Why I Believe in Thin Film
When most people think of solar energy, they see flat panels on a roof. They don't think about thin film. They don't see it. This is one of the many advantages of CIGS and other thin film solar technologies. So what if its efficiency is half that of a panel? It conforms to the shape of the place where it lays. Thin film can also be productized in ways no panel can. It can be turned into something retailers can sell or bloggers will drool over. Try doing that with a panel. With the exception of the 800-pound Gorilla First Solar, it's true that we're still measuring the annual supply from these manufacturers in megawatts, figures utility companies can't (and often don't want to) hear, except as window-dressing or a source of subsidies. But changing that equation is as simple as getting the right product into mass production. (Skeptics should listen again to the words of former DEC CEO Ken Olsen. "There is no reason for any individual to have a computer in his home.") Personally I think I've seen the future and it's thin. Copper indium gallium (di)selenide is also not the only possible formula for a thin film. Sharp is looking at amorphous silicon, despite Applied Materials' failure with it. Maybe they will succeed, and maybe they'll fail too. The search for new materials will go on. (Like the man told Dustin Hoffman in The Graduate, "One word. Plastics.") There is a ton of competition in this space. Analysts at Greentech Media recently wrote a list of just CIGS thin film companies for a story on one of them. Want to hear it? Solar Frontier, Qcells, Solyndra, SoloPower, MiaSolé, Wuerth Solar, Stion, GSP, Nanosolar. They can't all be wrong, can they? And is that an exhaustive list? Far from it. Venture capitalists are funding more all the time, often on the promise of greater efficiency. While analysts at Greentech Media are very positive about companies like AQT Solar that can get into production fast and cheap, or SoloPower, with its claims of UL Labs approval, it's clear to me that this is the first mile of a corporate marathon. Put it this way. How many PC makers from the late 1970s can you name? (Other than Apple.) In terms of this market, I don't even think we're at 1977 yet. There are just so many directions in which improvement can happen with thin films. Efficiency, production cost, durability, materials cost, etc. It's true that the total power being supplied by CIGS right now looks pathetic next to standard panels, but the advantages are just too obvious.
The way to look at this is not through the eyes of current production, or short-term profits. It's about the technologies behind the curtain, the new materials and techniques that can get that to market. A good venture capitalist will invest in 10 plays knowing only three will ever bring him any return, but in hopes that 1 of those three will be huge. That's the right attitude to have. What does it mean when every roof, every wall, every tent and bleach blanket can be delivering solar power to its owner? Remember, electronics and many electrical devices are requiring less-and-less power every year. More to the point, what does it mean to an industry that depends on long-term contracts for construction of panel systems if the wall can deliver just as much power for the cost of wallpapering? Or painting? That's a silly question today, but one that the people in this business should probably start thinking about. The information and views expressed in this blog post are solely those of the author and not necessarily those of RenewableEnergyWorld.com or the companies that advertise on this Web site and other publications. This blog was posted directly by the author and was not reviewed for accuracy, spelling or grammar.
26 Reader Comments
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Dana Blankenhorn
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If thin film could be really cheap, it could replace siding, and (even more exotic) be a roadway surface (yes, someone is trying for this already).
Things like digital thermometers might be able to be built for cheaper than the cost of a battery... maybe not yet, but it is so close. Or a phone holster that captures solar energy and reduces the phone's need to be recharged.