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August 7, 2006

Solar Stocks Boom in 2005 -- But It Is Just the Beginning

by Peter Lynch, Independent Wall Street Analyst

For the most part, 2005 was a mediocre year for the stock market. The market mostly went sideways to nowhere and was generally a boring year for most stock market investors. The Dow Jones was down 0.61%, the S&P 500 was up 3% and the NASDAQ was up 1.37% for the year.

"There are only a small number of stocks and they are almost totally focused in the Photovoltaics sector of the industry, but it is certainly a beginning and a "stellar" beginning at that."

-- Peter Lynch, Independent Wall Street Analyst

But quietly in the background, 2005 may also have been the beginning of a "bright," new and very promising trend. More solar-related companies became public companies both in the U.S. and in Germany and as a result the renewable/solar industry sector gained a much needed higher profile with the American investing public. This is an important trend, because for many years the solar industry has been very much of a cottage industry, with little attention being paid to it and money invested in it. However, as we all know, once people start to invest their hard earned money into an industry, they pay much more serious attention to that industry and what it is doing. All of which is good for the industry and good for the future of our planet.

There are not many companies that are public, whose primary business is in one of the renewable energy areas: biomass (ethanol, bio-diesel), hydropower, solar electric (photovoltaics), solar thermal, wind power, geothermal, fuel cells and other "green" areas. But more and more of these companies are starting to show up on investors' "radar" screens and they are beginning to get a following on Wall Street.

Below is a comparison of the 2005 performance of seven solar related public companies and one "clean energy" exchange-traded fund (ETF) that trade on major U.S. markets and whose primary business is renewable energy verses a number of indices that are commonly used in the financial press. These companies and the ETF are listed in alphabetical order, followed by their stock market trading symbol and their percentage gain in 2005:

Distributed Energy Systems Corporation (DESC) + 160%
DayStar Technologies, Inc. (DSTI) + 336%
Energy Conversion Devices, Inc. (ENER) + 160%
Evergreen Solar Inc. (ESLR) + 213%
Powershares Wilderhill Clean Energy Fund (PBW) + 19.5%
Spire Corporation (SPIR) + 120%
Sunpower Corporation (SPWR) +34%
Suntech Power Holdings (STP) +32%

Average Gain for U.S. solar stocks in 2005 = 134%
Average Gain for three Indexes in 2005 = 1.25%

As you can see from the numbers, there was nothing "lackluster" about solar related stocks in 2005. They clearly and substantially outperformed all the comparative indices. Admittedly, there are only a small number of stocks and they are almost totally focused in the Photovoltaics sector of the industry, but it is certainly a beginning and a "stellar" beginning at that. Their growth has slowed down in the first half of 2006 and they are currently in the midst of a corrective stage, but they are still substantially outperforming the major indices since the beginning of 2005.

There are two things that are important to understand regarding investing in the current renewable energy industry:

Just the Beginning
This is "just the beginning" of the birth of the renewable energy industry. The renewable energy industry is at the same stage now as the automobile industry was in 1900. We are seeing the first few companies becoming public and we will see hundreds more over the next decades. It will be an exciting time for investors and there will be plenty of opportunity for investors to make money and also help the environment, which is a welcome change from fossil fuel dominated energy sector of today.

High Volatility
At this early stage of development there will be plenty of volatility in this sector until it becomes a more mature industry. Investors must carefully select their entry points and be patient. This sector is NOT for the faint of heart. An investor has to be careful to only invest a portion of their portfolio, which they have designated for "higher risk" investments. These will be the stocks that you can make the most money on, but also the ones you could lose the most on. Risk and reward have always been intrinsically linked and this is no exception.

With this increased profile for the renewable energy industry, hopefully will come a greater knowledge and awareness on the part of the American public and thereafter more positive action and attention directed at the most critical topics of our lifetime - Global Warming, our insane and growing dependence on foreign oil and a range of other related problems that can, in the long term, only be addressed by a massive scale up of renewable energy technologies of all forms.

About the author...
J. Peter Lynch has worked for 29 years as a Wall Street analyst, an independent equity analyst and private investor, and a merchant banker to small emerging technology companies. He has been actively involved in following developments in the renewable energy sector since 1977and is regarded as an expert in this area. He is currently an investment banker and financial/technology consultant to a number of companies. He can be reached via e-mail at Solarjpl@aol.com.
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The information and views expressed in this article are those of the author and not necessarily those of RenewableEnergyWorld.com or the companies that advertise on its Web site and other publications.

Reader Comments (13)
 
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August 9, 2006
It is high time renewable energy companies went public. I can think of a few more companines I hope to see on this list soon, both for their benifit and all our benifits in seeing these tools rejeuvinated by the public sector interest and financial backing. I am hopeful several concentrating solar plant manufacturers will consider going public soon, to allow them to grow as rapidly as the free market will allow and to fill the need for rapid development in this area. The new jobs, environmental healing and encouragement to our citizens that they can play a role in solving our problems will be a real blessing. JerryCheesman@yahoo.com
Comment 1 of 13
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August 9, 2006
This is certainly encouraging. It would be interesting to hear if there were any underperforming solar stocks. Does Peter think there are sectors of the industry that will become "hot" like photovoltaics?
Comment 2 of 13
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August 9, 2006
Great article and hopefully REAccess will continue to publish more articles relating to the finance side of the industry. If renewables are to become main stream energy source, we will need the strong support of Wall Street and the private equity world. Lets see more from Mr. Lynch in the coming year.
Comment 3 of 13
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August 9, 2006
The CEO of General Motors has stated that he does not see a problem with $4.00 per gallon gasoline. He probably does not see a problem with $3.00 per gallon heating oil, or a significant rise in electricity bills as affecting the average american. I believe that this nation cannot afford this line of thinking which is what this administration puts forth. We are now working for the oil companies, and big corporations, and the U.S. government does not seem to realize that families are becoming exhausted in just trying to make ends meet. With this line of thinking, there is no relief in sight. Is it any wonder that our children will have less of a standard of living than their parents if this thinking prevails.
Comment 4 of 13
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August 9, 2006
Solar power has so many long term benefits that the market for the products and hence the value of companies in the industry has to grow. In addition to all the points that Peter Lynch makes in his wonderful article, the freedom from foreign control of our economy, our military decisions and our very life style should be a clear objective for every American. Renewable Energy IS Homeland Security.
John Pfeifer, Apollo Solar, Inc.
Comment 5 of 13
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August 9, 2006
Our Solar business is growing, over the past seven years we have seen a slight upward growth curve that is starting to pick up speed recently. With the state of the energy industry we think Peter Lynch is right on target with his forcast. The number one question we get from potential customers is "how can I reduce or eliminate my power bills". Projected increases in electricity rates nationwide, and oil and gas volitility, renewables has a significant chance to grow. Thanks for the article Peter, we love the support!
Comment 6 of 13
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August 9, 2006
I wish it was 1900 again. Thanks
RenewableEnergy/Access.com for
the information.
Comment 7 of 13
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August 10, 2006
Volatile is right. I own SPWR, STP, ESLR, WFR and ENER. It is a wild ride and many of these stocks already carry sky-high valuations, so be cautious. They seem tied to both energy prices and the tech sector, and every time options become exercisable there are large swings as it doesn't take much to move the price on these. Also a lot of betting and short selling on the volatility. Since I bought in earlier this year, I have lost more than I have made due to poor entry timing and all the volatility. Still, I want to support the sector, so I buy and try not to look at what they are doing. Cheers.
Comment 8 of 13
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August 10, 2006
Astophysicist Carl Sagan, in his 1980 series, "Cosmos", said the logical direction for civilization was to harness solar power. He put forth that there might already be a plant somewhere that has reached this stage. With solar & internal thermo heat, we would have perpetual energy for millions, if not billions of years:CHEAP!!
Comment 9 of 13
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August 11, 2006
Everyone that thinks solar is the greatest should look into the coming technology called the Thermal Power Cell (Henze). This cell puts out power with heat not sunlight. The power put out at 140 Deg. F is 20 times a solar cell and costs 1/2 if a solar cell. Watch for it, its coming very soon. More information herb@ils-partners.com
Comment 10 of 13
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August 11, 2006
I really enjoyed this article. It made me realize that there is an enormous potential in this market. We need more voices, like Mr. Lynch's, to educate public on what's beneath our very noses.
Comment 11 of 13
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August 11, 2006
"All of which is good for the industry and good good for the future of our planet". - Peter Lynch.
Where do the people figure into these equations? With the increase of almost $100.00 (or more) per PV module over the past few years because of the "industries" inability to keep up with demand because of what they claim is a shortage in the raw PV materials, and they are still showing a profit in the market. Spin me some more Peter, I am not dizzy enough yet. Should I spend over $700.00 for a 1,000 watthour day or $0.09 for a 1,000 watthours? Maybe you should take a look at advertised prices for PV module and the supporting equipment instead of how much money the "industry" is stacking up from it all. I would have said its more like the present day oil industry than the 1900 auto industry. Especially considering that humans do not need all of this energy that is being utilized to survive on the planet Earth.
Comment 12 of 13
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August 13, 2006
I applaud the rise in venture capital interest in alternative energy, both electric energy and alternative fuels; however, I think the VC community is asleep at the wheel in seeing a vast new market. While solar systems produce electric power they do nothing to relieve oil demand which is used primarily for transportation. The great idea - short circuit the alternative fuels group by powering vehicles directly with electricy. Why pack fuel around in vehicles? The technology is there. The VCs just haven't discovered it yet.
Comment 13 of 13
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