The World's #1 Renewable Energy Network for News, Information, and Companies.

Solar and Geothermal Tracking Reports: Project Finance Still Major Challenge

Despite healthy expected returns, finance-related challenges remain the largest barriers to renewable energy development, according to NREL's Renewable Energy Finance Tracking Initiative (REFTI).

Two recently released reports on solar and geothermal technologies show greater than 10% expected returns for both developers and tax equity investors. Yet roughly half of both geothermal and solar respondents (350 in total) reported financial issues (project economics, PPAs, creditworthiness, and raising capital) as the largest barriers to development. In light of this, only 11%-13% of respondents reported abandoning their projects.

Figure 1. Expected returns on developer equity for all solar technologies and project sizes Q4 2009 – 2H 2011

Geothermal projects reported the highest returns among all technologies (Figure 1 above) with both developer and tax equity returns estimated to exceed 15%. Returns were rather comparable between small- and large-scale solar, with concentrated solar power (CSP) reporting the lowest expected tax equity returns. Although some research suggests tax equity investors' returns can be much higher than developers', the rather tight spreads reported by REFTI participants indicate this may not necessarily be the case. Higher developer participation could also be influencing expected returns.

On the cost side, CSP reported lower estimated installed costs and LCOE than PV (Table 1 above), which could be due to a number of factors, including the timing of panel purchases, estimated nature of total CSP project costs, and storage capabilities. Prior to the second half of 2011, installed PV costs were declining faster than module prices, as reported by SEIA/GTM's U.S. Solar Market Insights Reports, 2010 – 2011, indicating balance-of-system costs were declining as well. This trend reversed in 2H 2011, however. Small PV, for example, reported a 60% increase from the prior period ($0.039 to $0.063/W). Conversely, LCOE reportedly dropped for both PV categories, but large PV is trending down and small PV is trending up over the entire timeframe. Geothermal reported the lowest LCOE, averaging $0.067/kWh from late 2009 through 2011.

Figure 2. Average PPA term, escalation rate, and first-year price (measured in ¢/kWh and size of bubble) by technology, Q4 2009–2H 2011

In line with LCOE cost data, first-year power purchase agreement (PPA) prices for large-scale PV were also highest among the four utility-scale project sizes and technologies shown above in Figure 2 (small PV excluded due to retail/wholesale price differences). Geothermal reported the longest PPA terms and second-highest year one PPA price at $0.098/kW. This is likely due, in large part, to its high capacity factor and dispatchability compared to wind and solar.

Figure 3. Project soft costs as a percent of total project costs by type and technology. Source: 2H 2011 REFTI data

Additional insight into balance-of-system (or "soft") costs was gained from the most recent REFTI questionnaire, which asked participants to report various soft costs based on their percentage of total project costs. As illustrated in Figure 3 above, geothermal reported the largest total percentage of soft costs at 15%. Both PV scales reported lower soft costs with wind recording the lowest — at 4.5%. Combined, engineering and interest costs during construction accounted for the largest portion, ranging between 45% and 67%.

See these links for the reports:

Renewable Energy Finance Tracking Initiative (REFTI) Solar Trend Analysis

Renewable Energy Finance Tracking Initiative (REFTI): Snapshot of Recent Geothermal Financing Terms, Fourth Quarter 2009 – Second Half 2011

This article was originally published on NREL Renewable Energy Finance and was republished with permission.

RELATED ARTICLES

Renewable Energy Is Beginning To Power Africa

Andrew Burger, Contributor According to the International Energy Agency, sub-Saharan Africa will require more than $300 billion in investment to achieve universal electricity access by 2030. Committing more than $7 billion in U.S. government support ...

Renewable Power Can Now Flow All Over Europe

Rachel Morison and Weixin Zha After almost two years of delays, Germany, France and their neighbors in central-western Europe connected their electricity markets on Wednesday under a system that lets prices dictate where power flows between countries. F...

Yingli Seeks to Reassure Investors After Stock Plunge

Louise Downing and Justin Doom Yingli Green Energy Holding Co., the second-largest panel maker said it’s confident it can keep making repayments on its debt and that it is taking steps to mitigate risks to its business. It blamed media reports ...
Electric Vehicle

Tesla E-motorcycles Complement SolarCity Microgrids

Mahesh Bhave, Contributor Batteries are the renewed focus of attention given the launch of Tesla’s PowerWall on April 30. What or where might the next major application be? Utility scale storage appears to be one. My thesis is that launching Tesla e...
Ryan Hubbell is a Research Program Participant with the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s project finance team. He has an MBA with concentration in renewable energy development in addition to numerous years of experience in corporate finance ...

CURRENT MAGAZINE ISSUE

03/01/2015
Volume 18, Issue 3
file

STAY CONNECTED

To register for our free
e-Newsletters, subscribe today:

SOCIAL ACTIVITY

Tweet the Editors! @megcichon @jennrunyon

FEATURED PARTNERS



EVENTS

EU PVSEC 2015 (European PV Solar Energy Conference and Exhibition)

The EU PVSEC is the largest international Conference for Photovoltaic re...

CA Wine Industry's 2015 Solar Update- WEBINAR

Proceeds from event registration will go to the CA Sustainable Win...

SMA More Power, More Profit Tour - Duluth

SMA’s More Power, More Profit Tour is aimed to provide highly-valu...

COMPANY BLOGS

EU PVSEC 2014 extends its Scope

Added focus on application and policy topicsAbstracts for conference con...

EU PVSEC 2014: Call for Papers Receives Great Response

More than 1,500 contributions apply for presentation in AmsterdamScienti...

Harnessing the #ElonEffect: Deconstructing the PR Success of Tesla’...

As most of the world has heard by now, Tesla and its co-founder, Elon Mu...

NEWSLETTERS

Renewable Energy: Subscribe Now

Solar Energy: Subscribe Now

Wind Energy: Subscribe Now

Geothermal Energy: Subscribe Now

Bioenergy: Subscribe Now  

 

FEATURED PARTNERS