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January 13, 2006

In Wake of California Solar Plan, Industry Prepares for Expansion

by Jesse Broehl, Editor, RenewableEnergyAccess.com
San Francisco, California [RenewableEnergyAccess.com]

Solar advocates and industry executives alike were in a state of complete exuberance at an industry reception Thursday at San Francisco City Hall following the narrow but successful vote by California state regulators to implement a long term rebate plan with unprecedented funding levels in the U.S.

"The most important significance to this plan is that it takes long term commitments to grow the industry. Manufacturers are contemplating major investments because of this."

-- Mark Farber, co-founder and Vice President, Strategic Planning of Evergreen Solar, a photovoltaic manufacturer

Earlier in the day, The California Public Utilities Commission passed the California Solar Initiative (CSI), an historic plan that allots USD $3.2 billion for solar energy rebates in the state for the next 11 years, providing for the installation of approximately 3000 MW of solar energy.

"Of all the numbers in this plan, it's the 11 number that's most important," said Mark Farber, co-founder and Vice President, Strategic Planning of Evergreen Solar, a photovoltaic manufacturer. "The most important significance to this plan is that it takes long term commitments to grow the industry. Manufacturers are contemplating major investments because of this. As well as for many installers and distributors, they need the long term commitment too."

Evergreen Solar will "absolutely" increase capacity as result of this, said Farber. Already, the company has been in the process of expanding its manufacturing facilities threefold in Germany, thanks partly to the country's supportive policies for solar. Now California, where roughly 80 percent of the U.S. solar market has been centered, has its own long-term rebate plan.

"It has been a bit embarrassing for us as Americans to not play as strong a role as Germany," Farber said. "This is clearly changing this."

Gordon Handelsman, Sr. Director of Marketing and Sales for Shell Solar, also a solar PV manufacturer, echoed Farber's thoughts.

"I see the market as a tripod between Japan, Germany and now the U.S.," Handelsman said. "The U.S. has been the lagging piece of the stool, this will address that."

Marc Roper, Vice President of sales and marketing for the U.S. division of solar manufacturer Schott Solar, added that propping up that U.S. leg of the global solar market also helps reduce the global risk for the industry and its current and future investors by diversifying the demand portfolio. This is similar to the basic mantra of diversifying investments: the more markets open up, he says, especially ones with long-term policies, the more that mainstream financial institutions will feel comfortable getting involved.

And, Roper also now expects Schott to strongly consider opening a new manufacturing facility somewhere in the NAFTA zone to meet the expected demand for solar in California.

"Yes we'll increase capacity. This plan is the kind of thing that can really grow markets," Roper said. "The next move for expansion is to locate manufacturing in the strong markets."

A key point playing into the industry's growth, and how the CSI might affect it, is the current bottleneck in the supply chain for silicon, needed for roughly 90 percent of solar panels built around the world. Robust global demand has led to a shortage of this critical raw material, and that situation is predicted to continue to hamper the market, at least within the next year or more.

"In the short term we probably are not going to see enormous growth," Roper said in reference to what the CSI plan could do to boost the market. "But this gives us, as an industry, confidence to work with silicon producers to expand capacity. This enables us to secure the feedstock."

Long-term investments in solar silicon feedstock are critical to long-term investments in overall manufacturing, said Chris O'Brien, Vice President of Strategy and Government Relations for Sharp Solar, currently the largest solar PV producer globally.

Just as it takes some lead time to ramp up solar manufacturing facilities, it takes lead time for silicon suppliers to ramp up their production. One of the first items O'Brien sees from the California's new long-term policy on solar is a new atmosphere of security where companies can make long-term deals for the feedstock supply.

However the industry embraces this plan, there was a resounding satisfaction that the public utilities commissioners, led by its President Michael Peevey, took a bold and progressive step this week with a policy that sends a strong message about the future of solar.

"We can begin to grow again in California," said Kari Smith, Regulatory Affairs for PowerLight, a solar systems project integrator. "The PUC effort, led by Commissioner Peevey, showed real leadership. In the end, it's individuals who show real leadership and that's what makes things happen."
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Reader Comments (4)
 
No image available
January 13, 2006
I guess the reason the Solar Initiative is electricity oriented is that there is an element of funding California's Silicon Valley industry ?

The solar hot water technology is very mature, could ramp up mass production cheaply and quickly, and hot water accounts for up to 40% of household electricity usage. Widespread deployment would be equivalent to the same amount of distributed power generation.

Solar hot water units with electric boosters have been used here in Australia since the 1960's, especially in the hot outback areas

China currently installs 10millon solar hot water units/year

I don't think there is any real need for a 'pilot'

Surely solar hot water heaters can just as easily be integrated with gas boosters as they are with electric boosters ?

..... Paradox
Comment 1 of 4
No image available
January 13, 2006
The Solar Initiative includes a pilot program for solar thermal water heating. It says "We also propose that solar thermal water heating and associated heating and/or cooling that offsets natural gas and electricity use onsite be eligible for CSI incentives on a limited basis initially. Although solar water heating does not normally reduce electric demand since most hot water heaters are gas, the need for reductions in gas usage is increasingly critical given recent concerns regarding natural gas prices and supply nationwide. We also note that incentive dollars, in addition to coming from the electricity sector, will also derive from natural gas ratepayer funds. Consequently, funding natural gas-reducing solar applications is a natural fit with the program."
For the full text of the decision passed yesterday go to the CPUC home page, www.cpuc.ca.gov , click on "Solar Inititiative". Click on Appendix A to see the text on solar water heating above.
Comment 2 of 4
No image available
January 13, 2006
Do I take it correctly that the rebates are for solar electric only? (That would be unfortunately short sighted.)
Comment 3 of 4
No image available
January 18, 2006
What type of Solar Concentrators are going to be manufactured?? Will they use mirrors?
or another method?
Comment 4 of 4
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