Predicting the Future of the RFS

“Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future.”

The National Research Council (NRC) inscribed this quote from Nobel Prize winner Niels Bohr on the preface of their latest report on the economic and environmental barriers to meeting the goals of the Renewable Fuel Standard.

Unfortunately, they failed to take this axiom to heart when they concluded that, “Absent major technological innovation or policy changes, the RFS2-mandated consumption of 16 billion gallons of ethanol-equivalent cellulosic biofuels is unlikely to be met in 2022.”

As Growth Energy CEO Tom Buis said, “the conclusions [of this report] are based on variables that will undoubtedly change with technological advancements and innovation within the industry.”

Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack similarly criticized the report in an interview with Reuters. He said, "The study overlooks many of our recent efforts, including new investments in research and technologies to develop non-food feedstocks.”

Visit any modern day ethanol plant and you will find that today's ethanol industry is an innovative, entrepreneurial, high-tech industry that is uniquely positioned to help America achieve energy independence.

American ethanol innovators are fueling our nation’s energy future, and they will continue to move forward, toward energy independence. There is no reason to believe that these innovations will stop anytime in the near future, and therefore, there is no reason to believe that the United States cannot – or will not – fulfill the requirements of the Renewable Fuel Standard.

The RFS creates the market certainty that is crucial to both first generation and second generation ethanol. Doubting or dismantling the RFS (as proposed today) would not just block our progress toward a viable cellulosic ethanol industry, but it will literally turn the clock back to the 1970s – and put OPEC further in control of our economy.

With consistent policy, infrastructure to deliver higher level blends of renewable fuel and a little time, we can create meaningful competition in the motor fuels market and support domestic renewable fuels that reduce our dependence on foreign oil.