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December 24, 2007

An Unbiased Approach to Evaluating Transportation Fuels

by Ben Cipiti, Sandia National Laboratories

For the past thirty years our country has become increasingly more aware of the effects our energy use has on the environment. At the same time, it is clear that our dependence on foreign oil is having significant consequences to our economy and our national security. Yet despite alternative technologies, we still get most of our energy from the fossil fuels. We know we have a problem, but the challenges of moving away from the established technologies and infrastructure are monumental.

Many of us want to know what we can do to make a difference. Yet with so much varying information about energy alternatives, it has become difficult to choose which technologies really make sense and which will be a waste of research dollars. We have become skeptical of anything that the so-called "experts" tell us — and rightly so as many of the experts have their own motives.

The use of ethanol is the best example. The major criticism of ethanol revolves around the excessive energy inputs required to grow, harvest, and convert corn or other crops into fuel. A number of studies are available that show a slight net energy gain and a slight decrease of pollution with ethanol use. (see http://www.transportation.anl.gov/pdfs/AF/265.pdf) But if we then find out that those studies were funded by the Department of Agriculture, we have to question the work. Other studies written by those without a special interest show a net energy loss with the use of ethanol and a pollution increase compared to oil. (see http://petroleum.berkeley.edu/papers/Biofuels/MyBiofuelPapersTop.htm)

It has become surprisingly challenging to find truly un-biased studies. Researchers are always fighting for more funding, so they tend to paint their work in the best possible light — seldom is the entire story told. Clean energy options need to be examined from a number of perspectives including environmental impact, economics, the domestic resource base, public acceptability, and reliability.

If ethanol is not a net energy producer, and if there is no pollution difference from oil, then why should we head in that direction? Reducing dependence on foreign oil is an admirable goal, but even converting our entire corn crop to ethanol would only displace about 15% of our oil use. A great deal of money in the form of research dollars and subsidies has been poured into ethanol, but it will not achieve our goals of drastically reducing pollution and eliminating dependence on foreign oil.

Hydrogen has also received significant funding recently, but the hydrogen economy has many flaws that need to be considered. The technology for producing, transporting and using hydrogen in fuel cells is still a few decades off. Efficient production of hydrogen can only occur with very high temperature heat which eliminates all of the renewables except for concentrated solar. But the single biggest problem with the hydrogen economy is that it will be incredibly wasteful of energy resources (and very little attention has addressed this issue). Consider that hydrogen first must be produced in a power plant, and then the hydrogen gets converted to electricity in a fuel cell to power an electric motor. The overall process of producing, compressing, transporting and finally using hydrogen has many efficiency losses. Why not eliminate the middle man and go straight to electric vehicles?

It turns out that when compared side by side, an electric vehicle economy will be more than twice as efficient as a hydrogen economy. In other words, the hydrogen economy would require building twice as many new power plants as compared to converting to electric vehicles. And whereas hydrogen production only makes sense with high temperature nuclear or solar heat, the electric vehicle economy can use any source of clean energy — including all of the renewable technologies.

Electric vehicles are not without their share of difficulties. Battery technology still needs to improve, both in terms of performance and cost. But electric vehicles have a development path already established. The commercial success of hybrids is leading to cost decreases that will soon lead to the plug-in hybrid. With more widespread use of plug-in hybrids and with the emerging technology of rapid charge batteries, it is likely that we will soon see an all-electric vehicle that is desirable to a majority of the population.

Solutions to our energy problems do exist, but it will take a variety of technologies to reach our goals. Of the alternative transportation options, electric vehicles coupled with increased use of renewables and other clean sources of energy will be the most efficient way to reduce pollution and eliminate dependence on foreign oil. We need to look at all of the issues to concentrate funding on the solutions that make sense.

Ben Cipiti received his bachelor's degree in mechanical engineering from Ohio University and PhD in nuclear engineering from the University of Wisconsin-Madison. He currently works at Sandia National Laboratories in Albuquerque, New Mexico, with research interests in energy economics, fusion energy, the nuclear fuel cycle and nuclear material safeguards. He is also the author of The Energy Construct.

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Reader Comments (53)
 
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December 24, 2007
Then of course you get into the "what are they leaving out" category.

Michael Wang for instance seems to be allergic to including nitrogen fixation in his studies
http://greyfalcon.net/n2o.png

Paul Crutzen, the nobel prize scientist who brought us the ozone hole theory mentions the rate of N2O formation is more than double what was previously thought.
http://greyfalcon.net/n2ostudy

Then there's the land-use aspect:
http://greyfalcon.net/landuse

And just deforestation in general
http://greyfalcon.net/palmoil

And then there's nitrogen runoff into deadzones creating more N2O by denitrifying bacteria.
http://www.treehugger.com/files/2007/12/ocean_bacteria_nitrous_oxide.php
Comment 1 of 53
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December 24, 2007
While it's nice to compare Michael Wang versus Tad Patzek. Their arguments are primarily based on "Energy Returns on Energy Investments". Frankly, that has very little to do with the environment.

What makes far more sense is to compare Greenhouse emissions per mile in such a way that it's ignores vehicle weight. (GHG/Torque)
http://greyfalcon.net/lca.png
Comment 2 of 53
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December 24, 2007
Just to deal with one minor part of the nonsense in the multiple 'lies' posting, energy from hydrogen is not free - if you have capital cost of the equipment to make the hydrogen, then you still have to pay for it, although the fuel itself may be free in sunlight or whatever.
Comment 3 of 53
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December 24, 2007
It would be nice, I think, if all the postings attacking numbered "lies" were removed.
Comment 4 of 53
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December 24, 2007
As a former hydrogen fan who converted about ten years ago, I would point out that Cipiti, in saying "eliminate the middle man and go direct to electric vehicles", ignores a middle-man-eliminating possibility: use hydrogen produced by non-electrical means (such as the sulphur-iodine water dissociation process) in hydrogen combustion engines.

The reason I ceased to be a hydrogen fan is I became a boron one.
Comment 5 of 53
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December 24, 2007
Lie #7:
"We have enough gasoline to last forever"
RESPONSE: Gasoline/petroleum/petrochemicals have now been shown to be the number one cause of cancer, and maybe the primary cause of cancer, in the world. Besides causing global warming, lung disease and all of the other bad things that it does; the oil industry itself knows that affordable oil is gone around the year 2030. Even if it wasn't, do you really want the ROOT CAUSE OF CANCER around one day longer than it needs to be? (See the EPA report "EPA/600/S-6-87/001 Sept. 1987" as one of over 16,000 studies validating this.)
Comment 6 of 53
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December 24, 2007
Lie #6:
"Hydrogen is too dangerous"
RESPONSE: If the gasoline in your car blows up it will do a VAST AMOUNT more death and damage than H2 ever will. You are driving a MOLOTOV COCKTAIL. H2 on fire rapidly dissipates up an into the air. Gasoline flows all over people, cars and streets and covers all of the above with flaming death you can't easily extinguish. In 2030 oil is GONE and there is NO OTHER OPTION that can be delivered world-wide in time but H2! Biofuel only solves 2% of the problem. Batteries have failed. Nuclear is too dangerous.
Comment 7 of 53
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December 24, 2007
Lie #4:
"The infrastructure isn't there"
RESPONSE: Solid state hydrogen can be shipped by UPS, Common Carrier and uses all existing infrastructure. DOPT has already licensed and approved such solid state delivery via common EXISTING INFRASTRUCTURE. This method can reavch every person on earth TODAY! This requires almost NO NEW INFRASTRUCTURE. NO INFRASTRUCTURE IS NEEDED!!! This is the biggest lie of all. A large number of start-ups have solid state hydrogen solutions that entirely use existing infrastructure.


Lie #5:
"the hydrogen is too expensive"
RESPONSE: Hydrogen can be made at home or office in numerous ways powered by solar or wind or microbes or any number of free power sources. It is always being made by such devices and constantly trickle charged into solid state storage systems all day and night FOR FREE without grid power. Hydrogen processors now make hydrogen with 91% efficiency.
Comment 8 of 53
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December 24, 2007
Lie #3:
" hydrogen molecules can't be contained easily without energy-consuming compressors or maintaining them in liquid form at extremely low temperatures , and it's extremely difficult to store,"
RESPONSE: This data is also from the 60's. Hydrogen is stored in chemical powders and muds that easily contain vast amounts of hydrogen. Pressure and liquid tanks to store hydrogen are old school archaic technologies. Hydrogen can be easily stored in over 2800 different solid state compounds.
Comment 9 of 53
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December 24, 2007
Lets go over the battery and bio-fuel shills lies:

Lie # 1:
"But critics say the process of producing hydrogen requires three to four times more energy than the hydrogen later generates in the fuel cell."
RESPONSE: This is data from the 60's. It is now more efficient to make hydrogen than it is to make gasoline, build or use batteries or process bio-fuel. The technology has beat everything else.

Lie # 2:
"the cars are too expensive."
RESPONSE: The production of hydrogen cars is at an early stage while battery cars have been around for almost a hundred years and the battery cars are still expensive for what you get. The Moore's law on hydrogen cars shows a clear price decline to low cost in market volume. A Fuel Cell car that goes 500 miles without a charge costs half as much TODAY as a battery car that goes 500 miles without a charge.
Comment 10 of 53
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December 24, 2007
C. Tens of millions of dollars are being spent by battery companies like A123, Cobasys, AltairNano, etc. in order to discredit hydrogen because hydrogen works better than batteries. A large number of "pundits" who act as "writers", "bloggers", "authors" and "non-profit evangelist group founders" are actually supported by financial gain from battery companies who are terrified of hydrogen displacing their revenue streams. They include:

Ulf Bossel of the European Fuel Cell Forum,

Alec Brooks

James Woolsey

EV World

Sam Thurber

Cal Cars

Felix Kramer
Comment 11 of 53
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December 24, 2007
B. It now costs less to make hydrogen from water than any known way to make gasoline and it continues to get cheaper every month: The GE Noryl system, The R4 processor and over a hundred different systems can do this NOW; with many more expected next year. The "battery shill" spin has worn thin and has been supplanted by facts. Hydrogen is made from WATER via solar energy, wind energy, microbes, radio waves, sunlight and salt, and other FREE sources of energy. Hydrogen can also be made from any organic garbage, waste, plants or ANYTHING organic via lasers, plasma beams or dozens of other powered exotics which can be run off of EITHER the grid or the free hydrogen made from solar energy, wind energy, microbes, radio waves, sunlight and salt, and other FREE sources of energy OR the grid. There is no oil that needs to be involved anywhere in the production of hydrogen. These systems trickle charge hydrogen into storage containers, either tanks or solid state cassettes, 24/7.
Comment 12 of 53
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December 24, 2007
I see some negative assumptions about hydrogen here. I believe hydrogen is the right way to go. I would like to provide some cut-and-paste of some well-known postings of others, on the internet, which counter some of the points against H2:

"Hydrogen beats batteries, biofuel and all other vehicle power solutions:

A. Hydrogen can be made at home and requires NO NEW INFRASTRUCTURE. Anybody who says it can't be made at home or work is either a shill or completely out of touch with reality and technology. You can make it for free, at home, all day long and all night long. The production can be powered by solar, wind, microbes and other free sources. The volume of H2 produced "IS" enough to charge solid state H2 containers. The metrics quoted by the anti-hydrogen crowd are just lies to protect their competing business interests.
Comment 13 of 53
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December 24, 2007
I believe that Cipiti's off-hand dismissal of data due to "bias" is completely unwarranted. Accusations of bias in science should be followed up with specifics, and in this case there are none.

Imagine you are a university researcher who gets a grant to study ethanol economics from the Department of Agriculture. How much "bias" is there to get a particular answer? About zero. There is little chance that your next grant will depend on the answer you got for the previous one, nor does getting a grant affect your personal finances much, if at all. Getting QUALITY results from the research matters, but getting a particular answer does not. From the point of view of a researcher, getting the RIGHT answer is always much more important professionally and financially than getting an answer that is most desired by someone supplying the grant money.
Comment 14 of 53
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December 26, 2007
==the efficiency of room-temp electrolysis at 75-85%.==
Last I checked, "room temperature" isn't 800°C
Room temperature electrolysis is closer to 50% efficiency.

==you will see that H2-Vehicles can have comparable overall efficiency with BEV's==
Only when we're assuming the hydrogen comes from reforming coal.
http://greyfalcon.net/hydrogen2

==Right now nothing is off the table.==
That depends. If the main issue we're worried about is global warming, then there is most certainly many things which are off the the table.

==Larger vehicles will be powered by hydrogen since the weight and cost of a large battery pack will be prohibiting.==
But much less prohibitive than powering the car with hydrogen.
10x range lithium batteries
Scroll down a bit for discussion
Comment 15 of 53
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December 26, 2007
Excellent article! An oil-sponsored academic "study" done in the 1990s over-stated the environmental release of lead from batteries by three orders of magnitude. Was the scientist-author of the report an idiot or an oil shill?

Someone trolled an EV discussion list recently with the same twisted points (and attitude) as T. Joes. I would like to see evidence that battery companies have spent any money on bashing hydrogen power. Advanced batteries are only now ramping up production of large-format batteries; there are no huge profits (as yet) to waste on bashing hydrogen power.

I have evidence that oil and auto groups spent millions bashing EVs; the Western States Petroleum Association let contracts to counteract "the growing public acceptance of electric vehicles" in the 1990s.

The US President, Big Oil and several major automakers have lavished billions of dollars on hydrogen fuel-cell vehicle development, several times as much as has been granted to support EV development.
Comment 16 of 53
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December 26, 2007
(continued)The waste heat of a gas-turbine power plant can be used toward high-temperature electrolysis of water for H2 production, with electrical efficiency of wind electricity of up to 140%, vs. the efficiency of room-temp electrolysis at 75-85%. When solar energy is used, both heat and electricity can come directly from the sun. When combining this high level of H2 production, with the likes of the Honda FCX Clarity having 3x the efficiency of a comparable gasoline vehicle, you will see that H2-Vehicles can have comparable overall efficiency with BEV's.

The same argument goes for nuclear energy, which is produced at a constant rate, while the demand for energy will be highest in the winter. As such, there will still be a need to store nuclear energy production as H2( hydrogen).
Comment 17 of 53
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December 26, 2007
(Cont.)There is a large seasonal mismatch between the rate of renewable energy production and energy demand. Summer produces a lot of solar energy, while spring and fall produces a lot of wind energy with respect to demand, while winter requires a lot of energy for heating and lighting with very low solar energy production. As such, there will be a need to produce H2 from the surplus solar or wind energy in one season, and to store it for the next season. Battery electricity alone cannot store a massive amount of energy to use in the next season. When we will have a massive amount of stored H2, then H2-vehicle will be practical to take advantage of the stored H2. (2B Continued)
Comment 18 of 53
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December 26, 2007
Both BEV (battery electricity vehicle) and H2-vehicle will be needed to maximally exploit renewable energy.

BEV will represent small-size and short-range vehicle used for daily commute. BEV's are simple to produce and to maintain, and the small size and short range will keep the overall costs down to minimum.

Larger vehicles will be powered by hydrogen, or synthetic methane or liquid hydrocarbon, since the weight and cost of a large battery pack will be prohibiting. (2 B continued)
Comment 19 of 53
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December 26, 2007
Thomas wrote
"Anybody who says it can't be made at home or work is either a shill or completely out of touch with reality and technology."
Considering the laundry list of ideas that you posted following this quote I'm having a hard time believing that I'm totally out of touch with reality to not understand these ideas. This is obviously an extremely complicated discussion and problem with many nooks and crannies that the general population does not understand nor probably care about.

Personally I have not heard a whole lot about hydrogen, not even on renewable type publications and such that I read. If the big push of renewables comes of age it would stand to reason that a plug-in hybrid type of vehicle fleet would follow. Wind, solar and hydro produce electricity, a plug-in vehicle runs on electricity...bingo. To me that route seems like a logical progression.
Comment 20 of 53
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December 26, 2007
Jeff Lanterman,

I agree with you, allow free markets to vet these alternatives. Only then will we see ALL the pros and cons of hydrogen fuel cells, electric charge storage and renewable / waste bio-fuels.
Comment 21 of 53
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December 26, 2007
But if those researchers reach a conclusion, then they won't be unbiased any more, now will they.

For anyone on a government payroll, our energy woes aren't very woeful. Around the planet tens of millions of tonnes per day of fossil fuel are burnt, and on almost every tonne, big luscious taxes are paid. The rest of us, a majority, would like some non-sinful nuclear-generated substitute, but if it's non-sinful, what happens to the sin taxes?

This suggests to me that there *is* a silver bullet: redistribute fossil fuel tax revenues instantly and equally. Fossil fuels will no longer have a large fraction of everyone who gets government money doing everything he or she deniably can to block substitutes.
Comment 22 of 53
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December 26, 2007
You know, I have seen two schools of thought here, One for batteries one for hydrogen and essentially none for ethanol (from corn anyway I saw no mention here of cellulosic ethanol production)

Anyway what I am saying is there is not going to be one silver bullet to solve our energy woes. We need to develop all these technologies to achieve energy independence and we need to do it now. Along the way as we learn more some of the technologies will probably fall by the wayside and the ones that are viable will remain.

Right now nothing is off the table. An independent analysis from unbiased researchers may help.
Comment 23 of 53
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December 27, 2007
Wow Thomas JOes, you sure have been spamming the internet with this screed for quite some time, stumbled across one of your screed, checked google and found hundreds of hits here's 82:

http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&rls=com.microsoft%3A*&q=%2B%22sam+thurber%22+%2B%22Alec+Brooks%22

I'm wondering, since you feel qualified to question scientific greats like Alec Brooks,Ulf Bossel, Felix Kramer (founder of CalCars that promotes plug-in hybrids), and former National CIA director James Woolsey, what exactly your qualifications are, or for that matter what your real name is? Is it Shelly CArson , Anonymous from San Mateo, Thomas JOes, Do MO SAn, who are you? Why are you spending so much time on the internet slandering my name as well as the others?
Comment 24 of 53
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December 27, 2007
Energy Independence is largely just a political slogan for "Economic Warfare".

"If Saudi Arabia stops selling Oil to the US,
that they will have nowhere else to sell it to,
and go bankrupt. And we win!"


Now think about that for just about.... 5 seconds....
http://greyfalcon.net/dilbert2.png

Especially when you look at the facts:
http://greyfalcon.net/oilvsethanol.png
http://greyfalcon.net/biolimits.png
http://greyfalcon.net/perlack

So what it's REALLY an argument for is Coal-to-Oil, Oil Sands, Oil Shale, and Nuclear.
http://greyfalcon.net/fossilenergy.png
http://greyfalcon.net/fossilenergy
http://greyfalcon.net/h2nuke
Comment 25 of 53
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December 27, 2007
Jeff Lanterman & Jason Hendler,

I'm sorry but I disagree with both of you. Energy independence (IE) is far down on the list of issues we should be most concerned about and a free market economy certainly isn't the best way forward.

EI serves one primary purpose: our economy. What good will a heaving, ever-expanding economy do if we have no planet to live on? Growth is a fundamental pillar of neoclassical economics; without continued, year-on-year growth our current economy is doomed for failure.But how can we expect to have never-ending growth on a solitary planet?

EI is not the problem we should be most concerned about, living SUSTAINABLY is. In a free market economy we would cut down the Brazilian rainforests, plant monoculture soybeans, and produce ethanol if it were cheaper to do so from an economic point of view. How is this sustainable?

What we need to do is use massive governmental regulation to convert from a neoclassical to an ecological economy.
Comment 26 of 53
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December 28, 2007
These comments are GREAT!

Most of them are perfect examples for Mr. Cipiti's case in point...

Getting UNbiased data is problematic.

The RE industry is full of tech people who all have their pet projects and technologies. Even a hint of negativity against any of them, and you get a hail of verbal bullets. I am a technical person, so I am no different.

Isn't that bias?

Each of us brings our own bias. It's an age old problem.

When you've invested a significant portion of your life to a solution, it's hard let go of your bias when it turns out to be less than second best.
Comment 27 of 53
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December 28, 2007
1) Argonne's GREET transporation work is largely funded by DOE - EERE not USDA.

2) The analysis funding is not tied to any USDA or DOE investments at Argonne in ethanol research.

3) Argonne's receives far more funding for PHEV then ethanol and so a "funding bias" would be would be in the opposite direction.

4) Patzek's work at Berkeley was funded by the petroleum industry. There are as strong vested interest in the outcome of ethanol studies to the petroleum industry.
Comment 28 of 53
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December 28, 2007
I am more interested in here and now. ADM has mounted an advertising and lobbying campaign that threatens good energy solutions and human life by getting us to buy the "big lie" that ethanol from corn, and biodiesel from soy beans, are a viable alternative energy solution. And they're succeeding!! The energy bill of 2007 could well have been written by them. Grains and soy are terrible biofuel feedstocks! Sugar-based crops for ethanol and tree seed oils for biodiesel are the answer for carbon-based fuels. By the way, where is the power to recharge your EV's coming from - from dirty coal-fired power plants, over an already overloaded grid.
Comment 29 of 53
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December 28, 2007
I believe the PEV will win the longer term automotive market.

A major auto manufacturer is building a prototype of an SUV, Chevy Tahoe size, in conjunction with FEV and Raser Technologies. This vehicle is purported to deliver 100 MPG with a 400 mile range. The design will be driven by all electric and the battery may be charged by a gasoline or diesel motor that will charge the battery as needed during the driving process. I also believe the acceleration is equal to existing gas versions.

See: www.rasertech.com
Comment 30 of 53
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December 28, 2007
The fact is, the much-touted "Hydrogen Solution" promoted by the Bush Administration is a classic red-herring for diverting resources away from viable shorter term, realisable transport solutions such as EV and hybrid cars. This is an orchestrated approach which allows the petroleum industry to continue to extract maximum profits well beyond Peak Oil and into the years of oil scarcity, whilst we seek for the Hydrogen solution and it's dubious rewards. I have colleages working in fuel cell vehicle research who verify that the complexities and costs will extend required research well into the future..meanwhile, overseas vehicle development in hybrids and EVs will increase the USA's oil AND car technology dependency!
Comment 31 of 53
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December 28, 2007
I did some research by my own.

I concluded the following:
- If you take electricity as energy source, then H2 is half as efficient as batteries at most.
- If you take a hydrocarbon as energy source, H2 is on par with batteries, at most and on par with direct use of the hydrocarbon, at most.

Given the fact that H2 can not compete on energy efficiency, H2 must compete on other areas. Those areas could be price (in investment), range (where batteries are poor) or reduction in car pollution.

On price H2 is doing very bad. On range, H2 is doing better than batteries, but worse than ethanol. On car pollution it is on par with batteries, and slightly better than ethanol (ethanol is burning rather clean).

Given these conclusions, H2 has only future when:

- Very cheap fuel cells are produced.

OR

- All carbon fuels are totally banned.

Both are unlikely to happen before 2020. Only fundamental research makes sense, all other is a waste of money.
Comment 32 of 53
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December 28, 2007
Google my name with Alec Brooks, Ulf Bossel, James, or Felix Kramer or even hydrogen to find out how busy our little friend from the oil &/or auto industry has been spamming the internet with his/her/their deceptive, unproven lies.
Comment 33 of 53
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December 28, 2007
#6: Hydrogen is safer than gasoline, that's clear. It is not safer than batteries; hydrogen will burn, explosively if trapped inside an enclosed space … like the inside of a car. Batteries, if they do burn (which most don't) do not flow on the ground or float up into the air.

#7 Who in the clean energy game is making this claim?
Comment 34 of 53
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December 28, 2007
#3 if you are going to claim that hydrogen storage can be done in solid state compounds, you also have to take into account that it takes longer to put the hydrogen in these compounds than it does to charge a battery and they require active cooling, further degrading efficiency while re-fueling.

#4 The infrastructure is not there: Are you seriously proposing that we all wait for UPS to deliver fuel for our cars? Wouldn't it be faster just to plug it in?

#5 The hydrogen is too expensive: solar panels, wind turbines, microbe baths, are all not free. In fact they are very expensive and contrary to lie #1, you will indeed need 4 x as many of them to run a fuel cell vehicle than a BEV. They are not free; therefore the hydrogen is not free. It is in fact 4x more expensive than charging a BEV.
Comment 35 of 53
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December 28, 2007
If your going to keep spamming sites with these lies, perhaps you would like to back them up?

#1: That data is less than 10 years old based on prototype FCV's built by the major auto manufacturers. This didn't happen 50 years ago. I wouldn't be surprised if there are experimental fuel cells that are only 3 x less efficient, but every prototype on the road is approximately 4 x less efficient.

#2: Can you give one example of a manufacturer that is building a fuel cell vehicle that a) has a 300 mile range, and b) cost less than $1,000,000.00? My BEV cost me $42,000. Find me a FCV with a 100 mile range for $21,000 or admit your lies. BTW: who is paying you to spread these lies all over the internet?
Comment 36 of 53
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December 29, 2007
Lie #16
"There is no Santa"
RESPONSE: It's BS... I got presents, so there. The idea that there is no Santa is a myth from the 60's. Next year I plan to ask for a free hydrogen generating machine... with lasers and glowing plasma... though I'm not as fond of microbes, so I'll take one without those please.
Comment 37 of 53
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December 29, 2007
The only effective way to promote the development of alternative transportation fuels is to remove all market barriers. For example, in the case of ethanol and other biofuels, all crops should be subsidized equally (like they have started to do in Europe) or not at all. In addition, the US electricity industry must be de-monopolized in both regulated and deregulated markets (like they have started to do in Europe) to provide opportunities for cellulosic and cane crops (like Brazil uses the waste to cogenerate power). All of these studies and arguing about which fuel is best is how socialist and fascist states try and fail to innovate (Oh, I forgot, you Dems are socialists and you Reps are fascists).
Comment 38 of 53
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December 29, 2007
David Ahlport is my Daddy!

Seriously, listen to him, he is making more sense than most of the lunatic fringe. (You're welcome.)

With all of the Kokomo blather, we seem to have overlooked that the author is a shill for the nuclear power industry; and, the article is there to soothe any niggling doubts you still may have about the pro-nuclear part of the dirty energy bill.
Comment 39 of 53
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December 29, 2007
Well perhaps the thing that kills biofuels the most.
There just isn't enough raw plant material.

And no amount of wishful thinking, or magical liquid-conversion technology, is going to change that.

Game Over.

http://greyfalcon.net/biolimits.png
http://greyfalcon.net/perlack
http://greyfalcon.net/algae4
Comment 40 of 53
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December 29, 2007
Regardless of what future transportation technologies we choose conservation and decreased consumption are going to be the most important factors in determining our enviromental future, and these factors all to often get left by the wayside in discussions and websites such as this one because they are not profitable and sexy.
Comment 41 of 53
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December 29, 2007
You know, this is a very interesting conversation, but the entire discussion of bio-fuels, as well as the article has failed to mention any of the social implication of using food as a source for fuel. The growth of corn for Ethanol in this country and the use of other foodstocks for fuel in others is already having a dramatic effect on the cost of food and the ability of poorer nations to feed themselves (despite the fact that many grow enough food, or used to before deregulated trade). I can't believe that the "green" movement has become so focused on finding profitable ways to carbon-neutrality that it is virtually ignoring these effects in order to move more Americans from place to place.
Comment 42 of 53
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December 29, 2007
I am going to wait for the stomach enzymes in termites to breakdown trees fiber.
Everyone of you are missing the point. MIT researchers have come up with a new battery which is 10 times more efficient than present day batteries for Hybrids. Then when this gets into production Boeing will have a mirror and someone from San Diego will combine this will a backyard pool which as a byproduct is hydrogen eventhough the main purpose of the devise is to heat the residents house. Then this will be modified and create water for more farming in the Arizona desert. Think future not present.
Comment 43 of 53
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December 30, 2007
you are all on the wrong track ...

Compressed air cars are the way to go !!!!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_car

.... Paradox
Comment 44 of 53
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December 31, 2007
Once again, thermodynamics kicks in.

And with that, it's still not as good as a battery on any performance characteristics.

The only thing it might have potential in is the economic edge. But then again it still runs into the infrastructure downside. And cripplingly limited range.
Comment 45 of 53
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January 1, 2008
Still...why would developers go this route at ALL?  Considering the difficulties, the compound inefficiencies, the serious danger of having air up to 4500psi jammed into onboard storage, why would this have more than an academic appeal, compared even to something as wacky as a giant mainspring that we'd wind up at pit-stops or with a small IC engine, or (more realistically) flywheels (whatever happened to THAT approach to vehicular energy storage--carbon-fiber high-rpm vacuum-sealed units?)  Wikipedia lists  "four major manufacturers" engaged in this "air" effort.  Are they all getting funding from suckers who don't know their physics?
Comment 46 of 53
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January 1, 2008

This air-car thing nags at me.  Air is simply the working fluid, so to speak, offering no energy value in and of itself, though a lot of people without engineering or physics groundings seem to have the idea that it will "run on air," and are wondering why others are paying little attention to this effort. (cont'd)

 


Comment 47 of 53
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January 2, 2008

Interesting that basically all comments lean in the direction of a "silver bullet technology" that will solve all our future transportation challenges from a sustainability perspective. Eventually (say 50-100 yrs) there may be a "preferred" solution, but based on the resources currently available globally and regionally, it appears that there will not be one solution that will be as "easy" to use as oil and/or natural gas.

This will require a significant change of mind in the way we think about future solutions, and keeping our minds and perspectives open to combinations of technologies will help with this. Hopefully everyone involved in this discussion can remember this.


Comment 48 of 53
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January 4, 2008

Sure there is.
It's called the second law of thermodynamics.

Cars 30 years ago, on average, had better fuel economy than they do right now.  Thats pathetic.
http://greyfalcon.net/cafe.png

Especially when you consider that mpg versus gallons consumed is actually expontential, not linear. 

http://gristmill.grist.org/story/2007/12/19/152610/35

One of the biggest things they could do is mandate that cars above a certain curb-weight need to be diesels or better. 


Comment 49 of 53
January 14, 2008

The only possible unbiased evaluation consists of two parts:

Total fuel dollars spent per mile traveled, on average for the Nth mile.

--and -- 

Total capital dollars to travel an arbitrary distance, say 100,000mi over the life of the vehicles' power trains.

That's it! Anything else is propaganda and or decoration. 

The tough part is ferreting out all the subsidies hidden in the production of each and every fuel evaluated.  And each drive train technology.

The most qualified guys to do the physical research portion of the task are probably Adam & Jamie aka the "Myth Busters"...  All in all this is the easy part.

The hard part is getting the producers to put a couple of forensic accountants on staff with Tory, Grant, and, Kari.  Yeah, that's how difficult that part of the task would be.


Comment 50 of 53
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January 17, 2008

many of you have the answer. As Jeff and Roger out it so well. WE NEED ALL OF THESE IDEAS IE Anyway what I am saying is there is not going to be one silver bullet to solve our energy woes. We need to develop all these technologies to achieve energy independence and we need to do it now. Along the way as we learn more some of the technologies will probably fall by the wayside and the ones that are viable will remain.

When You combine the best of each technology you really get synergy. If you make H2 from renewables or even off peak electricity it is very good GREEN hydrogen.

If you use the electric, H2 and other forms of energy efficiently it is even better. If we work together instead of fight we use our energy for the overall best answers. Some may even vary is different areas of the country and world.

Let's work together and combine the best choices. Oil pollution and Global Warming are real.  


Comment 51 of 53
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April 1, 2008
The factor of two in efficiency difference between EVs and FCVs is actually if all of the goals for hydrogen production and use are achieved. Right now it is closer to a 4x gap. To illustrate the 2x future gap, take the future H2 from H2O goal of 50kWhe/kgH2 (for H2 at 6000psi), which is 78% efficient relative to the HHV of H2, and the FreedomCar fuel cell peak efficiency goal of 20kWhe/kgH2, which is 60% efficiency relative to the LHV of H2, and right there you see that from renewable electricity in to out is 40% (20 kWh/kg divided by 50 kWh/kg). The same path for an EV is approximately 80%. Thus it will take twice as many Stirling dishes or wind turbines to power a FCV fleet as it takes to power an EV fleet.

The efficiency loss of H2 is partially due to starting with liquid water and ending up with water vapor. The energy to vaporize the water comes from your wind or solar farm, unfortunately.
Comment 52 of 53
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April 1, 2008
Better technology is always helpful, but current technology seems sufficient, so I ask why you write "Battery technology still needs to improve, both in terms of performance and cost." NiMH EVs on the road with 100 mile range and well over 100,000 battery pack lifetimes are successfully being used by the fortunate few that bought all that were produced. EVs built today would likely use LiFePO4 batteries, which have similar cost and lifetime to NiMH (unlike LiCo batteries which are half the price, but wear out after a few years, and have fire issues that must be addressed in the design). At $500/kWh for LiFePO4, it looks like the 12-year/150,000-mile cost of ownership of an EV would be lower than a gasoline vehicle (I used $5/gallon as the average price of gasoline over the next 12 years, which if anything is quite low). To address the up-front cost of the battery pack, one could lease it instead of buying it, and then the monthly cost is the same as paying for gasoline.
Comment 53 of 53
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