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Ruminations on ROI and Solar PV

Erick Frazier
August 22, 2011  |  12 Comments

We hear a lot about ROI in our industry. People want to know what kind of return they can expect on their solar photovoltaic (PV) system, and understandably so. ROI is a tool, one of many, that helps to evaluate a potential investment and tells one piece of a broader story.  What I find interesting is where ROI is applied, and not applied. 

For example, I enjoy a tall black coffee on a daily basis from a well known coffee establishment. I’ve never once sat down to calculate the ROI for this investment because it would be a pretty poor outcome. Still, I continue to invest my money in this endeavor without another thought. Take automobiles, too. Here is something that we pay tens of thousands of dollars for and the second we drive it off the lot it has dropped in value, and we'll never see that original purchase price again. Not to mention the continued investment of fuel and upkeep.

“Yea but”, you say. Those investments have other less tangible returns. That tall black coffee probably boosts my productivity somehow bringing a return on that investment. And that car, that car makes me feel good and like I’ve accomplished something.

My goal in this article is to encourage people to consider the less tangible benefits that solar PV can provide and to apply a similar logic to this investment that we bring to most everything else in our lives that we invest our hard earned money in.

Protection: A Hedge Against Rising Energy Costs - There’s no debate that fuel prices are on the rise and there are some startling facts that coincide with this. China just surpassed the U.S. as the world’s largest consumer of fuel and India isn’t far behind. The days of cheap abundant fuel are becoming part of our history books and were only possible when the U.S. enjoyed unfettered dominance in the global arena both economically and technologically. There’s a lot more people sitting at the big boy table these days and each of them want what we have, understandably so.

Southwest airlines applied this logic back in 2007 when they made the critical decision to lock in jet fuel prices just before fuel prices sky rocketed. The other major airlines went into a tailspin trying to figure out how to avoid bankruptcy.

Predictable: Results You Can Bank On - The world of “third-party-owned systems” has brought an innovative business model that is literally a game changer for this industry. With significantly less upfront investment necessary, these systems are producing results that even the most ardent investor would jump on – instant ROI’s and zero out-of-pocket costs. It’s been interesting helping consumers understand this business model. With the third party owning the liability (equipment on the roof), the consumer enjoys the benefits of the asset (kWh’s generated by the system). When an inverter goes out or hail damage is reported, the third party is responsible for repair. If the system does not perform as expected, the third party guarantees production with a refund of kWh’s not met. This has simplified going solar immensely and spurned the growth of thousands of new solar roofs.

Re-sale: Increased Home Value - Thanks to Berkley Labs we finally have a legitimate study on the effects that solar PV has on home values. The study evaluated thousands of homes in California that sold, some with solar and some without, to determine if there was verifiable evidence to support the claim that solar PV adds to the value of your home. They concluded that as little as three kW can add $18,000 to the value of a home. The study landed at somewhere between $3.90 and $6.40 of value for every watt of solar. If people sold cars with all of the fuel costs covered for 20 years who wouldn’t pay a premium for that? That’s effectively what you are doing when you sell a home that has solar PV.

There are very few things in life that we apply ROI towards and demand the kind of results that many homeowners are asking for from solar PV. What other investment can you make that will literally save you thousands of dollars over the next 20 years? The upfront investment was a legitimate objection and the biggest hurdle for people wanting to manage their energy costs. With third-party ownership that excuse has been mitigated.

I’m not saying that solar is right for every home because your solar resource is still a major issue. Despite advances in solar modules we still can’t put them in the shade, on a North facing roof, or when there are major space constraints. There is also the unquestionably important role that local incentives have on this decision. What I am saying is that while ROI is an important tool, it doesn’t tell the whole story. The tide of solar PV is on the rise and I encourage you to jump in!

The information and views expressed in this blog post are solely those of the author and not necessarily those of RenewableEnergyWorld.com or the companies that advertise on this Web site and other publications. This blog was posted directly by the author and was not reviewed for accuracy, spelling or grammar.

12 Comments

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ANONYMOUS
March 19, 2012
The wholy grail of renewables is grid parity - which can be reached by either falling installation costs or rising energy prices.
And to properly judge this from the financial point of view one has to use ROI. The 'payback time' approach is neat, but it's hard to compare the payback time of a PV installation to that of a bank account. ROI on the other hand allows to compares the return of such totally different investments. ROI also allows various analysis, like impact of inflation, intuitive understanding of leverage, etc.
See the PV ROI calculator here, for example: http://mayer.pro/pvcalc
Mark Randall
Mark Randall
August 24, 2011
I have been trying to get people to use the ROI argument rather that the "payback" argument for years. No one asks what the payback is on a conventional water heater or a home that does not have energy efficiency and renewable energy features. In fact, the ROI on conventional systems is negative. The investment is the difference in the up-front cost of an "alternative" or choice. People generally don't think like investors investors; but when the impact of not making the incremental investment is negative, they should.

It has always amazed me how easily people choose to throw money away without a thought on cars (buy a used one instead of new; or (god help us!) a hybrid), incandescent bulbs, and the cheapest water heater they can find. But when you ask them to spend 3 bucks on a CFL they look at you like you're from Mars.
Gerry Wootton
Gerry Wootton
August 23, 2011
The author's take is not without merit. There's always something to be said about just doing the right thing as opposed to the cost of doing it. To do a meaningful ROI analysis requires a number of estimates of externalities that may be difficult to pin down. For instance, are utility rates going to increase at 6% per year or 6.5%? Doesn't sound like much but the difference is large over 20+ years. Based on past history, one can only trust government agencies to low-ball energy price predictions as this is the only politically acceptable data point. Or, is some cash hungry civil servant going to suddenly impose a production tax on the power produced (already considered)? However, it is still possible to do a respectable ROI. On the other hand, ROI analysis essentially implies a net zero cost of the alternative (except for the opportunity cost of capital) although, as suggested, the cost of doing nothing may be quite high. For example what's your personal the cost of inhaling the polution that is cogenerated with the kWh of power purchased by you that could have been avoided by investing in green power?
Some spurious asides have been concerned about the source of the equipment (i.e. China). Perhaps, an ROI analysis could go so far afield as to consider the cost impact on balance of trade (a virtually intractable number). Let's just say that international trade is a reality and be done with it. Or, consider the alternative: based on import data it seems that the majority of heavy equipment for coal fired generators is imported (much of it from ... well, you take a guess).
Anthony Rawson
Anthony Rawson
August 23, 2011
I was assuming the 3rd party system is where investors pay to put a system on your house, and you then pay them the retail rate for the electricity.
ANONYMOUS
August 23, 2011
Yes, ROI is a tool and a good one to determine if an investment is sound. As it concernes the predictability of results for the PV investment, I did not get it appropriately: as it is presented,the "third-party-owned-system" that generates money without investment seems to be a fairy tale. How could you expect to have a return on something you have not invested? The third party will use your roof and may be pay you for the rental of the space. Is that a return on your investment? will you receive part of the generated energy?
ANONYMOUS
August 23, 2011
John's remarks (comment #4) about outlandish 60c/kWh subsidies and rapid oscillations in funding should suggest that Government intervention into markets is bad policy. Nations such as Germany (where solar PV produced under 2% of electricity last year) have spent an enormous amount of money on FITs but these policies have done little to alter pricing as a function of time; their predominant effect was to increase production of modules when they had a highly inefficient price/performance metric. What little effect these policies did have on price was to increase it back when there were Silicon supply constraints and then to have prices plummet to slightly below the historical trend line after the silicon shortage was reversed and a glut of panels resulted. This government-induced boom and bust cycle has not been good for the industry. Direct R&D funding would have accelerated the technology at least as much for a fraction of the cost of production subsidies.
Steven
Jude Lasserre
Jude Lasserre
August 23, 2011
A balanced equation is required. Taking into consideration priorities. Of course, if we had built our homes for DC lighting in total and tiered remaining loads, we would be far ahead of the retro-fit snafu.
The EU does more for its small business's offering solar and alternate energy. The US is stuck in the thousand page "help".
No business can survive with our governments help and grants.
Since to obtain a grant or a rebate for green energy requires the tax system, we will never reach a place where homeowners will give big to get little.
And they tax us already without helping the suppliers in the sun.
The best we can hope for in the next few years is asian throw away panels since our American tax structure takes all incentives away from the American.
Bman Bman
Bman Bman
August 23, 2011
Smart buyers prefer to calculate ROI and LCOE for themselves. If vendors are being cagey about their prices, maybe they're embarrassed about how much they're charging.
John Giannasca
John Giannasca
August 23, 2011
They say that if you spend more than $300 on a watch, its not a watch any more, its a piece if jewelry. They say that if you spend more than $40,000 on a car, its not a car any more its a lifestyle statement.
Sure their may be lots of reason why people buy or should buy solar but in the end the responsibility to provide a renewable energy power supply rests with the government. We can do our bit but with the constant and competing demand for our disposable income but it will be a hard sell. In Australia we have the option of paying a little more on our power bill to increase the renewable component of the power we buy. Many to their credit opt for this. This at least pools funds to give a bigger hit. We have a large uptake in rooftop PV but this has been a miss handled affair. We have had 60c/kWh gross feed in tariffs which cut the payback on a 1500W system to 2 years. Suppliers couldn't keep up the demand. When the government extracted all the votes it needed it cut it back to 20c net. Voter backlash. Change the rules again. The poor supplier and customer have no confidence making decisions due the changing policy settings. Buy the way during the 60c rush 'Dodgy Bros $ Co' set up shop with faulty installations that is costing billions in rework with the scaremongers prediction of fire hazards. What this boils down to is proper planned progress with the government taking an active role to incentivise uptake and provide the supply chain with long term confidence. Is that too much to ask Mrs. Prime Minister...
Anthony Rawson
Anthony Rawson
August 23, 2011
The fact is that depending on one's energy usage and location, PV is already in the realm of reasonable ROI. Much like I did when it came to buying a large flat screen TV several years ago, I'm about ready to make the plunge but every day I continue to wait and weigh my options and costs the numbers only get better and better.
ANONYMOUS
August 22, 2011
When people start telling you to ignore financial considerations and "jump in" it is almost always time to walk away. The solar sellers also like to emphasize binary choices--either buy now or use fossil fuels for another 30 years. I suggest everyone add one additional calculation to their decision making processes: will the cost of a solar installation decline in the next year by more than you will save in electricity costs during that year? With PV prices dropping at a rapid rate I think the answer to this is in most cases yes. Thus, waiting is the low cost strategy. Of course those that have spare money to fritter away need not worry about such considerations, they can just "jump in" and get soaked.
Steven
Thomas M
Thomas M
August 22, 2011
Not to mention all the up front cost dealing with permitting and time filling out forms, oversized systems to meet requirements, possible restructing or removal of current incentives, changes in gov. and state policies over the life of the system, actual homeowner use and abuse of energy, power company changes, etc. etc.
Choosing and installing systems sized appropriately for the individuals needs that will guarantee or at least cover a majority of the users current cost, along with education on conserving and reducing power consumption, should be the first step to ensure a decent ROI that eventually leads to energy independence, should be the goal. Relying on gov. schemes that cost every tax payer should be examined. I think we all know that gov. is not out to give us money and their laws and regulations are mostly instilled to benefit themselves in the long run at the public's expense.

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Erick Frazier

Erick Frazier

Erick's interest in renewable energy began during the two years he lived and studied in China. It was there that he realized that the United States as a country MUST reinvent its approach to energy consumption, production and delivery....
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