint. You order 250 because thats why they tell you they have and when you go to order they tell you they don't have that wattage and make you pay for the new higher wattage and that means you also have o resign sting sizing and change building permits.
The final straw was the fact that they actually disinvited me to their SPI happy hour party. Only the week before I was helping my customers source the SOLARWORLD product from other vendors because I didn't carry it anymore.

I really hope the best for SOLARWORLD and pray they weather this pricing storm. They have a few great people working there, we don't need any more US module company's going backrupt which casts a black cloud over us all. And my selfish reason I want to make sure they will honor the warranty on my 5kw of their modules on my
house.
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