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Why Thin-Film CIGS Solar Cells Are Poised for Big Growth

By Greg Howard
January 7, 2008   |   39 Comments

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39 Reader Comments
Comment
1 of 39
January 7, 2008
<p>&nbsp; While the thin films may offer the lowest $/W at the module level, the total installed cost, is what most customers really care about.</p><p>&nbsp; Solar &amp; Thermal Systems bi-panels collect &gt;31m^2 of sunlight (320 sq ft active) per unit, and install in a fraction of the time of PV modules, resulting in greatly reduced installation costs.</p><p>&nbsp; Since tha panels are solar concentrators the systems are readily adaptable to CHP applications, either for direct building heat, or absorption chillers.</p><p>&nbsp; Visit http://www.solarandthermal.com/ for more information.</p>
Comment
2 of 39
January 8, 2008
I was wondering the same thing as Bart, but then I found this pdf
www.indium.com/_dynamo/download.php?docid=552
<i>The abundance of indium in the earth's crust is estimated to be 0.05 ppm for the continental and 0.072 ppm for the oceanic crust, respectively. This concentration is higher than the concentration of silver. Consider that silver is now produced at a rate of 20,000 tons per year compared to approximately 400 tons per year for indium. Silver is not perceived to be in short supply. These observations would suggest that indium could enjoy virtually infinite growth in use without supply limitations.</i>
Comment
3 of 39
January 8, 2008
<span style="font-size: 7.5pt; font-family: Verdana">Indium is a byproduct of refining Zinc. Indium production is dependent on Zinc mining and refining. Zinc is an abundant material found all over the world. That said, some areas of Zinc mining have greater amounts of In than others, e.g. China and Canada. Indium has been on a downward price trend based on supply and demand. Thin film thickness of In or ITO can be very thin, from angstroms to microns. A little bit goes a very long way, one of the reasons it&nbsp;cost less than Silicon based solar cell manufacturing. You could also make the argument that all we need to do is mine more Zinc to get more Indium.</span>
Comment
4 of 39
January 8, 2008
I hear that Indium is in short supply. There is just not that much of it in the ground. Given that, is CIGS really a good way to go instread of silicon? After all we will never run out of silicon, we just need more foundaries.
Comment
5 of 39
January 9, 2008
The Dino killer that landed on the eastern shore of central America brought Iridium.
Comment
6 of 39
January 9, 2008
<p>I just;</p><p><a href="http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&amp;q=asteroid+indium" target="_blank">http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&amp;q=asteroid+indium</a></p><p>and it's quite a page! I think the indium here came from the dino-killer...</p><p>then I read something about carbon sheets...<br /><a href="http://www.tgdaily.com/content/view/35379/113/" target="_blank">http://www.tgdaily.com/content/view/35379/113/</a></p><p><br />According to Linjie Zhi of the Max Planck Institute, &quot;It is very stable in the face of heat and acidic conditions, which makes fabrication much easier.&quot;&nbsp; Some problems remain, however...&quot;&nbsp;&quot;... Their goal is to get a single atomic layer of graphene.&nbsp; If they could achieve that, they'd have a nearly 100% transparent material, one which is completely suitable for replacing indium.</p>
Comment
7 of 39
January 9, 2008
<p>That's funny, I was just thinking about &quot;what&nbsp;if the asteroids contained indium&quot; when writing earlier... I read a book called &quot;Mining the Sky&quot; by John S. Lewis and he lists &quot;...platinum group...&quot;. Ya, every element is within the grasp of robotic asteroid mining. He says that just one&nbsp;2 km wide&nbsp;M class asteroid would bring in about 20 trillion dollars (and pay for the quadrillions needed at todays space costs)!</p><p>But what needs heavy subsidizing is ALL aspects of RE, if only as much as the fossils... so that humanity COULD actually mine the asteroid that will one day slam into us</p>
Comment
8 of 39
January 9, 2008
<p>Any discussion of &quot;long term&quot; supplies of Indium&nbsp;should&nbsp;also recognize reserves off-planet in the asteroids and elsewhere, unless we define&nbsp;&quot;long tem&quot;&nbsp;as less than a decade.&nbsp; </p><p>This tiny little dirtball we live on today&nbsp;is&nbsp;not now and can never be&nbsp;our only source of raw materials and energy.</p><p>If&nbsp;CIGS cells are a good and economical solution&nbsp;for some&nbsp;of the&nbsp;energy demand on Earth, and maybe&nbsp;for solar&nbsp;power satellites orbiting&nbsp;Earth,&nbsp;people can find&nbsp;ways to&nbsp;obtain more access to more Indium on or off Earth.&nbsp;&nbsp; </p>
Comment
9 of 39
January 9, 2008
There definitely will be no indium or gallium available as soon as CIGS reaches $3/watt installed, with a good lifespan. At that figure they can compete directly with the grid, and the demand will explode. The Governator's &quot;million solar rooftops&quot; will be only a drop in the bucket. There is no way that the materials will be available to meet the demand.
Comment
10 of 39
January 9, 2008
<span style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: Verdana">CIGS based solar cells (with several ways to make) is just one type of solar cell that is part of a larger energy production product market landscape. My point is that several technologies will successfully co-exist in the market for some time. Right now, based on the economies of scale that the PVD glass coating industry has proven, in my opinion CIGS PVD cells will have a cost advantage for as long as the raw materials are economically viable. </span>
Comment
11 of 39
January 9, 2008
<span style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: Verdana"><span style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: Verdana">I think that there will be many successful approaches in producing usable, deployable solar cells. CIGS is just one type with several methods of manufacturing. There is no reason to believe Si based solar cells will disappear, the market is just too large for the foreseeable future.&nbsp; If Indium becomes so scarce sometime in the next 100 years that it is not feasible to manufacturer CIGS based cells, I believe other technologies, including thin film, will fill the void. </span></span>
Comment
12 of 39
January 9, 2008
<span style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: Verdana">Bart,</span> <p><span style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: Verdana">Do you have a link to the article you quoted, it looks interesting. It is the first I have heard of having only a 10 year supply of Indium left in the world. It is true that ITO is used in LCDs and plasma screens as the TCO. There are replacements for ITO as a TCO such as AZO (Alumina doped ZnO). I understand that there is a difference in character between the two films. AZO may be a suitable ITO replacement for TCOs. This may lighten demand by that sector if supply is significantly constricted in the future. </span></p>
Comment
13 of 39
January 9, 2008
<p>It is encouraging that the thin film people have realised that dollars per watt delivered is more important than watts per square metre.</p><p>When they can coat solar cells onto long run roofing this technology will sweep the world.&nbsp; The combined savings of not having to put conventional roofing on your house before putting the panels on top and the likelyhood that the solar panels will be cheaper than conventional solar panels (per watt delivered) will suddenly make the whole exercise worthwhile.&nbsp; I doubt if any new house will be ever built again with roofing that is not a solar panel as well.&nbsp;</p><p>&nbsp;</p>
Comment
14 of 39
January 9, 2008
<p>The article I saw said this:</p><p><strong> It is estimated that there is only a 10 years supply of indium left on the entire planet.&nbsp; Indium is a crucial resource in creating solar cells, LCD and other devices which must have transparent electrodes to carry out their function.&nbsp; However, a new discovery related to single atomic layer sheets of carbon (graphene) could prove to be a better replacement, according to researchers at the Max Planck Institute for Polymer Research in Germany.</strong> </p><p>&nbsp;Graphene will not help GIGS cells where the electronic nature of In is needed, but from the above comments, maybe the &quot;estimate&quot; given is wrong?</p><p>Side note: The &quot;sliver cell&quot; is a single crystal silicon cell uses 10% of the silicon of regular cells, but still gets 18% efficiency. CIGS is currently around 15% I have heard.</p>
Comment
15 of 39
January 9, 2008
what is the W/sf of thes future panels, that's what I want to know please?&nbsp; In my opinion, hte price is great but for rooftops, it's going to be about energy density...
Comment
16 of 39
January 9, 2008
<p>2,600 metric tons of indium worldwide researve, 5,700 for &quot;researve base&quot;, from<br /><a href="http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/indium/indiumcs96.pdf" target="_blank">http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/indium/indiumcs96.pdf</a><br />that was in 1996, the same deal shows 2,800 and 6,000 respectively during 07<br /><a href="http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/indium/indiumcs07.pdf" target="_blank">http://minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/indium/indiumcs07.pdf</a><br />The USGS also says that it is about three time more abundant than silver. But it is definately dependent on zinc, that production oversees is rising and thus feedstocks are being reduced...<br />We'd be lucky to get a thousand sq miles of solar fields out of this one (at one millionth of a meter thick).</p><p>fireofenergy</p>
Comment
17 of 39
January 9, 2008
<p>I (kinda) know the efficiency of my little 3.5 - 5 volt 50 - 90 mA &quot;cells&quot;. I've seen them on the web labeled as &quot;copper indium...&quot; also.</p><p>&nbsp;55 x 56 mm of CIGS material inbedded in glass puts out about 90 mA at 4.72 volts during winter at 2:30 with perfectly clear, 6,500 ft altitude.<br />If sunlight = 1,000 watts per square meter, what is the efficiency of mine? I did some math and came to the conclusion of 13.8%. This is in &quot;perfect&quot; sunlight conditions of &quot;clear winter at 6,700 feet altitude&nbsp;at Big Bear, CA&quot;. Got to be close enough for a conservative estimate...</p><p>&nbsp;The reason I said kinda is because each cell puts out a different reading, some as low as only 3 volts and 40 mA, but most are of the above.</p>
Comment
18 of 39
January 9, 2008
<span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Verdana">Russell,</span> <p><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Verdana">I agree, very little is said about cell efficiency, emphasis has been placed on cost/W. This is likely an indication the cell efficiencies are low. I believe the world record CIGS cell is 19.4% efficient, perhaps no where near what will be produced in early production. I don't believe Nanosolar has published cell efficiency as of&nbsp;yet. </span></p>
Comment
19 of 39
January 9, 2008
<span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Verdana">Bill,</span> <p style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt" class="MsoNormal"><span style="font-size: 11pt; font-family: Verdana">You are right, I was unaware that Solyndra was using a solution-based plating technology. This is a significant 4th method to manufacture CIGS solar cells. I am curious what Solyndra projects their cost structure to be. </span></p>
Comment
20 of 39
January 9, 2008
<span style="font-family: Verdana"><font size="3">I believe the largest use of indium in PVD is in the production of ITO (Indium Tin Oxide) used to make transparent conductive oxide coatings. The largest consumption of ITO is in the flat panel display and plasma screen industry. Some companies may consume&nbsp; up to 2 tons of ITO (90/10) per month during heavy production months. The price of&nbsp;Indium is by in large the balance of&nbsp;demand and&nbsp;Zinc refining production. The price of&nbsp;Indium has been very erratic over the past 10 years,&nbsp;we bought a lot at $87/Kg 8 years ago where as today the price&nbsp;ranges from&nbsp;the mid $500s to mid $600s.&nbsp;&nbsp;</font></span>
Comment
21 of 39
January 9, 2008
You left out the plated methods of depositing CIGS and other thin films.&nbsp;Solyndra is a company in Fremont, CA that has gone forward using these techniques instead of vacuum methods like sputtering.&nbsp; Vijay Kapur (ISET) at ARCO Solar plated CIGS cells in the early 1970's and it works well.&nbsp;
Comment
22 of 39
January 9, 2008
I have been reading about CIGS solar cells for some time but there is very little said about their efficiency. Just how efficient are they. Nanosolar says nothing about their cell efficiency other than that it is competitive with silicon.
Comment
23 of 39
January 9, 2008
<p>Interesting,</p><p>When I research indium, no doubt the potential is there with adequate supplies, but not at current time as there are just not enough companies mining for it.&nbsp; Yes, it is a byproduct of zinc mining, so the only suppliers will be zinc mining companies, so this narrows the supply line significantly.&nbsp; </p><p>Given the huge investment and envirnmental impact studies required to even start mining in most areas these days, I don't think indium is the answer for decades.&nbsp; This is the typical scenario of being caught in between a rock and a hardplace, or what comes first, the mining or the demand.&nbsp; When solar comapanies are faced with their decision to move into manufacturing, they have to have supplies to support it, and mining will not expend time and money without demand, so I just don't see indium as the answer, no matter how cost effective it is, it will take decades to bring it to market in my opinion.</p><p>Low-Cost-WiFi.com</p><p>&nbsp;</p>
Comment
24 of 39
January 10, 2008
<p>About solar shingles: The problem is shadows. If one cell is shadowed the entire cell sting shuts down. Current cannot get through the shadowed cell. Bypass dides allow the string to continue to operate, at lower voltage. With several strings in parallel (my home has 4) to operate at peak power you reduce the voltage on ALL the strings just because one string has one cell in shadow. A chimney, power pole, or tree casting a shadow across the entire array effecively shuts&nbsp; it all down. You have to pick just that part of the roof that sees few shadows for the panels. This lets out the option of just covering the entire roof with solar shingles.</p><p>&nbsp;We would need something else as well, like many&nbsp; DC to DC converters scattered throughout the array, which ups the cost. </p>
Comment
25 of 39
January 10, 2008
<p>Here are 2:</p><p>http://www.tgdaily.com/content/view/35379/113/</p><p>http://www.dailytech.com/New+Material+Promises+to+Save+LCD+Solar+Power+Industry/article10143.htm</p><p>However, neither give their source.</p><p>&nbsp;</p>
Comment
26 of 39
January 10, 2008
<p>As hinted at by Eugene, there will be big structural impacts on the industry as well. For example, right now professional installers have the installation end of the consumer value chain sewn up. Some of this is due to the inherent need for electrical skills, but most is due to the size and sheer weight of solar panels, and the complexity of the balance of system. And yes, at some point every new home and residential building will have solar cells installed upon construction. But with the CIGS revolution, the whole DIY market for existing homes opens up in a dramatic way -- particularly as the movement to more modular and pre-engineered balance of system components gains momentum. (<a href="http://www.diygreenenergy.com/" target="_blank">www.diygreenenergy.com</a>)</p>
Comment
27 of 39
January 10, 2008
<p>While there has always been speculation about whether there is enough Indium and other uniformity issues surrounding the manufacture of the CIGS cell, I don't see discussion here about the packaging problems around non glass applications of the technnology. With CIGS being 100% moisture intolerant, there is material sciences issue to solve before there can be a 20 year warranty for this promising technology. </p>
Comment
28 of 39
January 10, 2008
<p>Does anyone know what the highest operating temperature is for these thin film cells?&nbsp; If a cell could operate at higher temperatures than silicon cells, this would open the possibility of developing combination electrical and thermal hybrid systems.&nbsp; It would be great if we could find a way to use the 80% or more of the solar energy that is not used in photovoltaics.</p>
Comment
29 of 39
January 11, 2008
Surly this problem of a shadow greatly reducing the output of a solar array can be solved (or has it been already).&nbsp; Can anyone with engineering knowledge in the field comment on this.
Comment
30 of 39
January 11, 2008
<span style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: Verdana">I think the opportunity for vertically focused equipment retailers and home improvement stores is too large to ignore. Cell manufacturers that create or partner with those that create these home install kits may even make higher margins on cells because of the perceived lower total cost of implementing solar energy. When supply is constricted and demand high, someone always gets the margin. In this example the home owner would get the cost benefit by taking on the labor and risk of implementing the solution themselves. </span>
Comment
31 of 39
January 11, 2008
<span style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: Verdana">Alfred,</span> <p><span style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: Verdana">You bring up an excellent point. If demand for solar cell (of all types) continues to be steep for the foreseeable future, I agree that prices will likely stay high in the market's current iteration. If there are new products (or product categories), such as those pointed out by Wayne Floyd, that target consumers directly (or the home improver), cost dynamics for consumers can change. Home owners that install their own solar panel solution will likely save a lot from a do-it-yourself solar power home improvement kit. While this is speculation, it will likely happen, assuredly so if the likes of Home Depot and Lowe&rsquo;s start to carry such products. </span></p>
Comment
32 of 39
January 11, 2008
The price we pay for PV is not determined by cost to manufacturer. The price we pay is a function of supply versus demand. For the forseeable future, demand will far outstrip supply, so prices will not drop, no matter how cheap they can be manufactured.
Comment
33 of 39
January 11, 2008
I am curious about the expected life of the CIGS thin film products and the projected degredation of the cell per year.
Comment
34 of 39
January 11, 2008
<p><span style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: Verdana">1. Which is a efficient technology amongst Plasma vapor deposition or Screen printing (Nanosolar, ISET, etc)?</span></p><p><span style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: Verdana">To date Nanosolar has not yet announced or discussed cell efficiency (at least I am not aware of it). Rumor/speculation has been that it&nbsp;is low. &nbsp;PVD CIGS cell developers are also not yet discussing efficiency. I think that we will hear announcements of cell efficiency as both screen printing and PVD companies are pressured to do so.</span></p><p><span style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: Verdana">2. Will efficiency have direct impact if Steel/Al foils are used instead of glass?</span> </p><p><span style="font-size: 10pt; font-family: Verdana">This is a question best answered by the thin film cell manufacturers themselves. I wish they would pipe in and give their feedback. </span></p>
Comment
35 of 39
January 11, 2008
<p>I am fully convinced on CIGS cells offering cost-effective solutions in long-term. Indium shortage is not an issue at all. Its too long to think of it.</p><p>Can you provide me more insight on the following 2 aspects:</p><p>1. Whcih is a efficient technology amongst Plasma vapor deposition or Screen printing (Nanosolar, ISET, etc)?</p><p>2. Will efficieny have direct impact if Steel/Al foils are used instead of glass?</p><p>&nbsp;</p><p>Jaideep Malaviya (Jai)</p><p>info@malaviya.in</p>
Comment
36 of 39
January 12, 2008
<p style="margin: 0in 0in 0pt" class="MsoNormal"><font face="Times New Roman" size="3">While CIGS companies like Ascent Solar represent one important aspect of our thin-film solar future, don&rsquo;t forget that we can get the economies of thin film AND the abundance and non-toxicity of silicon with amorphous silicon thin film solar products available now in commercial quantities from Energy Conversion Devices and others.</font></p>
Comment
37 of 39
January 12, 2008
<p><span>Robert Bernal</span><span> stated: &quot;</span>We'd be lucky to get a thousand sq miles of solar fields&quot;. Using 2 square meters as a benchmark panel size, 1,000 sq miles would&nbsp;require 1.28 BILLION modules to cover. CIGS&nbsp;is about&nbsp;1/2 as efficient as&nbsp;pure silicon modules. Degredation averages&nbsp;roughly 0.5% per year over a 20 year period. Nanosloer offers a 25 year warranty. How do I buy shares in Nanosolar?</p>
Comment
38 of 39
April 3, 2008
i have just come across this artical which claims to have reached an efficiency of 19.9% for CIGS

http://www.treehugger.com/files/2008/03/thin-film-solar-panel-efficiency-record.php
Comment
39 of 39
April 13, 2008
Based on the following caculation, I believe we should have enough Indium to produce annual CIGS solar cell to equivalent 1GW traditional power plant. Based on the Indium density 7.3 g/cm3, 2 micron CIGS thickness, 15% In content, and 10% converse efficiency, we only need 0.022 gram In to produce 1 Watt, i.e. 22 metric tons of In to produce 1 GW power.
The annual refinery of In is 500 tons for 2005, 480 tons for 2006 ( from USGS,Mineral commodity Summary, Jan. 2007), i.e. only 5% of annual Indium refinery can produce 1 GW CIGS solar cell. I believe LCD industry consume much more indium, and they should worry In supply , and not the CIGS industy.
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