Prediction: Clean Energy Will Arrive -- But Not for the Right Reasons

Saddam Hussein was a brutal dictator, and he was removed from power, but only because he happened to become the target of G.W. Bush. In a fit of hubris of historic proportions, Bush focused essentially the entire strength of the US intelligence and military might on the task, but, in doing so, the real threat to world peace and our national security that was developing next door in Afghanistan and Pakistan went unnoticed.

My point is not to demonstrate my prowess as Monday morning quarterback, but to point out that the major trends in world commerce and politics generally do not happen for the right reasons. Such trends are manufactured by a few extremely powerful people; they are most assuredly not the result of market forces, corporate strategists, or world leaders acting on behalf of our 6.8 billion people -- most of whose condition in terms of finance, health, and safety is rapidly declining.

Having said this, as I write frequently at 2GreenEnergy, I remain quite optimistic about the migration to renewable energy -- even if it will happen for reasons that are completely independent of the health and safety of the world's people.

One thing I've resolved to do in 2010 is to make predictions about the future of the move away from fossil fuels. So here goes: I believe that the move to clean energy will be far faster than anyone predicts, based on the following factors:

Peak Oil. I forecast that there will clear and terrifying indications sometime in the early part of this decade that we've been lied to about the size (not to mention security) of the world oil reserves. In particular, we will soon have indisputable data showing the failure of certain large oil fields.

Public Outcry. As much as I hate the hatchet job reporting of organizations like CBS News' 60 Minutes, they do a good job in rallying middle-America into anger -- and action. Their recent piece on coal ash was one such piece -- completely unfair reporting, but at least they were on the right side of the issue. I predict that many similar stories are soon to break into the public conscience on the subject.

Corporate Embrace of Renewables. Industrial giants like GE, Siemens -- as well as oil companies like ExxonMobil and Chevron have taken a "if you can't beat 'em, join 'em" approach and are starting to make significant investments in clean energy technology. This will be a signal to others to jump on the bandwagon.

Smart Grid. Our aging electrical grid needs to be upgraded, regardless of the imperatives driven by the advent of clean energy. This upgrade will facilitate the penetration rate of renewables. Currently, clean energy represents only about 2% of total energy consumption in the US; 48%+ comes from coal. One of the gating factors to increased penetration is real-time integration of power from fluctuating sources, e.g., wind -- and this challenge is greatly ameliorated with smart grid technology.

Increases in Efficiency. The more mature clean energy technologies, e.g., photovoltaics and wind, are seeing refinements that boost their efficiencies -- especially on a Watts-per-dollar basis.

Maturation of New Technologies. Solar thermal is a good example of a technology that has the potential to lead the world completely and permanently from its addiction to oil and coal. But this is fairly recent in development, and lags the PV and wind by a couple of decades.

Again, I think most of us would like to believe that there is a benign power at work in our political and/or financial world that exerts a force toward the benefit of mankind.  Sorry, I don't see it.  But I foretell clean energy in our future nonetheless. 

Well, there you go -- a bold prediction for the New Year. As always, I welcome your comments.