Some Tough Questions on Our Clean Energy Future

I’ve observed that most readers here have a very solid grasp on the world’s current energy scene. You know that here in the US, almost 49% of our electricity comes from coal, and the penetration of renewables is under 2%. Taking the entire globe into consideration, you’re aware that somewhere between 80% and 90% of all energy comes from burning hydrocarbons, whether that’s oil, coal, gas, or, in some cases, just slashing and burning plants for heat, cooking, etc.

A more interesting question, of course, is not where are we now, but where we are going.

But there are huge problems associated with answering that question, as there are complications coming at us from a number of different directions. On the optimistic side, we have PV and wind prices falling, and several fantastically promising other technologies right on their heels. Some of the largest countries on Earth have developed what appears to be something of a race, perhaps primarily for PR purposes, as to who can make move the greenhouse gas needle back furthest and fastest. But it’s not all roses; we have a new majority in the US Senate that has aggressively begun to block all actions that would mitigate global climate change.

So what will happen? Here are a few questions we all need to ponder:

1) How much longer will fossil fuels last? Unconventional technologies (e.g., shale oil, tar sands, fracking, etc.) are becoming increasingly important, but there’s no free lunch here, as they themselves are resource-intensive, and come along with their own environmental consequences. Even the most glib oil industry spokespeople don't claim the supply will last forever.

2) Then let’s look at this from a legal and political perspective. Will our civilization continue to allow the energy industry to ignore the costs of its externalities -- the environmental damage, the increase in healthcare costs, etc? Might there come a time when our society demands that the industry stop passing its costs along to its current and future customers?

3) What exactly will happen when solar and wind reach and pass "grid parity" in a few years? By 2018 at the latest, the incremental cost of a megawatt of electricity from wind will cost less than the equivalent from coal. Won't that change the decision-making process? Are we to suppose that a utility will opt to buy another coal-fired power plant when that decision both damages the world and costs more?

4) Will voters wake up to the fact that the public sector in the US continues to have essentially zero forward thrust behind renewables? Right now, despite all the speeches, the US federal government grants huge subsidies that create artificially inexpensive oil. This, in turn, constitutes an all-out attack on clean energy. Might voters catch wind of this and demand a change?

5) I’m certainly not hoping for this, but it’s possible that we'll see some shocking world events: horrible famines, dramatic storms, huge changes in temperature, etc.  If any of these come to pass, won’t even the global warming deniers change their positions on the crisis that the world confronts?

6) And here’s one last issue I wonder about occasionally: who will be the big winners here? Renewable energy will happen; it’s just a matter of when. There are going to be some huge fortunes made as the $2 trillion clean energy industry makes its way into our lives.

A considerable list of questions, I’m sure you’ll agree. I hope readers will add some comments and help us get to a few answers.

-- Craig Shields is editor of 2GreenEnergy.com and author of Renewable Energy – Facts and Fantasies (published by Clean Energy Press, 2010)