Startling New Research on Peak Oil and Its Implications for Renewables

No one could have expected the content of a study, issued earlier this month from Dr. Ibrahim Nashawi of Kuwait University, in which he and his colleagues suggest that world conventional crude oil will peak as early as 2014 -- a decade or more earlier than other parties have estimated. These findings were published in the magazine Energy & Fuels, published by the American Chemical Society.

 "Peak Oil" refers to the point in time at which global production has reached its maximum and will start to decline -- thus creating an even more severe pinch on gasoline and diesel supply.  For years, there has been considerable debate about the subject, which is more than understandable since:

1) Though there is ample evidence that most of the world’s large oil fields have become significantly depleted, the exact data here is not fully transparent.

2) There is debate as to the exact source of oil. How much is truly a fossil fuel -- and how much was formed abiotically, soon after the formation of the Earth itself? No one really knows -- yet this is an important concept, as it is possible that there are significant oil reserves -- at far greater depths under the surface of the Earth.

3) New technologies make possible oil explorations in regions of the world in which it would have been unheard of a few decades ago. Note, however, that I used the word "possible," rather than "economically or ecologically feasible." The cost in terms of dollars and environmentally precious resources to get at tar sands and oil shale is considerable -- and render their existence moot, unless oil processes skyrocket.

4) The rate at which we’re consuming oil is increasing. The number of cars on the road worldwide will double by 2030  – yes, that’s double -- in the next 20 years.

In my mind, the exact – even approximate -- date of Peak Oil is moot. The oil companies and their propagandists are the only ones trying to convince us that oil consumption isn’t a huge problem for our entire civilization – and for a great number of different and independent reasons: national security, fiscal responsibility and the public debt, health, and ecology.

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