Solar Industry Emerging from the Darkness

Last year at this time, the solar industry was staring into the abyss, uncertain about how disastrous 2009 would be. As it turned out, this year did not bring the apocalypse, and today we have a clear (but somewhat cluttered) path ahead of us.

After meeting with more than 30 solar executives at the Solar Power International conference, we came away with a positive view of the prospects for the industry in 2010. Sure, executives are paid to be upbeat and sell their company — but we believe that much of the optimism is warranted. Companies are getting new orders, capital is flowing back into the space, workers are getting re-hired and some businesses have re-structured themselves to meet current market challenges.

This year, we may see around 350-400 MW of solar PV installations in the U.S. We'll probably see another 150,000-200,000 square meters of solar thermal collectors, and around 5 MW of CSP. That's just above last year's overall installations. Even though we won't see major growth like in previous years, the industry has held up well, considering the circumstances.

It took the greatest economic crisis in 80 years just to slow the growth of the solar industry. It's exciting to imagine what will happen next year when the credit markets are healthier, consumers have more purchasing power and we finally have a carbon-weighted policy in place.

Our quick take: We are finally emerging from the darkness that descended upon us 12 months ago.