U.S. Solar Industry: Changing of the Old Guard

Great food for thought, Stephen. Both BP and GE have the capital to have stayed in it for the long haul, but what concerns me is their lack of vision for the future. Rather than investing more dollars in bringing costs down through more R&D, they've abandoned solar...or abandoned U.S. facilities for cheaper labor abroad. Sadly for them, the solar market is only going to grow, but they can't justify the costs to their short term thinking Board of Trustees, I guess.

This short term thinking is a general problem right now with our society and perhaps solar as well. It's why solar is still a tough sell, even if installers can show the ROI over 25 years. Our society wants payback NOW, or so investors and consumers demand. Solar leases and solar PPAs can do that payback now for the consumers to some extent, but long term, the ROI is far greater to buy your system.

It's my hope that the solar companies that do survive this recession will be the ones with long term vision. Eventually, the solar boom is going to happen, but it won't last forever. That's the nature of things, but if the survivors are long term thinkers, then they will be prepared and still grow marginally through the inevitable bust as well.

Thanks, Solar Fred. Personally, I have no problem if some of these companies abandon solar and leave it to the companies that will give it the attention it deserves. Solar can no longer be a science experiment....

A company like GE does have a long-term vision in my opinion -- it's just not necessarily in solar. They've done great things with the Ecomagination program, and it's inspired a lot of other companies to take meaningful action. Just like solar isn't the best technology for every application, solar just isn't right for certain companies.

GE (and BP) is just "too big" and solar industry is too dynamic for them right now, although with due respect even the smaller pureplay US based solar companies (like SunPower and Evergreen) are basically outsourcing panel manufacturing. GE has decided to stand back for a few years until things settle down.
The funny thing is GE (or BP) will probably end up buying a company like SunPower in 5 years when it is worth 15 times as much as it is now, but the US solar market is 20-30 times as big.
disdaniel
http://time-is-energy.blogspot.com/

We do not know the Board Room dynamics that favored the closure of the GE Solar set up. But it is better that these decisions by individual companies be left out of the judgmental loop.They are made in accordance with their circumstances,. What should be of real concern to the RE community should be the overall growth, stagnancy or reversal in the field.Measured against that yardstick, we are witnessing healthy trends.

Hello from NE Wisconsin:

I had been a small wind turbine dealer for 12 years, promoting the Jacobs wind turbine. It has gone up from less then $19,000 to more then $58,000 for a 20 kw system. A solar system of 5 kw to 7 kw that has a single tracking system costs how much? Then, how much power will it produce yearly? Certainly, less power will be produced in Wisconsin verses Nevada. And, the same goes for a wind machine--siting is critical.

When I was set up at a county fair, home and garden show, farm show, renewable energy fair and so on, I was asked a barrage of questions--normally they were all the same. All these questions had to do with economics; they all had to do with return on investment. Too bad that the public didn't buy these wind machines when they were less then $19,000. I suppose that it's the same with solar.

Here in Wisconsin, if I was interested in solar, I wouldn't put them on my roof. Roof maintenance is critical for the long term care of shingles, ceiling joists and trusses. And, we care for shading of our houses by growing trees in and around the house. Most city lots do not have the luxury of space to install a solar tracker of 5 kw to 7 kw and if they did, trees, houses, fences and other obstacles would hinder the solar panel array.

As I see it, selling solar panels will be an up hill battle. One last thing, the solar dealer like the wind turbine dealer doesn't have to sell their products to everyone--just enough though to make a living at it. Unfortunately, it isn't enough to sustain the market in residental sales--at least not here

Doug Johnson

Hi Doug:

A lot of practical good points you bring up.
Solar will really not be able to proliferate to the levels it needs to until the residential house (the defacto design) is planned from the start with it in mind. For all the reasons you mention and more, it can be very difficult to "fit it" to a house. Sure you have installs here and there, but not widespread. There is allot of retro where it does not fly, particularly when you go after systems big enough to take at least a 50% chunk out of the "total" heating loads, DHW included.
In fact I would say that allot of the spec home designs of the last 30 years have promoted convoluted roof designs with as many intersections and multi levels that they can possibly fit into as many square feet. Basically trying to achieve architectural beauty through complexity rather than simplicity. This is a nightmare for large solar systems desiring roof installation. Additionally, until houses, etc.. are sited as a norm to benefit from solar heating and cooling, rather than being automatically aligned to the nearest road in the development, the movement will not mainstream...

.....Bill

Do not understand, short term economics aside, why a large company such as GE would invested in cadmium telleride carcinogenic panels. I know supposedly disposal is planned however why throw a potent cancer causer into the environment in the first place. I guess it will help keep the cancer wards full and the hazmat teams employed.
It's always about the amount of profit isn't it? Enough is never enough.

China has been dumping. No offense intended, but that's not a sign of the market maturing. Putting competition out of business via dumping is a sign of the market going to the dogs.

You also have a European market that now see the US as their future... those European feed-in-tariffs are funding their trade practices as they compete against companies here that don't have such government funded financial advantages. That's fair? That's a "cleansing effect"?!

I don't think so.

Every time this has happened in the past to this level tariffs against such practices have been deployed (and appropriately so) to level the playing field and make it fair (and punish foreign governments that are subsidizing native production to put their foreign competitors out of business).

Our nation's current leadership has refused to even consider tariffs in hopes that by placating this kind of activity China will snuggle up to us some more. They are our banker ... 9 trillion in debts over the next 10 years. They are worried about us because of our economy. They're lecturing Obama over there right now about their fears as our #1 investor ... they hold the reigns to our future ... reigns that we gave them over the last 10-20 years especially and now we're doing they're bidding by looking the other way as they pummel our companies that are just as efficient as theirs ... only less government-funded.

Right now Pres. Obama is bowing halfway to the toes to China's leaders (a first for US Presidents), calling himself "The 1st Pacific President" (not President of the United States) to show where he wants them to think his loyalties lie. It's also what's happening regarding solar ... the administration doesn't care about homeland solar manufacturing.

Protectionism? Why isn't anyone talking about the way the Chinese government protects their own developing manufacturers? You actually think they're making a profit? And are we powerless to put up a legal fight because they ..what? Own us? And is the environment so important that we'll look the other way as this atrocity occurs just so we can get cheaper panels in the near term?

I don't know. That's why I put these in the form of questions ... but I'm not afraid of the questions ... and it seems all to many people are because they're even more afraid what the answers might be. But what I do know is that what is happening is not "a cleansing effect".

"you have a cleansing effect" does not ring true, not even remotely. Not when you follow the money: our debt mostly ... and the level of local manufacturing skill and expertise vs foreign skill & expertise and you see how certain foreign companies are represented at the SPI expo with great presence, great prices, and no customers, while GE and others are either minimal or non-existent. Last I checked many of these unheard of foreign corporations didn't evolve competitively out a bastion of capitalistic enterprise.

We're being played, and we're losing.

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